Col. Stanislav Lunev
Wednesday, May 24, 2000
Russia delivered the first shipment of 24 supersonic cruise missiles to Red China from a new Russian-built missile destroyer in recent weeks, and more will be sent later this year. These missiles, known as Sunburns or SSN-22s, will be deployed on China’s new Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyer, and originally were designed for use against the U.S. warships, especially aircraft carriers.
These anti-ship missiles could be used against Americans, said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., quoted in The Washington Times May 9. "The Chinese communists now have the ability to sink American aircraft carriers and kill thousands of Americans,” Rohrabacher said.
It is difficult to disagree with the view of the congressman. The danger from Russian missile shipments to Red China is already present and real. But 24 Sunburns is a drop in the river of Russian arms sales abroad, first of all to China and other countries, which traditionally are not friendly to America.
As the Russian press reported, the Russian Federation state-owned weapons company Rosvooruzhenie (Russian Armaments) achieved a major jump in export last year with $2.8 billion in sales to 49 nations. This corporation, which handles all of Russia’s arms exports, said that 1999 sales represented an increase of $800 million over the year before.
In recent years, Russia has been the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter after the United States, Great Britain and France. Rosvooruzhenie officials said that improved sales reflected improved marketing coordination with arms manufacturers. The company opened 14 branch offices across the country to improve coordination and plans to add two more offices soon. Recently Rosvooruzhenie set up its own joint venture, dubbed Krondshtadt, to export military software technologies.
This year Rosvooruzhenie, the main state military export company, expects total Russian foreign sales of more than $3 billion. This corporation reports orders worth $9 billion through 2005. About half of these are aircraft and helicopters, but there has been increasing interest abroad in Russia’s naval-defense and air-defense systems.
During the last 10 years Russia’s military output has declined compared with the Soviet era, when about 80 percent of the country’s industrial production was military. This reduction of weapons sales abroad happened because Russia stopped producing arms for former Warsaw Pact members and other Cold War allies and had to enter the competitive international weapons market.
Boosting the present revival, a weak ruble makes Russian arms relatively cheap, and Russia’s main weapons customers - Red China, India, Algeria and Greece - are looking at increasing business. Their main points of interest are combat aircraft such as different modifications of SU (Sukhoi) and MiG fighters, helicopters, up-to-date air defense complexes such as the well-known S-300, and missiles, including supersonic cruise missiles.
According to the Russian press, foreign customers are not only looking for the aviation hardware but also pursuing technological military cooperation. Over the past several years, Rosvooruzhenie has signed such collaboration deals with Bangladesh, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Ukraine.
Another market that appears to be expanding for Russia is Libya. According to Rosvooruzhenie’s reports, negotiations with Libya are under way to repair and modernize old Soviet military hardware operating by the Libyan military. Russia is trying to promote such maintenance and repair work. Specialists believe that the volume of this kind of work in foreign countries totaled more than $425 million during 2000. Major additional clients in this area are China, India and Ethiopia, former Soviet proxy in the Cold War.
One more potential customer is Syria, which wants to replace the old Soviet military equipment that makes up the bulk of its air force fleet. The United States has voiced stiff objections to Russia selling to what it sees as a rogue state, but Russian politicians and military leaders believe that Moscow will dismiss American opposition.
Most of the weapons being sold were developed in the former U.S.S.R. during the 1980s. To further boost foreign sales and modernize the outdated equipment of the Russian army, military authorities have set aside an undisclosed sum for research and development. According to the Russian press, only 30 percent of military hardware in use by the Russian Federation’s army is of the latest technology.
The presidential degree signed by then President Boris Yeltsin last September that simplifies obtaining arms export authorization has stimulated arms sales. New Russian President Vladimir Putin is following his predecessor’s example.
Last month Putin signed a special degree merging two leading Russian arms mediators into one company. As Moscow Times reported, according this degree the Russian president has ordered the merger of Promexport (Industrial Export) and Rossiiskiye Technologii (Russian Technologies).
According to the Russian press, Promexport can sell millions of dollars worth of military technologies annually and help draw much-needed foreign investment into the development of new arms, which Russia cannot find on its own. This corporation has been successfully exporting weaponry, spare parts and ammunition decommissioned by the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defense, but until this merger it could not export new technology.
Promexport has a $900 million order portfolio for 2000. The enterprise sold $200 million worth of arms in 1998 and $150 million in 1999. Promexport is the second-largest arms exporter after Moscow-based Rosvooruzhenie, which sold $2.8 billion in 1999. Promexport chief Sergei Chemezov is the new Russian president’s protege, with then-Prime Minister Putin having lobbied last year then-President Yeltsin for Chemezov’s appointment to the director general post.
Rossiiskiye Tekhnologii has been trying to export weapons technologies since 1997, when Yeltsin signed a decree that at once transformed Promexport from a foreign-trade association into a state enterprise and established Rossiiskiye Tekhnologii. Working on its own, Rossiiskiye Tekhnologii managed to export just $20 million worth of technologies in 1999.
Russian specialists are expecting that reforms of the arms-export system can continue, with Promexport director general Chemezov lobbying to have his company and Rosvooruzhenie united into a single holding to end their rivalry. According to rumors in Moscow, soon the merged pair of Promexport and Rossiiskiye Tekhnologii will be brought under control of Rosvooruzhenie, and director general Alexei Ogarev could be replaced by somebody from Putin’s inner circle.
No one would question the right of a new president to choose his own team of advisers and agency chiefs. But it remains to be seen if this reshuffling is anything more than maintaining the tradition of the Yeltsin years, in which each change in prime ministers was followed by a new director general at Rosvooruzhenie.
Putin so far has no real economic or social programs, but he is active in his bloody war in Chechnya and, like his predecessor, in internal bureaucratic intrigues and international contacts. He depends on the military, military-industrial complex and special services, and there is no doubt Putin will pay close attention to these institutions, which brought him to the power.
We can expect Putin will approve new arms sales to foreign countries, independently from their political orientation. Because sales of weapons abroad will bring him sufficient amount of cash, he could pay back his supporters.
Putin does understand that the military industry is the only sector of his nation’s economy that has the potential to be an engine of new technologies that could pull other parts of the economy out of the doldrums and into the world marketplace. And he doesn’t care that new weapons will go to the nations traditionally unfriendly to the United States, including North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria and other rogue states, which are knocking on Russia’s door looking for sophisticated arms.
The United States, whose politicians previously demonstrated their concern about reports of abuses against civilians by Russian troops in Chechnya, may now have cause for alarm over another byproduct of the war in Chechnya, over the revival of Russia’s weapons industry and its arms sales abroad.
And GW is Clinton lite.