Posted on 03/14/2002 6:58:03 AM PST by Stand Watch Listen
Ballistic missile defense has undergone fundamental changes over the past few months. Global politics, technology, budgets and inter-service rivalries are all playing their part in shaping the new landscape. Some-where in this mixture are the needs of the military forces and civilian populations that face an increasing threat, writes Mark Hewish
In a series of recent interlinked moves, the US has reshuffled the cards in its ballistic missile defense (BMD) pack. The outcome is still uncertain, with shifts in direction occurring almost daily. In January 2002, the country's Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) was redesignated the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). Elevation to agency status recognizes the increased national priority and mission emphasis assigned to BMD, according to the Department of Defense (DoD).
Until recently, the US has divided BMD into two segments: national missile defense, focused on protecting the United States from limited, accidental or unauthorized launches of missiles with intercontinental range; and theater air and missile defense, intended to defend deployed troops, military assets and infrastructure overseas against missiles with ranges of about 3,000km or less.
The US has now reoriented its approach to one that emphasizes a multilayered defense encompassing all three major phases of an attacking missile's trajectory (boost, midcourse and terminal), whatever the type of target under threat. For an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the boost phase typically lasts 180-300s. This is followed by ascent (500-600s), mid-course (approximately 1,200s) and terminal (about 30s). Each brings its own demands, and shorter-ranged weapons pose their own challenges.
This re-organization has resulted in the former National Missile Defense (NMD) effort and a variety of theater-based programs coming under a single umbrella of the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS).
In another major move related to BMD, in December 2001 the US gave Russia the required six months' advance notice of its intention to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. This will remove the prohibition on the deployment of such systems at sea or in space, and on the geographical and other limitations associated with ground-based defenses.
Boost Defense Segment
The BMDS is divided into three segments. The Boost Defense Segment (BDS) concentrates on the introduction of boost-phase intercept (BPI) systems that can progressively reduce the 'safe havens' - the region from which missiles can be launched without fear of their immediate destruction - available to a hostile state. This requires quick reaction to a launch, high confidence in the decision-making processes, and the ability to conduct multiple engagements.
BPI has several advantages. The threat missile is most vulnerable during its launch. It has a large infrared (IR) signature, resulting from burning fuel; the weapon maintains a slowly changing attitude, making it easier to track; and the rocket body is relatively fragile and under great aerodynamic stress. Additionally, because the warhead has not separated from the launcher, there is a relatively large lethal-hit area when attempting to destroy the missile. The boost phase also occurs before any decoys or countermeasures can be initiated by an aggressor.
The MDA is allocating resources to develop both kinetic- and directed-energy BPI solutions. The development of higher-power lasers and faster interceptors would reduce the size of safe havens, and space-based systems could potentially eliminate them entirely.
There are four principal objectives for the BDS. The first is to demonstrate and make available the Airborne Laser (ABL), which will involve a fleet of Boeing 747-400Fs that can autonomously detect, track and engage ballistic missiles during their boost phase. In addition to supplying the airborne platform, Boeing is responsible for weapon-system integration and provides the battle-management, command, control, communications, computers and intelligence (BM/C4I) system. TRW contributes the megawatt-class chemical oxygen iodine laser, with Lockheed Martin supplying the beam-control/fire-control system.
The first production delivery is scheduled for Fiscal Year 2008 (FY08), with initial operational capability (IOC) - involving three aircraft - being achieved in FY09 and full operational capability (FOC) with all seven platforms following in FY11. The ABL program has so far focused on short- and medium-range threats. The MDA now sees it assuming an additional strategic defense role. The aircraft's on-board sensors will allow it to conduct long-range, wide-area surveillance of regions from which threat missiles might be launched, then cue mid-course and terminal systems.
The second objective for the BDS is to define and evolve space- and sea-based kinetic-energy BPI concepts in the next two to four years, permitting a development decision in 2003-05. This effort will include concept definition, risk reduction and proof-of-concept demonstrations. Challenges to this approach include the need to detect and confirm a threat within a few seconds of launch. Also, the kill vehicle has to detect and track the target in the presence of a brilliant plume.
The MDA is considering a sea-based BPI system that would employ a high-speed, high-acceleration booster coupled with a boosted kill vehicle. This same booster will be evaluated (with a different kill vehicle) for sea-based midcourse roles. The third BDS objective is to conduct a proof-of-concept Space-Based Interceptor Experiment (SBX).
