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To: vannrox
Must be a slow news day.  Similar theories by the Russian Immanuel Velikovsky were totally discounted.  Even the Dems can't negate the law of conservation of angular momentum.  Sounds like more junk science.
16 posted on 03/25/2002 3:56:37 PM PST by The UnVeiled Lady
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To: The UnVeiled Lady
There's a HUGE differnce between Velikovsky (who was full of it and has been totally discredited, though there's still a hard-core foil hat brigade that promotes him) and this. Velikovsky thought planets were flying around recently...in human history, causing disasters.

This is talking about stuff billions of years ago.

21 posted on 03/25/2002 5:00:57 PM PST by John H K
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To: The UnVeiled Lady

Sorry, but you are incorrect. You are perhaps referring to the Sagan event? While all well and good for his posturing of academic status quo, his objections were found to be more emotionally sound than relational.

Actually a large number of his theories have been confirmed during the late 1980's and the 90's. Historians generally shrug off his theories, for the most part, however, geologists now are firmly camped in the doctrine of catastrophe theory. It is actually taught in schools and is now fundamental in the study of earth sciences. Check out "Catastrophe Theory by Alexander Woodcock and Monte Davis. ISBN 0-525-07812-6.

For a summary of the poor handling of the matter by Carl Sagan, I suggest you read "Carl Sagan & Immanuel Velikovsky" by Charles Ginenthal ISBN 1-56184-075-0.

Certainly there is a large non-mainstream contigent that ascribes to the Velikovsky theories. Colin Wilson who wrote "From Atlantis to the Sphinx" ISBN 0-88064-176-2, Graham Hancock "Fingerprints of the Gods" ISBN 0-517-88729-0, "The Sirius Mystery" by Robert Temple. ISBN 0-89281-750-X, "The Atlantis Blueprint" by Colin Wilson and Rand Flem-Ath. ISBN 0-385-33479-6 and of course all of David Hatcher Childress and Zecharia Sitchin. But from their humble beginnings and followings a number of very serious investigations were found to support some, and some very surprising predictions and theories.

Modern Archaeologists are now beginning to embrace the theories of Hugh Fox "Gods of the Cataclysm" (RARE BUT EXCELLENT) ISBN 0-06-122496-0. Supported by the textbook "Archaelology" by Paul Bahn. ISBN 0-500-27867-9. And the most controversial of all is the "Forbidden Archeology" by Cremo and Thompson. ISBN 0-89213-294-9.

I know that it is alot of fun to debunk others. And point out their fallicies. But the truth is that Velikovskies theories have been gaining substantial acceptance from a number of braches of the sciences.


32 posted on 03/25/2002 6:18:10 PM PST by vannrox
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To: The UnVeiled Lady
Must be a slow news day. Similar theories by the Russian Immanuel Velikovsky were totally discounted.

As I see it, it's more than most people could do to try to completely run to ground more than a handful of lines of evidences involved in the Velikovsky controversies and see where they lead, particularly for people who still have to work for a living and have limited resources for hobbies.

Nonetheless, I have made the effort to do that in a few cases and, in every instance in which I have, the raw evidence unequivocably supports Velikovsky and damns Sagan and pretty much all of Velikovsky's later-day critics.

One such case is the question of thermal balance on Venus and the various infrared flux meters andmeasurements of Albedo which were taken around 1978 - 1980 by the Pioneer Venus probe.

There are two possible explainations for the 1000 F surface temperature of Venus: Velikovsky's, which is that Venus is in a process of cooling either from a recent creation or from heat generated during recent catastrophic events (i.e. is natively hot), and Carl Sagan's "super greenhouse" theory, which is standard doctrine amongst astronomers, despite being ridiculous.

Sagan in fact is also noted for another super greenhouse theory, i.e. the one which says we should all be dead from the Kuwaiti oil fires in 91.  Far as I know, I'm still here and Sagan is still dead.  In fact, people living in Kuwait are still alive, and Sagan is still dead...

Sagan's theory would require that Venus' atmosphere be in thermal balance, i.e. since all the heat would be derived from the sun, heat taken in and given out should equal eachother.

I have noted that this is in sharp disagreement with with actual findings, and that astronomers have made a habit of doctoring the findings and have actually found themselves in the position of having to explain AWAY 100% of the raw data. All of the probes which carried infra-red flux (upward vs. downward readings) meters to the surface measured a sharp upward ir flux, which is in keeping with Velikovsky's version, but not that of Sagan.

Astronomers have posted oficial position papers (Revercomb/Suomi et. al) explaining the manner in which each and every such probe "failed", without bothering to try to explain why they should not all be summarily shitcanned for failing to oversee the proper manufacture of so simple an instrument in even one case out of at least four (instruments were not all the same).

And then there is the question of F.W. Taylor's description of massive thermal imbalance as measured from outside the atmosphere (from the article on thermal balance by F.W. Taylor in "VENUS", Hunton, Colin, Donahue, Moroz, Univ. of Ariz. Press, 1983, ISBN 0-8165-0788-0, pp 657-658).

