The Outer Space and Moon Treaties and the Coming Moon Rush

spacedaily.com ^ | 18 Apr 02 | Bill Carswell

[RightWhale]

The Outer Space and Moon Treaties and the Coming Moon Rush

by Bill Carswell

Los Angeles - Apr 18, 2002

Instead of being led by superpowers, the next space race could reasonably be instigated by a developing nation with spacefaring capabilities. An analysis of current events points to China as being a strong candidate for filling this role.

The race would not be a sprint, like the cold war race to the moon, but rather a marathon. The goal of the instigator would be to use lunar resources to build solar power satellites to help develop rural and isolated population centers.

The race would begin when other spacefaring nations decide not to let the instigating country take an uncontested lead in the technologies and capabilities associated with a massive space power capability. Unlike the moon race of the 1960s, which had national prestige as a goal, this phenomenon will more resemble the California gold rush.

Just as the California gold rush happened spontaneously once the riches of gold were discovered in the mountains of California, so too will the moon rush happen spontaneously once a profitable business model is developed for using lunar resources to support the development of large-scale solar power satellite systems. Inevitably, at some point in this process the legal ramifications of the Outer Space and Moon Treaties will become issues.

The "Outer Space Treaty" is the governing United Nations document for international, state-sponsored space activities. Nearly all of the UN member nations have ratified this treaty. Another treaty, the "Moon Treaty," has also been opened for signature by the United Nations.

However, due to its provisions prohibiting the ownership of natural real estate in space, the treaty was virtually ignored by the world community. Only nine countries have ratified it and just five others have signed it. The cold shoulders it received from the primary spacefaring nations have all but sealed its fate as an irrelevant document in the larger scheme of space development.

Both of these treaties, the Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty, have generated much discussion and speculation regarding the impact they might have on space, especially lunar, development.

The problem with these discussions is that once an organization decides, for whatever reason, to begin extracting, processing and using or selling the lunar regolith, for example, it's very unlikely that either of these treaties will influence that decision. The following scenario illustrates this point.

China presents an interesting example for a lunar development scenario. China is not a third world country when it comes to their space program capabilities. They are very close to being able to put a human in orbit, and as Jane's Online reports, they are aggressively moving to be able to do just that. Furthermore, China has evidenced its willingness to invest in other space activities.

Lunar Enterprise Daily recently reported that Chinese President Jiang Zemin has made the first official announcement of his country's intentions to build human-attended space stations.

Another recent report in a SpaceDaily article on Xynergy Corporation's plans to demonstrate space-to-earth power beaming states, "China has agreed to purchase a power plant (solar power satellite) system of its own upon completion of the CSPIE's (Corporate Space Power Industries and Electric, Inc., a Xynergy partner) first successful demonstration. China has a special interest due to its environmental problems."

If China does decide to undertake space-to-earth power beaming, the scenario could easily have them capitalizing on lunar resources to accomplish their goals. After the first demonstration with Xynergy they would have to begin looking at the economics of large-scale activities.

Clearly, at this point it makes sense to start using lunar materials for space activities. Four separate studies, two funded by NASA and two funded by the Space Studies Institute, agreed that "at least 90% of solar power satellites could be built from nonterrestrial materials at great reduction to overall system cost."

Obviously many technical challenges remain to be overcome before that much of the system can be manufactured in space and it must be acknowledged that the cost estimates in these studies were carried out based strictly on mass consideration without regard to technology development and production costs.

However, it would be reasonable to start with the processing of lunar regolith into crude structural support materials for the photovoltaic farms, or using lunar water for station-keeping fuel. These would be very simple processes taking very little in the form of on-orbit sophistication. As these processes matured and the infrastructure needed to support them properly were developed, more complicated processing techniques could be employed, such as manufacturing photovoltaic cells from lunar regolith.

Once these space power and lunar resource utilization activities have begun, other countries will feel compelled to match those efforts. The response of the United States is an example worth considering. When a credible effort is undertaken to begin using the resources of the moon to develop a significant power collection and transmission capability in space, the United States will respond for several reasons.

The first is that its general public general public will feel threatened. The public likely will not understand the intricate details of the technical and political issues, but it will be afraid of the idea that another nation might capture and control "the high ground." The military will rightfully fear that any state with control of that much power in space is a force to be concerned about. They will demand that the United States build its own power farms in space as well.

Finally the entrenched, established business communities will finally develop a credible economic model based on real cost numbers and be driven by the profit motive to join the effort. Other nations are also likely to join the fray as well. Japan, according to press reports, is already planning a solar power satellite demonstration project. The next space race, the moon rush, will have begun. And this time it will be here to stay.