The fourth objective was to have been to continue risk-reduction efforts to prepare the way for a proof- of-concept Space-Based Laser Integrated Flight Experiment (SBL-IFX) in space during 2012-13. The SBL-IFX was foreseen as a single satellite carrying a high-energy chemical laser, beam director and related beam-control systems. This could have led to an operational system, involving 24 satellites, entering service in about 2020 and achieving FOC about four years later. Congress substantially reduced the funding allocated to the SBL-IFX in its 2002 budget, however, as a result of which work on the program has stopped. Whether this sounds the death knell for the effort is uncertain.
Midcourse Defense Segment
The Midcourse Defense Segment (MDS) consists of several elements. These include Ground-based Midcourse Systems and Sea-Based Midcourse Systems, the successors to the NMD and Navy Theater Wide (NTW) programs respectively. Other aspects involve systems engineering and integration, together with test and evaluation.
The bulk of the MDS resources are allocated to building and sustaining a realistic test architecture that represents the proposed operational capability.
The MDA plans to have a ground-based testbed available by 2004-06. This will expand to include weapons and sensor capabilities from throughout the BMDS when they become available.
The MDS will draw on the technologies that were successfully demonstrated under the NMD program. These include the results of the most recent trial, Integrated Flight Test-7 (IFT-7), conducted in December 2001. IFT-7 was the third successful intercept in five attempts. A prototype Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) carrying an Exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV), launched from Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific, destroyed a modified Minuteman ICBM that had been launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California - more than 7,500km distant - 20min earlier.
The intercept took place approximately 10min after the interceptor was launched, at an altitude of more than 200km and a relative velocity of 7km/s.
After a mid-course phase lasting approximately 210s, the EKV activated its on-board sensor. It then acquired the target array within 3s, following which it spent just over 100s in the discrimination phase to distinguish between the re-entry vehicle and a balloon decoy. The EKV then entered the terminal phase, with impact occurring 5s later, destroying the target by kinetic energy alone. IFT-7 also demonstrated the integrated operation of space- and ground-based sensors and radars, together with the battle-management, command, control and communications element.
The Sea-based Midcourse System is intended to intercept short- and medium-range missiles early in their ascent phase, thereby reducing the susceptibility to countermeasures of the overall BMDS. Sea-based forces have several advantages in such a role. They are forward-deployed, allowing them to arrive on-scene quickly in response to a crisis; they operate in international waters, with no equipment on foreign soil; they can defend a large area, resulting from their proximity to the launch site; and they have the flexibility to act as a sensor, 'shooter' or communications node.
The Sea-Based Midcourse System will build on work carried out under the NTW program, full-rate production of which had been planned for FY07. NTW consisted of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) and upgrades to the Aegis shipboard weapon system. The SM-3 uses the SM-2 Block IV booster and sustainer motor, with the addition of a third-stage rocket motor and a fourth-stage kinetic warhead (KW). The last of these carries a solid-fuel divert and attitude-control system (SDACS) and a seeker operating in the long-wave IR band.
The Aegis LEAP [Lightweight Exo-Atmospheric Projectile] Intercept (ALI) effort, which formed the major part of the NTW program, will continue in support of the follow-on effort. In a captive-carry test of the SM-3 seeker conducted in February 2001, the sensor successfully tracked the target complex for 300s. Flight Mission-2 (FM-2), which took place in late January 2002, was a flyby that included maneuvering with the aid of the SDACS. The SM-3 carrying a KW was launched from the Aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie off Hawaii. It maneuvered and struck the target at a closing velocity approaching 4km/s, although this was not a goal of the test. FM-3, due to take place at the end of April or the beginning of May, will be the first preplanned intercept attempt. FM-4 is planned for August. Funding is in place for testing up to and including FM-7.
The US-Japanese co-operative research program initiated in August 1999, that was developing technologies for a Block II version of NTW, has been extended by a further year to October 2002. Each country has allocated US$35 million for the additional 12 months' work. The program embraces four areas: a lightweight nosecone; enhanced propulsion (the burnout velocity of the baseline SM-3 missile is less than half that required for mid-course engagement of long-range targets); an advanced KW, incorporating nuclear hardening and a DACS that is able to impart greater divert velocity; and a longer-range 'two-color' (mid/long-wave IR) seeker. The last of these could be more effective in penetrating the DACS propellant plume, and in discriminating re-entry vehicles from debris.
