Posted on 05/07/2002 9:25:33 PM PDT by Enemy Of The State
WASHINGTON WATCH
Cool breezes greet China's designated new leader
By James Borton
Unusually strong spring winds scattered cherry blossoms across Pennsylvania Avenue as Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao was ushered into the West Wing at the White House last week. Some Sino tea-leaf readers and foreign policy pundits were left wondering whether these strong blasts of air blowing through Washington are a sign of things to come.
Hu's visit was largely viewed as an opportunity for the US policy shapers to better assess anticipated changes in the US-Sino relationship expected in the fall after the 16th Communist Party Congress convenes. Hu, the "fourth generation" heir-apparent to Chinese President Jiang Zemin, appeared quietly confident, discreetly aggressive and uncowed under the bright lights and scrutiny of President George W Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Afer all, this is the same media-savvy politician chosen by the Chinese Community Party to address his country after the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The People's Republic of China faces a large number of daunting problems. In China's case, these can be subsumed under two major categories of transition - domestically, to a new generation of leaders, and internationally, to significant changes in geopolitical alignments.
Hu, 59, catapulted to his political trajectory not on the frayed coattails of Jiang, but through the steady guidance and example of the late Deng Xiaoping. After all, Hu was never part of the Shanghai "mafia" that took control of power from Deng in the mid-1990s. This Beijing engineering student's meteoric political ascendancy shot up in 1998 when he was appointed to the key slot of vice president of the Central Military Commission that overseas the People's Liberation Army.
Washington's hawks, led by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, circling Bush's administration remain skeptical about Hu's carefully crafted reformer image displayed at his adroit reshaping of the Central Party School in Beijing. Sources at the Pentagon and at the US State Department know that Hu built his base of power through China's armed forces. China's future leader's authoritarian and decisive actions were displayed to the world in his crushing of the secessionist movement in Tibet. All this makes Bush's Cold War warriors' voices resonate more clearly in the West Wing.
In sharp contrast to this strongman role, the smiling and demure Hu was captured in a grand photo-op at the bell-opening of the New York Stock Exchange. Hu's private thoughts may have been focused not on widerning China's private enterprise incentives, but how to deal with the increasing labor protests and the tripling of unemployment widely expected in coming years.
According to John Tkacik, a China research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, these so-called "fourth generation" Chinese leaders are transitional forces in China's modern political history and most of them view the US as sinister. As China's unemployment escalates daily, attributed to free-market economics, and hundreds of thousands of more state workers join the increasing ranks of protesters, Hu and other new leaders poised to assume greater party influence may gravitate to a more centralized authoritarian style rule and galvanize popular support for flag-waving nationalism. These stern measures may be essential to hold their Middle Kingdom together.
Prior to his arrival in Washington, Hu has told audiences that Beijing is dedicated to building China into a strong, prosperous, democratic and culturally advanced nation while underscoring that China's economic growth will never be a threat to its neighbors. Doubly, China's leadership readily acknowledges that economic relations with the US were essential as the country prepared to enter the World Trade Organization, which it achieved last December. For the US, China holds both promise and danger.
Promise, because US influence can and does prosper enormously through trade and China's continued free-market reforms. Naturally, those multinationals who have already invested billions in China's future recognize the value of this gargantuan market. In 2001, China's total imports and exports exceeded US$500 billion. And with foreign reserves among the highest in the world at $212 billion, business is keenly attentive to any whiff of change in political leadership.
And danger, because the dragon grows stronger both commercially and militarily. Of course, China feels emboldened to counter the US diplomatic offensive. Hu is not averse to bringing to the US attention its selling of tons of weaponry to Taiwan and the ballooning US military defense budget. Meanwhile, Beijing's Foreign Ministry has already warned America that China may have little choice but to increase its production of intercontinental ballistic missles as nonproliferation goes on the geopolitical backburner.
