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U.S. ready in case of major exodus from Cuba *** Coast Guard cutters operating off South Florida's shores have picked up fewer Cuban migrants in the first three months of the year than Haitians and Dominicans combined. But the absence of large numbers of Cuban migrants headed for South Florida may be the calm before the storm. A wave of repression in Cuba in recent weeks has been so alarming that U.S. officials have begun to wonder whether Cuba may unleash a new Mariel-style exodus -- a typical Cuban response in times of crisis. American officials are so worried that they have already quietly advised Cuba not to attempt any such action. But if a new exodus occurs, officials say they will activate a classified federal contingency plan designed to deal with migrant surges. Operation Distant Shore would trigger a dramatic escalation in the number of Coast Guard and other military vessels patrolling the Florida Straits -- a veritable floating wall designed to interdict as many migrants as possible at sea.

…………………. Greenhill, a research fellow at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, said the circumstances of the current Cuban crisis should be monitored closely for signs of a possible new exodus. ''I would say that the situation bears close watching,'' he said. But he added that Castro might think twice before sanctioning a new exodus. ''I don't think it's impossible we could see another outflow,'' Greenhill said, ``but if I were Castro, I'd think long and hard about launching an engineered migration this time around, given the prevailing environment in the aftermath of Sept. 11 and Iraq. The world looks different today than it did in 1965, 1980 and 1994.''***

CUBA AND THE UN: A FIVE-ACT TRAGEDY REALITY IS WORSE THAN FICTION *** We arrive, therefore, at the final question: If this isn't the right organization to issue a ringing endorsement of human rights in Cuba on behalf of the world community, what is? We don't believe that the United Nations is obsolete. It has been, is and will continue to be a force for good. Whether it should be reorganized to be more effective is a worthy topic for another discussion. But the Human Rights Commission's behavior in Geneva proves that even forces for good can be thwarted by human beings bent on evil. The fact that its chair this year is Libya and that several countries with a similarly soiled record of human rights sit on the panel makes this commission less than it should be.

WILL RIGHTS BE PROTECTED?

Supporters of Cuban dissidents were right to settle for half a loaf, but we have to ask: If the commission can't use diplomacy to fulfill its most basic mandate -- to spotlight aberrant international behavior and use diplomatic means to redress such behavior -- of what use is diplomacy? When the issue arises again before the commission, as it surely will, it will be good to remember the events of the last few weeks.

The issue is not whether human rights are being abused in Cuba. That question has been asked and answered to the satisfaction of everyone who doesn't wear ideological blinders. The question is whether the commission that is supposed to protect and nurture human rights will be ready to fulfill its duties, or whether, in a world that professes disgust for totalitarian governments, it is already hopelessly out of touch.

A strong condemnation of Cuba would be a signal that, for a change, the world is watching the repugnant actions of Fidel Castro and is ready to declare his government an outcast; that the world understands that Castro's dispute isn't with the United States but with his own people; and that it stands ready to say, with Saramago, ``This is as far as we go.''***