It was a good movie. I think it should win because there was real acting, singing and dancing and get sets and costumes. What else does one need for a movie?! ;-)
If there was a serious challanger to Beautful Mind to split the vote, I think Moulin Rouge would win-but alas Hollywood wants to 'feel important' and Opie Cunningham's film will take the top prize.
I also like Jennifer Connelly and Gay Sir Ian in the Supporting categories..Lord of the Rings will be thrown a bone.