Although the international business community remains hopeful and confident about more engagement and reforms in China's legal system promising investment opportunitiwa, one foreign policy observer declared her strong reservations. "The success of Hu's visit does not mean that there will soon be a major breakthrough in sensitive areas such as Taiwan and weapons proliferation. Hu has always followed the party line and will likely continue to do so," added Veron Mei-Ying Hung, an associate in the China Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Meanwhile, the present steel dispute between the US and China is disturbing. The US is in a paradoxical position defending protectionist practices even as it preaches free trade to those criticized for their closed markets. China has pledged to challenge the higher import tariffs in the WTO.
One of the central and thornier questions in US relations with Taiwan. Hu hangs tough in the hard-liner China camp which claims its own birthright to Taiwan. In deliberately strong language needed to silence sniping critics at home, Hu maintains that Washington must adhere to the one-China policy. Although US leaders such as Secretary of State Colin Powell offered Hu some reassurance about US fealty to the "one China" policy, the recent meeting of top US officials and Taiwan's defense minister places greater political strain on Sino-US relations. While in Washington, Hu's almost placid departure from the Pentagon was rudely interrupted by five demonstrative Taiwanese journalists shouting questions to him about the uncertain future of Taiwan. Hu simply smiled and with a wave, said, "The talks went well."
Congress boosts Israel, rips Arafat
Of course, no weatherman is needed to know which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East. Last week's US Senate vote all but branded Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat a terrorist while extolling almost unanimous support for Israel. This bipartisan vote reinforces the US position on freedom, democracy and its continued war on terrorism. That determined language was reflected in the Senate resolution "to stand in solidarity with Israel, and dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in the Palestinian areas".
Once again. the powerful political constituencies of Jewish Democrats and Christian conservatives complicates the already fragile and unraveling peace process in the Middle East.
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's visit to Crawford, Texas, did not result in any down-home barbecue invitation with President Bush. But the Saudi-proposed peace vision finds surprising support among Bush's inner circle. No initiative in years has evoked nearly as much hope as this plan. At the heart of this utopian proposal is Israel's acceptance of a retreat to its 1967 borders. It makes no difference that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians refuse to accept even these 1967 borders. Most Arabs want to turn the clock back to 1948 and return to the same village life that no longer exists.
Never mind that Bush has made it clear that "peace cannot be imposed" or that the bloodshed continues. This week, when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon visits the White House, insiders expect to witness diplomatic Texas-style arm-wrestling on Israel's acceptance of untenable, but necessary West Bank concessions.
With Jordan's King Abdullah also scheduled to meet Bush in Washington, some Washington observers express doubt that the White House can effectively persuade him to enlist moderate Arab support given the strongly worded pro-Israeli resolutions in both Houses of Congress.
Tested on battlefield and West Wing, Powell is no quitter
Washington politics thrives on rumors. Another one was quashed when Secretary of State Colin Powell made it clear he is not stepping aside despite continued daily frustration at the hands of administration hardliners. This battle between the war-tested and decorated four-star general and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his covey of hawks, designated as "bombers" by Powell, sends only confusing signals to visiting foreign ministers.
One senior Bush insider told Asia Times Online that while Powell is not remotely thinking of bailing out, the secretary was deeply disappointed by his recent trip to the Middle East and frustrated by the continued sniping of Rumsfeld's senior aides at his own policy directives. Despite this, Powell's even-handed brokering approach for mediation between Israeil and Palestine seems to be gaining greater political currency.
Powell's recent victory over Rumsfeld and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz not to march US troops hastily on Baghdad to oust Iraq's strongman Saddam Hussein appears to have solidified his position for now. What chafes at Powell is Rumsfeld's chronic meddling in foreign policy. On Sunday's NBC program Meet the Press, the general played down this discord. "When you have people with strongly held views, you could expect to have these kinds of disagreements from time to time," he said.
Nevertheless, Bush regards these internal salvos as part of the daily optimal dynamic tension in his administration.