"Measurements of albedo are more difficult to calibrate than those of thermal flux, because of the problem of obtaining an accurate reference source. Using earth-based measurements, Irvine (1968) calculated a value for A [albedo] of 0.77 ñ 0.07, which was later revised upward to 0.80 ñ 0.07 by Travis (1975). The Pioneer Venus infrared radiometer had a 0.4 to 4.0 m channel calibrated by a lamp from which Tomasko et al. (1980b) obtained a preliminary albedo for Venus of 0.80 ñ 0.02.

"Another approach to determining the albedo is simply to assume that the atmosphere is in net radiative balance, whence the equation:


                         (1-A)E
                    4          0
       sigma * theta   = ---------
                    b      a^2

    should apply.  Here E  is the solar constant, and a the distance
                         0

from the sun. This expression allows the albedo to be calculated from thermal measurements alone."

"In this way, a value of 0.79 + 0.02 - 0.01 has been obtained from Venera radiometry (Ksanfomality, 1977, 1980b) and [a value] of 0.76 ñ 0.006 [has been obtained] from Pioneer Venus emission measurements (Schofield et al., 1982).

"Clearly the Pioneer measurements of emission and reflection are not consistent with each other if net radiative balance applies. (Emphasis added.) A source inside Venus equal in magnitude to 20% of the solar input (i.e., accounting for the difference between A = 0.76 and A = 0.80) is very unlikely, since Venus is thought to have an Earth-like makeup, which would imply internal heat sources several orders of magnitude less than this. Also, even if such sources were postulated, it is difficult to construct a model in which these fairly large amounts of heat can be transported from the core to the atmosphere via a rocky crust without the latter becoming sufficiently plastic to collapse of the observed surface relief. This could be avoided if the transport was very localized, i.e., via a relatively small number of giant volcanoes. Although large, fresh-looking volcanoes do appear to exist on Venus...and the composition of the atmosphere is consistent with vigorous output from these, a simple comparison with terrestrial volcanism shows that the volcanic activity on Venus would have to be on an awesome scale to account for the missing 5 X 1015 W [watts], or so, of power. A more acceptable alternative is that the preliminary estimate of 0.80 ñ 0.2 for the albedo from the P. V. [Pioneer Venus] measurements is too high, since the uncertainty limit is now known from further work to be too conservative. (J. V. Martonchik, personal communication.) A fuller analysis of the P. V. [Pioneer Venus] albedo data--still the best, in terms of wavelength, spacial and phase coverage, and radiometric precision, which is likely to be obtained for the foreseeable future--is likely to resolve this puzzle. In conclusion, then, the best thermal measurements of Venus WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE yield a value for the albedo of 0.76 ñ 0.1; this is the most probable value."

Let's examine what Taylor is saying. The term "albedo", stripped of the four-syllable adjectives, is a measure of reflectivity, the percentage of light which bounces back from something.

Taylor is saying that there are two ways to measure this albedo, a direct method, and an indirect method involving a formula which relates albedo to thermal emissions, assuming thermal balance holds. The direct method:

        "The Pioneer Venus infrared radiometer had a 0.4 to 4.0 m channel calibrated         by a lamp from which Tomasko et al. (1980b) obtained a preliminary albedo         for Venus of 0.80 ñ 0.02."

doesn't go into detail, but makes it clear that they either did one of the following things, or something entirely like one of them:

a. Brought the satellite to the dark side of Venus, beamed a light towards Venus, and measured how much of that light returned.

b. Brought the satellite to the light side of Venus, and simply turned the instrument towards the sun, and then towards Venus, and computed a ratio of the light intensities.

Taylor also mentions the indirect method:

        "Another approach to determining the albedo is simply to assume that the         atmosphere is in net radiative balance, whence the equation:


                         (1-A)E
                    4          0
       sigma * theta   = ---------
                    b      a^2


        should apply.  Here E-zero  is the solar constant, and a the distance         from the sun. This expression allows the albedo to be calculated from         thermal measurements alone.

He notes that, if thermal balance does hold, the two techniques should produce the same number, but that they don't, and that the difference is so great, that a massive heat source on Venus would be needed to explain it, entirely in keeping with Velikovsky's version of the entire thing.

He notes that further study is needed, since he sees no way for Venus to have such a heat source given standard versions of solar-system history, and that the .76 value derived for albedo is therefore the "most probable" value.

He notes that the Pioneer Venus readings are the best we've had and the best we're likely to get for a long time:

        A fuller analysis of the P. V. [Pioneer Venus] albedo data--still the best,         in terms of wavelength, spacial and phase coverage, and radiometric         precision, which is likely to be obtained for the foreseeable future--is         likely to resolve this puzzle.

Thus between the infra-red flux meters of the descender probes and the phenomena Taylor describes, all of the raw data flatly contradict Sagan and "super-greenhouse", and scientists are left having to explain away 100% of the raw data.   That's no way to do science.

43 posted on 03/25/2002 7:51:31 PM PST by medved
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