[mewzilla]

So how many microbiologists of note died, say, during the previous couple of years or so? That might make for an interesting comparison. To see if the death rate has suddenly spiked let's say, especially deaths from unnatural causes...

[tyen]

So how many microbiologists of note died, say, during the previous couple of years or so?

You do not need to know that death rate, only the death rate among the general population to determine the statistical likelihood of this cluster of deaths happening in the observed timeframe. This post from Slashdot is a reasonable back of the envelope estimation of the odds.

For those who do not want to click through, here is the executive summary:

Death rate among 45-64 cohort due to all causes is 708 per 10,000 in general population (source). Factor out medical causes, and it reaches about 200 per 10,000. About 20,000 microbiologists working in the United States. Premise: about half (or 10,000) are over 40. Premise: about half of this over-40 group are prominent enough to attract attention, leaving about 5,000. Premise: rate of death amongst microbiologists is roughly the same as the general population. Observed time frame is 5 months; annual rate of death would be about 10, over 5 months would be about 4.2 deaths.

Using a Poisson distribution ("bell curve" in layman's terms, though that is a rather extreme oversimplification), the probability of 11 deaths in 5 months is about 0.2%. Two-tenths of one percent is about the same probability of drawing two pairs in seven card stud poker, or less than the chance of a major hurricane with 111 mph winds or faster passing within 75 miles of Portland, Maine in any one year.