Green Berets land in Georgia
With only 20 US advisers now in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, it hardly constitutes a grand troop deployment to support the global war on terrorism. The Bush administration has ordered a $64 million program to assist Georgia in training that nation's feeble military in counterterrorism tactics.
President Eduard Shevardnadze's government has been unable to establish control over the Panskisi Gorge near Cheynya, where armed men - some thought to have links with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network - have found sanctuary.
Pentagon sources have also acknowledged that US military personnel are operating inside Pakistan in liaison with that nation's military as well as sharing intelligence with the more than 7,000 US forces across the border in Afghanistan. Has anyone in Washington taken notice of a recent Gallup Poll of 11 Muslim countries, including US allies, demonstrating daily and growing hostility to America?
Tue May 7,10:00 PM ET
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese President Jiang Zemin (news - web sites) said on Tuesday he was pleased with U.S. President George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s recent comments on Taiwan to China's leader-in-waiting Hu Jintao, state media said.
Jiang told Bush's father, former U.S. President George Bush, that Vice President Hu's much-anticipated American tour last week had been a success.
China regards Taiwan as a renegade province. Washington shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but remains the island's main arms and trading partner.
"I am very glad to hear that President Bush and his chief aides reiterated that the U.S. government would abide by the one China policy and abide by the principles of the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques," the official Xinhua news agency quoted Jiang as saying.
Jiang was speaking during a trip to Shanghai with the elder Bush and former first lady Barbara, who are in China at the invitation of a government body that promotes overseas friendship, Xinhua said.
Chinese officials signalled in advance of Hu's trip to the United States that he would stress China's stance on Taiwan, which has been receiving signs of stronger support from the Bush administration.
Observers said Jiang's little-known heir apparent struck a firm tone in predominately scripted remarks on the issue, which came up in nearly all his meetings with officials in Washington.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue told reporters Hu left "more confident about the future" of Sino-U.S. ties, saying the Americans restated a commitment to a "one China" policy.
Former president Bush repeated that stance on Tuesday and said it was in America's interests to have a vigorous and advancing U.S.-Chinese relationship, according to Xinhua.
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3 communiques... 1.NO military solution. 2.Taiwan can't claim independence.
One China as the US sees it was formed around a party (on Taiwan) who also wanted to claim 'all of China'...thats the whole basis for one-China...
Talking things out is gonna be tougher than fighting a war.
He should tell Abdullah to make up a few beds. Because if I judge Sharon correctly there's going to be a few-hundred thousand more palis coming home to Jordan real soon.
All I can really say is that Sharon sounded really pissed during that press conference. The fecal matter is going to seriously impact the occilating rotator when he gets home! And I think Arafats gonna gat some on him.
Bingo! And the sooner the better. I am sick and tired of handling these murderers and the "religion of peace" with kid gloves. Now I ain't no diplomat and politishun, and mebbe there is more to it than meets mah little ole eye, but it's time these jackals learned exactly what kind of punch both Israel and the U.S. can pack. One can jaw all one wants with these peaceful funeral staging types...but they ain't interested in but one solution. And methinks they're bettin' on the wrong horse. Godspeed Sharon. Do what you gotta do.
Likewise for these scumbag Communist Chinese elite!
The article misses what is occurring: Bush's steel tarriffs are hurting China. Not because they can't export to us but because South Korea and former Soviet Block countries are flooding their market with cheap steel. And it is not only steel. For 15 years, China begged to get into the WTO. Now they are finding they have to compete and they can't. All sorts of products are being dumped on them. They thought joining the WTO would solve their labor problems but it has made them worse.
Good! Perhaps the sneaky slimebags, the Communist Chinese elite -will now have more than enough manpower for them to provide a human seach team -
to find the missile guidance circuitry board taken from that 1996 Chinese satellite launch ie. Loral/Bernard Schwartz!
Loral Shareholders case.
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