Where do the Outer Space and Moon treaties fit into all of this? The Moon Treaty doesn't, really. Realistically it's a meaningless document that isn't going to deter the majority of the spacefaring nations from using lunar resources.

The European Space Agency may have a problem with it since France has signed the treaty and both The Netherlands and Austria actually went so far as to ratify it. A 1996 paper by Dr. Hanneke L. van Traa-Engelman of The Netherlands acknowledges that lunar activities could become an important factor in commercial space development and suggests that the Moon Treaty needs to be reassessed.

Van Traa-Engelman believes that particular attention needs to be paid to the Moon Treaty's article XI provisions that the moon is the common heritage of mankind and that an international regime should be established to govern the exploitation of the moon when such activities become feasible.

These are precisely the reasons why most countries refused to accept the Moon Treaty. But with three member countries having ratified or signed it, the European Space Agency may have a problem participating in the moon rush when it finally takes place.

Most space-faring nations, however, have ratified the Outer Space Treaty, including The Russian Federation, the United States and China. But even with these ratifications in place the treaty may have little effect on attitudes toward lunar development.

As evidenced by its actions in the International Space Station program The United States in particular seems willing to abrogate international treaties and agreements when they become inconvenient. But, if one assumes for the sake of argument that all member states will make a conscientious effort to abide by the letter, if not the spirit, of the Outer Space Treaty, what might be the implications?

According to some analysts, such as Glenn Harlan Reynolds , the Outer Space Treaty doesn't impose any egregious restrictions on the commercial development of the moon. The Outer Space Treaty prohibits national appropriation, not private appropriation of lunar resources.

In fact it was this very loophole, according to Reynolds, that was the main driver behind the drafting of the Moon Treaty. If this is the case then it appears that the Outer Space Treaty presents no real impediment to lunar resource utilization by commercial entities.

But there are those who disagree with this analysis. Virgiliu Pop cogently sums up the arguments of that opposing camp, concluding that for a private appropriation of land to survive it must be endorsed by a state, but that state endorsement of a private appropriation is interpreted legally as a form of state appropriation and is therefore disallowed by the Outer Space Treaty.

Therefore, in order for a private appropriation to succeed, according to Pop, the state that is sponsoring, and more importantly protecting, the landowner must abrogate the Treaty. But Pop does not discuss the scenario of a private appropriation by an organization not seeking the endorsement, and therefore the protection, of a sovereign state.

Many companies have, over the years, sent expeditions to the far corners of the world without state-sponsored protection. It seems reasonable that someday a company will decide to accept the risk of sending an expedition to the moon without state-sponsored protection, especially since the moon has no hostile populations to threaten an excavating crew.

It is easy to envision a scenario in which a forward-looking, space-faring and developing country like China, or maybe even India, undertaking a lunar development activity and sparking the next great space race, the moon rush. The Moon Treaty is no impediment, and the Outer Space Treaty is acknowledged as debatable on the issue of private appropriation of lunar materials.

With low-cost space-to-earth solar power beaming projects already on two drawing boards, the time seems to be rapidly approaching when the use of lunar materials for space power satellite construction will become a reality.

The biggest obstacle to these lunar activities will not be the legal issues behind the Outer Space and Moon Treaties, but the materials processing capabilities that have yet to be demonstrated.

Therefore an aggressive effort is recommended to begin using the International Space Station to demonstrate the lunar materials processing techniques that will be needed in the future.

[RightWhale]

We support the privatization of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

The Ls ought to want NASA shut down altogether since there is nothing there the private sector wants.

[RightWhale]

the American reaction would be to a Chinese space platform

Americans would be like, ho-hum, so what's on MTV?

[demlosers]

Unbelievable - you get a Chinese flag on the profile and all of a sudden I'm an unreconstructed Communist!

Gee I wonder where we got this idea from? You sure sound like someone who believes in collectivism.

[gwynapnudd]

I assumed you were refering to the third. You seem to be inclined in that direction.

[Tuor]

To be perfectly honest with you, if I were ever to go into space, I'd like to see *no* flags on board.

As to thinking America should be first: that is because we have the expertese and the money to do it. I'm not a socialist, so I don't believe in giving handouts to other countries in this or any other regard. If they can get into space, then they should do it, not expect the US to hold their hands or help them. This, in fact, might help provide some competition and act as a spur to all nations.

I do think that if science ever develops a way to control of offset the limitations imposed by gravity, it should be freely distributed...the theories, that is, not the applications.

