With all due respect, if the cardinals elect an Italian, he may or may not be a conservative.
Arinze, the Nigerian, is a wild-card. He is doctrinally conservative, apparently. But, like Supreme Court Justices, one never knows how someone will interpret the inspiration of the Holy Spirit when the Spirit is the only One to whom one must answer.
That sounds exclusively numinous. The Pope, as Vatican I infallibly taught "For the Holy Spirit was not promised to the sucesors of Peter, that by His revelation they might make known new doctrine, but that by His assistance they might inviobaly keep and faithfully expound the revelation or deposit of faith delivered through the Apostles."
I don't know about you, but I don't desire a Pope whose putative afflatus will lead us down wildly unpredictable paths.
I, for one, have had about enough change in my 53 years of life