First, when the State of New York realizes less revenue from tobacco taxes than it had expected, there will be pressure to close the "Internet loophole" that lets smart New Yorkers buy their smokes tax-free. You can't really expect a cut in the health programs the tax is supposed to benefit. Those are vital, don't you know?
Look for the Indian tribes to join the clamor for taxing Internet purchases, just as they do doubt celebrated this latest tax increase. Higher prices elsewhere will bring people to the reservation to shop.
Then there's the nightmare scenario.
Even after plugging the Internet loophole and putting a duty on imported cigarettes, tax revenues drop considerably because for whatever reasons people smoke less than before.
What would the State of New York's next move be to salvage its bloated health-care system?
You got it: Promote smoking.
Who is more addicted... Smokers to nicotine, or government to tobacco tax money?
While it is unlikely to happen, especially in the near to not so distant future, I would like to see the tobacco companies stand up and say they are not going to take it anymore and pull all their tobacco products from the shelves and cease selling their tobacco products in America. Combine that with my above question and who would be rioting, smokers or government? The shit would really hit the fan and it would be a pleasure to watch the government, federal and state, go into full blown cardiac arrest.
May even subsidize smokes. :-}