As Harr stated in a thread last month, let's wait a year and see who is actually using .NET and what its growth has been. We know the use and growth of Java, C++, VB, and ASP because they have been around at least five years. To say that .NET and C# are dead would be clairvoyant, and I don't think any of us is that good. Hell, there were plenty of people putting down Java when I picked it up, and loved it, who said Java was a toy like Visual Basic. Yes, it was at first, but it was a server toy and nice change from client side computing and server side C++ services!
My predictions, what they are worth, are that it will be a typical industry split; 40% to .NET or Java and 60% to the other. They will find their niche markets and the other will have a hard time competing in that market. The companies, Microsoft and Sun, will not be friendly and the developers will be just as bad. The industry will tire of us and decide for itself. Our word will seem to be biased, making the selling of the project hard. Some companies and projects will pick their technology and do very well, while the rest will bicker and fail.
My choice; I will concentrate on .NET while my peer will concentrate on J2EE. We will work together to sell the right solution, and part of that will be the client's personal choice. We will present costs and capabilities, and chose the solution we will present based on actual facts and the needs of our clients. My prediction is that .NET will work best, at the best cost, at least 90% of the time for new projects and it will be a toss up for existing ones. Anyone who has any experience, and has listened to their clients, knows that they will not dump a $10 million Oracle installation for SQL Server, and likewise. .NET will make its best appearance on new projects where the customer wants a fast development time, cheaper costs, including resources, and desires an integrated solution; one product suite for it all. Of course, the J2EE fellow will argue the same thing. Such is technology.