The NTW program also included potential upgrades to the Aegis shipboard combat system, allowing it to perform longer-range, exo-atmospheric detection, tracking, discrimination and engagement of ballistic missiles in addition to its traditional anti-air warfare role. Lockheed Martin is developing a prototype of the AN/SPY-1E solid-state S-band radar, which is foreseen as an antenna upgrade to earlier models of the SPY-1. The -1E variant incorporates enhancements over its predecessors in terms of sensitivity, instantaneous bandwidth and clutter attenuation. In parallel, Raytheon is working on an X-band High Power Discriminator radar employing technology from the THAAD land-based system (see below).
The MDS systems engineering and integration effort includes funding for further risk reduction and the development of counter-countermeasures. It will also begin development of a complementary kill vehicle that could be common to both ground- and sea-based interceptors.
In January 2002, the US Army Space and Missile Defense Command (SMDC) awarded Schafer Corp a US$24.5 million contract for development and technology demonstration of the Multiple Miniature Kill Vehicle (MMKV). A single booster carrying large numbers of lightweight, inexpensive hit-to-kill MMKVs would deploy them to engage multiple objects during the mid-course phase of flight. This approach would ease the target-discrimination process by removing objects from the threat cluster, or by altering their signatures or kinematic characteristics, even if it did not destroy the re-entry vehicle.
Terminal Defense Segment
The Terminal Defense Segment (TDS) supports the development and selective upgrades of defensive capabilities that engage ballistic missiles in the terminal phase of their trajectory. The primary projects under the TDS are the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Israeli Arrow Deployability Program (ADP). Related activities include the Israeli Test Bed, Arrow System Improvement Program (ASIP), and studies via the Israeli Systems Architecture and Integration effort that assess the weapon's performance relative to both existing and emerging threats.
THAAD is intended to defend against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at significant distances from their target and at high altitudes. It will protect US and allied armed forces, broadly dispersed assets and population centers.
Lockheed Martin is working under an engineering and manufacturing development contract, awarded in August 2000, worth approximately US$4 billion. The ground-based test program, now under way, will be followed by flight trials that are currently planned for FY04. Additional funding has recently been allocated to accelerate the acquisition of a THAAD radar and to buy more test rounds. IOC is foreseen for FY07.
The Arrow Weapon System (AWS) provides Israel with a defense against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and additionally protects US forces deployed in the region. A successful intercept test in September 2000 led to Israel declaring the system operational the following month.
The ADP supports the acquisition of a third battery, and efforts to provide interoperability with US missile-defense systems. This will be achieved by the adoption of a common communications architecture employing Link 16. The ASIP involves technical co-operation to improve the performance of the AWS, which will be validated by a collaborative test and evaluation program. Under a recently signed strategic teaming agreement between Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) and Boeing, the US company will build approximately half the content of future Arrow rounds. IAI will continue to integrate the complete weapon.
The THAAD and Arrow upper-tier systems are complemented within the TDS by lower-tier programs, notably the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system that is entering service with the US Army. PAC-3 is intended to defend forward-deployed forces against tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) and other threats, including cruise missiles. According to Brigadier-General John Urias, Deputy Commanding General for Acquisition in SMDC, PAC-3 provides a sevenfold increase in the defended battlespace against TBMs compared with the earlier PAC-2.
The system employs a new round, developed by Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, containing a 'hit-to-kill' kinetic-energy warhead. PAC-3 conducted seven successful body-to-body intercepts in eight attempts during testing against ballistic-missile targets, and four out of four when engaging cruise missiles and other air-breathing threats. The combination of an accurate millimeter-wave (Ka-band) seeker and a highly agile airframe provides the performance necessary. The success of this approach during testing, augmented by similar achievements with the NMD and THAAD programs, has largely removed doubts about whether hit-to-kill is a viable solution.
The US Army will deploy the PAC-3 in mixed batteries with the earlier PAC-2 round. Each launcher can carry four PAC-3 'four-packs', that are very similar to the existing Patriot canisters, in place of four PAC-2 rounds (the two types cannot be mixed on the same launcher). However, the weight associated with carrying this maximum load of 16 missiles may make it more practical to settle for two quad-packs (eight missiles). Other changes include the introduction of an Enhanced Launcher Electronics System and a Fire Solution Computer. The latter, installed in the Engagement Control Station, can operate with any model of Patriot missile.