People don't get enthusiastic over things like the ISS. They do sometimes get that way over what they consider specially theirs...something local or national. Yes, for one shining moment, Apollo 11 represented all of Mankind, transending nationalism to embrace the planet. But only Americans had that extra warmth of knowing that *we* did it and did it first...that only Americans have ever been on the Moon (as far as I know).

This is also why I support the idea of corperations and individuals getting involved in space: they will definitely be competitive and push the edge of the envelope when it comes to getting into space and to providing *jobs* in space.

As I've said before, you can only really learn about being in space by being in space. NASA isn't getting us there. We need to find another way.

Tuor

[dead]

Quite so - how on Earth did you contrive that I was talking about America's "poor"?

From the following comment:

I'm sure America has enough problems at home with dominating the world's economy and keeping the poor where they are in order to line the right pockets.

I didn’t realize that you were blaming America for China’s poverty. I have news for you – we don’t “keep the poor where they are” in other nations. Their (marxist and otherwise) governments do that for them.

Stop blaming far off nations for your ills and try to better your lot through your own labor and political decisions. We are not your mommy.

[hopespringseternal]

We're not the landlords, we're part of the whole scheme of things. It doesn't do well to foul your own nest.

Oh fess up. You are really Laz having a joke on us and ridiculting the luddite libs at the same time.

[Willie Green]

When it comes to outer space, no one is more out there than the Libertarian party:

If Libertarians can figure out a way to grow dope on the moon, good for them.
Just so long as they don't try to ship it back here.

[Mr. Thorne]

The American one, naturally - I was referring to the death of the Empire system, which can be said to have begun at that time.

I honestly doubt that.

Oh, it's arguable, since no modern empire calls itself such, but puh leeez!

What was the USSR, if not an empire? What is Red China? Besides a workers paradise, of course.

Empire is arguably, barring a new civilizational paradigm, the natural state of man. Also, historically, the most stable.

And, to paraphrase Arthur Clarke, if mankind is to survive for any measurable length of time, the word 'ship' must refer to 'spaceship.'

Unfortunately, the noble ideals you have expressed are seldom enough to engender in a man a desire to risk life and limb.

It'll be fortune and glory that pulls man to the planets, and even to the stars. Same as every other human migration. The initial explorations will be done for glory (see Shackleton), they'll go just because 'it's there.' Then will come the fortune hunters. They will see the potential for wealth, either as entrepeneurs or as employees. They'll go to avoid the hand of oppressive government. They will be followed by people providing services for them (not for nothing is it called the oldest profession).

Earth is far too fragile a basket for man to leave all of his eggs in it.

Government? Piffle. NASA killed the Saturn 5 rocket, the most powerful lifting engine ever invented. They have prohibitions against experimentation by the private sector. In the meantime, they worry about funding and safety. They dare not try anything too far out, lest it cost too much or kill somebody. Which would lose funding. And round and round we go...

There are, literally, thousands of citizens in the USA at this moment who would give their right arm to get into space. Why can't they? They're not allowed. These people would sign a release in an instant if it got them to Luna, or into orbit.

Men Wanted For Hazardous Journey.
Small wages, bitter cold, long months of
complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful.
Honor and recognition in case of success.

Shackleton received several THOUSAND responses to that advertisement in an English paper. Maybe NASA should get a clue...

[vannrox]

...
Authorization to proceed with the 921-2 space station came in February 1999, with the first design review in May. A vacuum chamber with a diameter of 7 meters and a height of 12 meters had already been built to test the station. First launch may be expected no earlier than 2002, with a slow rate of assembly of the space station thereafter. Image copyright Mark Wade.

China Prepares Plan For Space Station As China Eyes Manned Mission

by Wei Long


Beijing - June 12, 2000 - China is planning to orbit its own space station via a three phased plan says a technical report made public here last Thursday (June 8).


The Chinese Academy of Engineering held a "Frontiers of Engineering Technology" meeting which was well attended by both academics and industry. During the meeting, thirteen members of the Academy presented oral and written reports on more than ten topics to some 500 people.


Representing the space sector was Wang Yongzhi, the chief manned spaceflight engineer and designer.


According to the Liberation Daily newspaper, Wang wrote in his report, titled "Chinese Manned Spaceflight", that the Chinese space engineering community would go through three phases to achieve the ultimate goal of establishing a permanently manned space station.


The first phase would be launching a manned spacecraft over a series of unmanned and manned flights, delivering yuhangyuan ("astronauts") to near-Earth orbit and returning them to Earth safely. While in orbit yuhangyuan would conduct earth observations and space experiments.


