[Brett66]

I guess they'll be sending the first humans up next year, then we'll see the heavy booster configurations of the Shenzou. I've read about three different scenarios that are possible when the heavy boosters are operational:

1. They build a space station and then go to the moon.

2. They build a space station, RLV and then go to the moon.

3. They go straight to the moon.

It's going to be interesting to watch this unfold the next few years. They show tremendous ambition, I think option 3 favors their ambitions the most.

[RightWhale]

It would probably be easier, less demanding technologically, to go direct to the moon. But in the longer run it would be far more effective to build a base station in earth orbit, another in lunar orbit, and shuttle between them and the surfaces. In that way they can build and maintain a base on the moon. Otherwise they will only visit the moon like NASA did.

It might take a little more fuel, but the advantage is they won't have to carry as much fuel each stage and replace all the hardware each trip. To the moon and back might also take 2 weeks rather than 1 as it was for Apollo, but the pace wouldn't be as hectic and dangerous. The first stage wouldn't have to be a huge Saturn V type of rocket, but several smaller launches, most unmanned.