Population rise fuels pressure on public services

Manchester Guardian (England) | March 11, 2002 | staff

[liberallarry]

London's population is set to rise to 8.1m by 2016, putting massive pressure on public services, says a report by the capital's mayor, Ken Livingstone, today.

The 700,000 increase - about half a million more people than official government estimates - is the equivalent to London absorbing a city the size of Leeds.

The forecast, made in Planning for London's Growth, a report commissioned by Mr Livingstone, will fuel the mayor's campaign for extra government investment in the city.

The figures are higher than the 7.6m people predicted in the 1996 office for national statistics figures used by the government.

Without adequate forward planning and resources the increase will inevitably put pressure on housing, the environment, transport infrastructure and other public services, Mr Livingstone argues.

"A rapidly growing city cannot function on the resources of a smaller one, particularly as many of London's public services are already suffering the effects of under-investment," he said.

"Crucial decisions must be made now on major projects to maintain and improve London's infrastructure and ensure the city's long-term economic future."

In the past two years London's population has grown by 190,000 people. By 2016 it is expected that employment will rise sharply with more than 400,000 additional jobs being created in business services.

Strong growth in the financial and business sector will result in these industries becoming even more concentrated in central parts of the city, the report says.

Mr Livingstone's predictions are based on natural population increases and movements of people in and out of the region.

The excess of births over deaths that represents the natural increase accounts for about 40,000 people a year, according to the calculations.

London experiences an average net loss of 50,000 people a year as young people travel to the capital for their first job and older people retire and move out.

Overall growth is sustained from overseas immigration.

The government's population growth figures are based on the number and size of households.

Mr Livingstone said: "London now accounts for 72% of the natural increase in population of England and Wales. It adds to its inhabitants at the rate of a major city every decade and a borough every two years.

"Almost every part of London is expanding in population, with the consequent requirements for infrastructure and public services. This build up is driven by deep economic forces and will continue."