Monday's Stock Market WrapUp

You have a charming faith in the reports about "The housing industry." Did you know that new housing starts dropped 17% in January, and a like number in February?

What's that? You were told they increased 17%?

Welcome to the world of "seasonal adjustments," pal. If you believe these clintonian numbers, fine--knock yourself out and "buy the dips." Just don't mislead the more trusting readers here into thinking a stock market with declining profits and 40+ price to earnings is a great investing opportunity.

OK, I'm game.

Over the weekend, a relative gave me more than 200 German 100-mark notes issued between 1903 and 1910. You may call this "emotion based dislike of our fiat currency." It reads like a fact to me.

When issued, they were worth just under $25 -- i.e., more than an ounce of gold. You may call this "emotion based dislike of our fiat currency." It reads like a fact to me.

I was recently apprised that they are now worth between $0 and $0.07. You may call this "emotion based dislike of our fiat currency." It reads like a fact to me.

They were demonetized following the German inflation of 1923.You may call this "emotion based dislike of our fiat currency." It reads like a fact to me.

Just on the off chance you're with me so far, where does that leave us? I posted these remarks on a stock market thread, citing to a observation that Japanese are losing confidence in paper. It's reasonable to read into my insertion of this litany of facts onto this thread a suggestion that the Japanese yen will become as worthless as (at least paper) Imperial Reichsmarks. After all, before WWI, the 5-yen coin contained nearly an eighth ounce of gold (.1205 oz). While the subsequent inflation of the yen has not constituted hyperinflation, particularly over the course of nearly 90 years, I support the concern expressed by (at least some) Japanese that their currency may well be headed the way of the Imperial Reichsmark.

Is the U.S. dollar approaching the same fate. No doubt, you are far more qualified to opine on this topic than I.

When did I say the stock market was a "great investing opportunity"? All I did was point out some of the major differences between the Japaneese economy and the American economy. I get so tired of people using this website as a place to make poorly reasoned attacks on other posters. FR is not meant to be a place for you to twist other people's words around so you can vent your frustrations against other posters. By the way, seasonal adjustments have been a standard pratice in the world of statistics for decades. They are not an invention of the Clinton Administration or any other administration.

Re #22

People are naturally afraid of waking up from sustained euphoria. They tend to look for many clever justifications for even more boom, probably proceded by short downturn. It all depends on sustaining the euphoric psychology. Instead a boom creating euphoria, euphoria is propped up by PR and credit expansion to sustain the boom.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.