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Another coup attempt in Venezuela? Sources say rebellion imminent if Chavez continues in office*** A second military rebellion against President Hugo Chavez will erupt in a matter of weeks if the Venezuelan leader does not resign soon or is not legally or constitutionally removed, according to the prediction of STRATFOR sources with the country's National Armed Forces and a government civilian security entity.

Even if unsuccessful, sources said, the second attempt to topple Chavez likely will be violent and will affect at least a half-dozen major garrisons simultaneously, demonstrating that the president does not control the deeply divided military.

If the reports are accurate, fighting likely would erupt between military units in different garrisons, and the resulting bloodshed could push Venezuela to the edge of a civil war, especially if the Chavez regime calls on the civilian Bolivarian Circles for its defense.***

139 posted on 05/17/2002 4:15:27 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuelan Coup Disrupting Oil to Cuba [Full Text] HAVANA (AP) - Venezuela has not yet resumed shipments of 53,000 barrels a day of oil that Cuba received before the failed April 11 coup against President Hugo Chavez, Basic Industry Minister Marcos Portal said Thursday.

"It is possible that it will be re-established in the coming months," Portal told a news conference. Under an October 2000 agreement between Chavez and Cuban President Fidel Castro Venezuela was supplying the oil to Cuba on special terms, allowing it 15 years to pay and charging 2 percent a year interest on amassed debt.

Venezuela signed similar agreements with other countries in Central America and the Caribbean. During the two days when Chavez briefly lost control, Venezuelan oil company officials announced a series of changes that included an end of oil shipments to Cuba. [End]

140 posted on 05/17/2002 4:16:15 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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