The focus of the second phase is undertaking spacewalking activities (EVAs), docking and related tests, and the launching of a space laboratory which would only be man-tended on a short-term basis and left in an automated mode between visits.


The third phase is the construction of a larger lab that would form China's first space station and which would be permanently manned.


The Liberation Daily, however, did not report a timeline for the various phases.


Wang wrote, "The manned spacecraft engineering project is by far the largest, most complex and technically difficult in the history of the Chinese space program.


There are four basic task objectives for the manned spacecraft:


achieve a breakthrough in manned spaceflight fundamental technologies;
conduct experiments in earth observations, space sciences and space technologies;
provide an early transportation vehicle between Earth and outer space;
and accumulate experience for a manned space station system.


The manned spacecraft project consists of seven components, they are: yuhangyuan system; spacecraft utilization system; manned vehicle system; launcher system; launch range system; and landing system.


Wang said that research and development of the manned spacecraft project would go through the stages of design, early research and prototyping, final construction and unmanned test flights, and manned test flights.


"China would aim at conducting fewer unmanned test flights than the former Soviet Union and the United States before sending the first human crew into space," said Wang The chief manned spaceflight engineer and designer further said Wang.


China successfully tested its future manned spacecraft, Shenzhou, for the first time in an unmanned flight in November 1999.


Comparing the yuhangyuan project to other Chinese space projects, Wang said that it was far more complex, and would entail the combination of medical and engineering aspects of manned space travel, along with other important areas of science such as space life sciences and space medical engineering.


The project is also responsible for selecting and training yuhangyuan to carry out various tasks in space missions, providing yuhangyuan effective medical monitoring and protection, and developing space food and other essential articles.


The first group of yuhangyuan are fighter pilots who are on active duty. They were chosen after many rounds of selection. These yuhangyuan have undergone three stages of basic training, skills training, and finally integrated training for spacecraft operations.


The report declared that after seven years of difficult work, the basic tasks objectives of the manned spacecraft project, codenamed Project 921, and the component systems have all been reached.

[Brett66]

the moon landings were a HOAX

Yes they were. NASA billed it as mankind reaching out and leaving Earth. As it was, we went and stopped going. The nation that lost the moon.

[AFreeBird]

Asteroid mining is the way to go as far as I know.

The nuclear interplanetary shuttle has no mission, nor will ever have a mission worth the trouble.

Agree with the mining of asteroids. Disagree that such a shuttle would be worthless. First off its design could be the framework for a space truck for getting mining spoils back to Earth, or Moon, or where ever they would be processed. Two, there are no doubt other bodies to be explored and resources to be retrieved from other areas of the solar system. Why not have a nuclear powered craft that doesn't require the massive amounts of conventional fuel now used?

[Brett66]

Space is there to explore, not to exploit.

You realize that this argument has already lost. There are thousands of people working on plans to get us into space and back to the moon. It has already started and it's too late to stop it. We'll see the first lunar hotels in thirty years. Even sooner if China's efforts prod us along. (which seems likely) Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

[AFreeBird]

Its not ours and we should explore, but not exploit.

Umm.... so, we should continue exploiting the resources we need here on Earth then?

If it is not ours (Earth Human's) to claim, then whoose is it? I don't see any other inhabited worlds within the sphere of influence that can lay a claim.

Would we infriging on the rights of the native Moonies (or is that Mooners) too?

I know I know, the "Save the Man in the Moon" society will get their panties in a wad because we defaced the man in the moon. That must be it.

[Brett66]

the American reaction would be to a Chinese space platform

Americans would be like, ho-hum, so what's on MTV?

They're getting ready to send Lance Bass of N'Sync to the ISS later this year. I hope that maybe,just maybe, this will be a "Sputnik moment" for this current generation. And once again, it's the Russians behind it. ;)

[RightWhale]

I was thinking of how a nuke shuttle might be used in actuality besides exploration of the deep solar system. The quantity of material that would be moved from the Mars-Jupiter Asteroid Belt in a commercial enterprise would be significant tonnage but nuke shuttles wouldn't pay their own way. Another propulsion technique, one with a much higher ISP, is required. Plasma or ion propulsion is what I looked at when I wrote my analysis almost a 1/4 century ago.

If there were a manned base on or orbiting Mars, a nuke shuttle might be convenient to reduce transit time for the crews, but not necessary.

Aside from those two uses, I don't see commercial viability for the nuke shuttle.

[RightWhale]

Lance Bass should go, everyone should go. There's only so many Major Toms, so interest will be fleeting.

[Rodney King]

The moon belongs to no-one except the Universe.

Duuude. Like, that's totally deep, man.