Lockheed Martin delivered the first 16 production-standard PAC-3 rounds in September 2001. The company has so far received contracts for two batches of low-rate initial production (LRIP) missiles, awarded in December 1999 and a year later, totaling 95 rounds. The US Army is expected to buy 1,130 missiles by 2010, with a decision on full-rate production planned for September 2002. Germany and the Netherlands are also poised to order PAC-3 missiles, the former looking at up to 300 and the latter at up to 128 (actual numbers may be considerably lower because of the perceived high cost per round). The projected unit cost at present is US$2.4 million per round, although Lockheed Martin says that it hopes to reduce this to below US$1.5 million as a result of additional purchases to meet the needs of overseas countries (both as part of Patriot, and for the MEADS system - see below).
Developmental testing (DT), which was successfully completed with the DT-10 shot at White Sands Missile Range in October 2001, employed LRIP rounds from DT-6 onwards. DT-10 confirmed that a software fault - which had resulted in a partial failure during DT-9 in July 2001 when one PAC-3 round successfully engaged a QF-4 drone employing jamming, but a second missile missed its tactical ballistic missile target - had been corrected. DT-10 was the first PAC-3 flight test to employ the newest Patriot software update (Post Deployment Build 5+). It involved the simultaneous engagement of a BQM-34 drone (acting as a surrogate cruise missile), flying at very low altitude against a clutter background, by a PAC-3 and of an MQM-107D drone by a PAC-2 round. Initial operational test and evaluation, involving four shots, was due to begin in early 2002 and be completed in July.
In parallel with the introduction of the PAC-3 round, Raytheon is upgrading the present PAC-2 and PAC-2 Guidance Enhanced Missile (GEM) variants to GEM+ standard. This adds facilities that provide improved performance against cruise missiles. The company has also proposed a multifaceted service-life extension program (SLEP) that would extend Patriot's life to 2032, including the introduction of a 'PAC-2 Hit-to-Kill' round as a complement or alternative to PAC-3. This would replace the baseline IR homing head and blast-fragmentation warhead with a kinetic payload and millimeter-wave radar seeker, and add a sideways-firing thruster package for greater terminal maneuverability.
The proposed new seeker is a variant of that developed earlier under the Patriot Anti-Cruise Missile (PACM) project, which successfully engaged air-breathing targets during flight-testing. The US Army elected not to proceed with PACM, and says it is likewise committed to PAC-3, but the low cost of the PAC-2 Hit-to-Kill conversion - claimed by Raytheon to be only one-quarter that of buying a new PAC-3 - may sway its decision.
The SLEP could be expanded to include changes resulting in the Patriot Light configuration proposed by Raytheon. This involves updating and reducing the size of the command, control and communications system, using commercial technologies, so that it can be accommodated in shelters carried by three HMMWV utility vehicles rather than 5t trucks. Raytheon has built a prototype that functioned well during the 'Roving Sands' exercise in June 2001. Efforts are also under way to build a common launcher for both Patriot and THAAD that could be reloaded in 20min.
The DoD canceled the Navy Area missile-defense program in December 2001, nominally because of cost increases - the predicted average procurement unit cost of the SM-2 Block IVA round had risen by 65%. Also, the trials program was slipping, and the successes achieved by hit-to-kill weapons had cast doubts on the wisdom of proceeding with a missile carrying a high-explosive warhead.
Senior leaders, including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have reiterated that the Navy Area mission remains essential despite cancelation of the missile. The MDA has therefore been tasked with proposing a revised program, now known as Navy Terminal or the Sea-Based Terminal Defense System, that will take into account recent technologies - specifically those relating to hit-to-kill - and employ a 'spiral' (evolutionary) development approach. The results are due to be submitted to the Secretary of Defense in May.
MEADS program
The tri-national Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) program being conducted by Germany, Italy and the US took a major step forward in July 2001 with the award by NATO's NAMEADSMA management agency of a US$216 million contract for the Risk Reduction Effort (RRE), which will last 32.5 months. The weapon system is being developed by MEADS International, a 50:50 joint venture between Lockheed Martin and euroMEADS (which itself is made up of Alenia Marconi Systems in Italy, together with EADS and LFK in Germany). The US is funding 55% of the RRE phase, with Germany contributing 28% and Italy 17%. Workshares are distributed among the participating national industries in the same ratio.
MEADS is expected to achieve IOC in 2012. It is intended eventually to replace Patriot in the US Army by 2028, and to provide mobile air defenses for German and Italian forces. The system could also contribute to homeland defense. For example, MEADS International has conducted a study for Italy in which the radars could be deployed down the country's central Appenine mountain chain in peacetime and then removed as needed for expeditionary operations.
