The old software world is dying. Shrink-wrapped CDs you purchase at CompUSA will be completely gone in 5 years. Software is evolving from simple tools to complex, web-enabled "distributed applications".
The same thing that is happening to music -- and is about to happen to movies and TV -- is happening to software. Software is no longer a 'product'. It's now correctly realized to be a 'service'.
By far, most of the tech industry is planning on taking the 'head in the sand' approach for the next few years. Just like the music industry's reaction to online music.
There's a massive glut of technical talent out there.
And no vision in these corps for how to use it.
The corporate executives in charge of making the IT decisions have no idea how to proceed. They're completely baffled by the new world they find themselves in. Someone is going to have to write a best-selling book with a catchy title -- "Swimming with the Software" or "The Software Practices of Atilla the Hun" -- before these executives will flock to the new paradigm.
And when that happens, the cycle will start again.
The biggest trend in this decade will be a focus on core competencies. IT, HR, even repetitive manufacturing will be given to those who can do it best.