Posted on 05/05/2002 8:53:21 AM PDT by Exit 109
With the primary a month away, the three Republican U.S. Senate candidates are poised for a competitive stretch run with the winner possibly being determined during the last weekend of the race.
It won't be an easy sprint: Political observers say the candidates, who have been on the stump for months, are still trying to get Republican voter attention in a race that's being ignored by many party members.
The candidates must now concentrate on the difficult task of attracting support not just from inattentive party members, but party members who regularly vote in primaries.
The battle for the votes of those GOP conservatives, anti-abortionists, women, moderates and other interest groups within the party is especially important this year, as political observers say the race is too close to call. Given an expected low or, at best, moderate turnout at the polls June 4, every vote counts.
That's not lost on the candidates.
"It's difficult," said Sean Kennedy, a spokesman for state Sen. John Matheussen, R-Gloucester, Camden. "The percentages tell you that maybe three out of 10 people are going to vote. You really have to pick and choose what events to attend, who to talk to.
"It's almost more difficult than a general election."
Brian Donahue, a spokesman for state Sen. Diane Allen, R-Burlington, Camden, tries not to dwell on the problem.
"If I thought about the odds, chances and statistics that much, I might as well be playing the slots in Atlantic City," he said.
Voter turnout by the most organized and ideological groups within the party has decided several recent Republican primaries. That generally means conservatives - a group that helped former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler upset former Congressman Bob Franks in last year's GOP gubernatorial primary - help carry the day for their candidate.
Neither Matheussen, Allen, nor former West Windsor Mayor Doug Forrester are considered true conservatives, so it is not clear to whom the conservatives will flock.
Kennedy believes they will swing to anti-abortion Matheussen, even though his votes in the Legislature on a variety of other issues, such as health care, could be considered anything but conservative. He contends that will help Matheussen appeal to "every individual who may vote in the Republican primary.
Donahue said that while Allen is reaching out to a broad spectrum of the state's GOP, she is "energizing" women and mainstream, moderate Republicans in an attempt to bring them to the polls in force.
Moderate Republicans, political observers say, are more representative of the New Jersey GOP as a whole. Observers say those Republicans are growing more upset about conservative-backed GOP candidates who win primaries but lose general elections in a state where voters are considered extreme only in their moderation.
Officials with the Forrester campaign did not respond to requests for comment made over a three-day period.
Geography is another reason why the candidates continue to scramble for attention, money and votes.
Allen and Matheussen are southern New Jersey candidates, a political species that does not do well in statewide races. They usually are considered to have less political clout and resources and smaller voter bases than their counterparts in the northern end of the state.
Only one southern New Jersey candidate has won a statewide general election during the past several decades. That was Democrat Jim Florio, who was elected governor in 1989.
Few people are willing to wager on the outcome of this year's Republican U.S. Senate race.
"Anyone who tells you how the primary is going to turn out is either full of themselves or doesn't know what they're talking about," said Cliff Zukin of Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute of Politics.
Each candidate, he said, has strengths and weaknesses in their bid to challenge the incumbent, U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli, D-N.J.
Matheussen has raised only $30,000, which Zukin said makes it very difficult for him to communicate with voters in the expensive Philadelphia-New York City advertising market on which New Jersey candidates depend.
Allen's stint as an anchorwoman on a Philadelphia-based television news show gives her the biggest name recognition and, therefore, possibly the biggest voting base of the three candidates, Zukin said.
Zukin said it is hardest to define Forrester's voting base, although the millionaire former state pension director will most likely "move to the right" and be even more aggressive with direct mail. That strategy played well for Schundler last year, he said, and Bill Pascoe, the man who ran Shundler's campaign, is running Forrester's federal office bid.
Republican consultant Steven Salmore gives Forrester, by virtue of winning the party lines in heavily Republican areas such as Bergen County, the edge when it comes to a geographic voter base.
Allen, who many conservatives label as liberal because of her stands on gun control, the death penalty and abortion, must at least convince some conservatives that she's fiscally conservative, he said.
"I don't see her making that much of a breakthrough," Salmore said.
Matheussen, he said, "has a real problem."
"Matheussen has no base of support," Salmore said.
About the only thing certain is that Allen, Forrester and Matheussen will throw their campaigns into high gear, and Republicans will see an increase in campaign mailers and television advertisements as the three battle for support.
Two of them were only a few miles apart working Republican organizations in Cape May County on Friday, with Matheussen at the Avalon Country Club and Allen at the Stone Harbor Yacht Club.
Salmore contends one clue to a possible winner can be found in the last 14 days of the campaign.
"Look for who is closing fastest during the last two weeks," Salmore said. "They'll do twice as good during the last weekend (before the primary.)"
That's because, according, to the Clymers, Democrats are all "mainstream" because they happen to share the same values and beliefs as the Clymers, i.e. Partial Birth Abortion is cool and "hip", schools should focus on teaching kids how to have anal sex rather than math and science, gay marriage and gay adoption are unquestionably "good" ideas, racial preferences now and forever, complete gun and political speech bans are allowed by the Constitution, religious people should be barred from public office, etc.
Never mind that the public as a whole is far more Conservative than the Press. The fact is; the media defines "mainstream"/ "moderate" by its standards, not by the standards of the electorate ... and Republicans only shoot themselves in the foot when they let this go unnoticed and stupidly use these terminologies.
"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed citizens [or even just one committed citizen] can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."
A Campaign Plan For Conservative GOP Candidates
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