The RRE will involve what Joel Strickland, president of MEADS International, characterizes as a "model, test, model" approach (both for the complete system and for individual items within it). It also encompasses the construction of hardware and software, including a testbed for the multifunction fire-control radar (MFCR) to complement that for the surveillance radar which was built during an earlier phase. Other efforts relate to mechanical parts of the launcher, which will be employed for fit checks aboard the C-130 airlifter and for other tests; and selected parts of the battle-management (BM) system.
The RRE is due to culminate in a system demonstration of the radars and BM segment in Rome in early 2004, including the use of digital models that permit 'virtual' missiles to be flown, although MEADS International will submit the results of testing as it proceeds rather than waiting to present a final all-encompassing report. The design and development phase is scheduled to follow.
MEADS is designed to engage the full spectrum of threats - including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and aircraft - yet require far fewer operations and support personnel than current systems.
The networked and distributed architecture adopted for MEADS is fundamentally different from that of its predecessors. The design approach emphasizes high firepower and performance, in order to reduce the number of assets required to defend a given area. The 'plug and fight' philosophy allows individual elements to be inserted as needed. Those required to protect a port, for example, are different from those suitable for defending a mobile force.
In the latter case, MEADS employs a 'step-up and forward' approach, with equipment leapfrogging from the rear to the front of the formation as it progresses. The BM system monitors what assets are on-line at any given time and reorganizes accordingly. This process is assisted by navigation systems that incorporate Global Positioning System receivers aboard major units. These act as nodes in a time-division multiple-access communications network employing software-defined radios rather than conventional radio relays. Such an architecture also assists redundancy by allowing surviving assets to assume the roles of those that have been damaged, destroyed or failed.
MEADS is intended to be transportable by C-130 - with most of its elements able to drive on and off the aircraft without extensive pre-preparation - and by the C.160 Transall. A fire unit will normally consist of six truck-mounted launchers, each with 12 missiles; three reload vehicles, each carrying 12 rounds; two tactical operations centers, each with a support vehicle; one UHF surveillance radar; and two X-band MFCRs, incorporating missile uplinks and downlinks, which additionally perform an electronic support measures function.
The design approach adopted for MEADS emphasizes providing maximum performance from the surveillance radar in order to place lower demands on the MFCR. Both types are pulse-Doppler radars employing active phased-array antennas with adaptive digital beamforming. The antennas can rotate continuously through 360º, or stop to 'stare' at a specific location, whereas the fixed radars employed with Patriot are limited to coverage of a predetermined 90º sector.
Each MEADS fire unit has 72 ready missiles - compared with 18 for Improved Hawk, 32 for PAC-2, and 56 with a mixed PAC-2/PAC-3 battery - yet requires only 50 personnel, including those performing support functions. Strategic deployment of such a fire unit would require five C-17 sorties, or three by C-5s. Tactical delivery to the battlefield would require 20 loads for a C-130, or 38 for a Transall.
PAC-3 has been adopted as the baseline missile, partly to reduce the risk associated with the overall program, although Strickland says MEADS International will continue to assess whether this decision results in any performance shortfalls that may require a preplanned product-improvement program or even eventually warrant a new missile.
Other European efforts focus on developing a TMD-capable variant of the MBDA Aster surface-to-air missile which is the primary weapon of the sea-going PAAMS combat system and the land-based SAMP-T missile system. France is the leading nation for these activities.
NATO defense system
NATO as a whole is studying a system that could defend deployed forces against missile attack by 2010. The alliance agreed a NATO Staff Target for Active Layered Theatre Missile Defense in 1999, and in January 2000 the North Atlantic Council approved funding for two studies to examine the technical feasibility, costs and timescales of such a system. In July 2001, NATO's Consultation, Command and Control Agency awarded contracts worth approximately US$13.5 million each to two consortia for these 18-month efforts. Team Janus, led by Lockheed Martin, includes Alenia Marconi Systems, BAE Systems, EADS, MBDA and TRW. Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) heads the other group.
The feasibility studies are addressing the complete range of theater missile defense elements and activities, including land-based, shipboard and airborne systems. They are planned to lead to one or more NATO Staff Requirements by 2004.
Issues associated with sea-based systems are being addressed by the Maritime Theater Ballistic Missile Defense Forum, originally established by Germany, the Netherlands and the US in April 1999. Participation has since expanded to include Italy, Canada and Australia as full members, with Spain and the UK acting as observers. The forum incorporates working groups studying various aspects of the overall system, such as the Standard Missile, BMC4I, IR search-and-track sensors, modeling and simulation, S-band radars and X-band radars.
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