Arafat Races...[Against] Bush

Debka ^ | 3/5/02 | Debka

[monkeyshine]

Arafat Races… Bush
DEBKAfile Special Analysis

5 March: Tuesday, between 02:15 and 09:00 hours Israel time, Palestinian terrorists slew 5 Israelis and injured 63 in attacks in Tel Aviv, Afula and the Tunnel Road leading out of Jerusalem. Each time the level of bloodshed hits a new and intolerable high – as it did last Saturday and Sunday – it gets worse.

By upping the pace of terror attacks and killing more Israelis, Arafat is throwing a gauntlet at the feet of US president George W. Bush - namely, he will prove he can topple Ariel Sharon before the Americans even get started on overturning Saddam Hussein.

DEBKAfile’s military, intelligence and Palestinian sources report Arafat is determined to turn his confrontation against Israel into Saddam Hussein’s front line against the United States. Certain the Americans will fail, he is standing solidly behind the side he expects to win, Iraq – and challenging the losers, the United States and Israel.

This is a repeat of Arafat’s 1991Gulf War performance. Then too, he advised Saddam to tie his strategy to the Palestinian problem, whereupon the Iraqi ruler defined his 1990 invasion of Kuwait as the first round in the war of liberation for Palestine. To help Saddam, therefore, two weeks ago, Arafat unleashed two of his private militias, the 30,000-strong Tanzim and the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades – who are in close communication with Iraqi military intelligence - for the current terror offensive against Israeli targets, scaling the level of violence up every three days.

In the small hours of Tuesday March 5, a Palestinian armed with an M-16 assault rifle, a long knife, hand grenades and a bomb-belt, climbed onto the MaarivBridge in south Tel Aviv and opened fire on the traffic passing below and two of the many restaurants nearby. When hand grenades began flying, a Tel Aviv police officer, Salim Barakat, 33, from the Druse village of Yarka, Galilee, performed an outstanding act of bravery that stopped the rampage of terror: he gave chase and tackled his quarry at close quarters, upon which the Palestinian slashed his throat. Salim Barakat’s last action before he died was to shoot the terrorist dead. Arafat’s spokesmen appearing over the media on Tuesday made no bones about their objectives. The Palestinian Authority has declared war on Israel, they say, and aims by means of terrorist strikes to kill as many Israelis as possible and bring down the Sharon government.

Sharon’s handling of the crisis shows hesitancy. With the Arab League summit due to convene on March 28 in Beirut, he is reluctant to play into Arafat’s hands and confront Palesitnian violence with all the strength at Israel’s disposal, lest even moderate Arab rulers, like those of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar, turn their backs on the forthcoming American campaign against Iraq. His hands are also held tight by his dovish Labor coalition partners, the defense and foreign ministers, Binyamin bin Eliezer and Shimon Peres, who oppose permitting the army to tackle the Palestinian offensive head-on. A Labor walkout, by enfeebling the Sharon government, would also weaken the pro-American Middle East front and devalue Israeli military support for a US military offensive. A former general, the Israeli prime minister is also aware of the cost in bloodshed – military and civilian - of a full-scale war campaign against the Palestinians.

Arafat is aware of these constraints, but by piling on the terror day by day, he may push Israel too far. If Sharon is driven into a corner, he will have to take the gloves off or lose his seat.

[monkeyshine]

There you have it, Sharon's (and Arafat's) strategy in a nutshell. Maybe Sharon is waiting for the assault on Iraq or the Arab league summit.

I don't think Arafat's ploy will work. I don't think Sharon can lose his seat just by having Labor walk out. Sharon is trying to appease the left though, as evidenced by his eliminating his demand for 7 days of quiet before negotiations. It's a concession to his left, and to Europe and the State Dept of the USA. They'll have to get a concession out of Arafat next. And besides, it doesn't mean that the violence will stop, it just means they'll negotiate under fire.

[McGavin999]

Arafat is playing with fire and he's going to get burned.

[DallasMike]

If not in this life, then perhaps in the next....

[monkeyshine]

More likely... after this life and for all eternity.

[section9]

Arafat is slowly but surely putting himself in a position where he will become, de facto as well as de jure, an enemy of the United States. Should he become openly hostile to us, we may just smite him down to set an example for the other Arabs.

We are not the Israelis. The Israelis are fine in the air, but they are simply not in our league in ground combat. Arafat can only compare us to the Israelis that he knows.

He thinks he will win. He underestimates the force of will possessed by George W. Bush.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[recalcitrant]

Why put off til tomorrow, what would be better done today?

Israel delays their final incursion on the sixty percenters, to their own peril, as does the USA in its final incursion into Iraq.

The time to strike with finality, IS NOW. Unilaterally. In tandem. With or without allies.

We need to be careful we don't let them kill or kidnap our "peace" envoy. To the radical muslims, such an act, would be one of supreme valor and courage. Never forget, Islam, is Peace^TM

Our muslim terrorist buddies are counting on us believing it.

[monkeyshine]

Arafat can't win through victory in this way. It's impossible. He can only win what Israel concedes to him.

And while the IDF may be no match for the USA, the PA is no match for the IDF. If Israel wanted to, they could crush the PA like a bug in short order. If Debka is right, 600 fighters surrendered today in one camp, after dozens were killed all around. Even they know they can't win -- and if the IDF can keep getting these kill/surrender numbers, it won't be long until the PA is defeated. Arafat cannot allow his forces to become so depleted that he risks his own seat in power.

[monkeyshine]

You are recalcitrant! Lol

Actually, it's better to have allies than not. The USA made it perfectly clear to NATO that we would take on Afghanistan alone. The Brits stepped up immediately and offered assistance. We are probably doing the same thing with Iraq -- saying we will go it alone, and giving them some time to commit to fighting with us.

When we go into Iraq, and it can't be too long now (a few weeks or months, probably after the Arab summit), Israel will make the big push.

Zinni, the Saudi plan, and Sharon's retraction of the "7 days of quiet" demand are all dilatory tactics, IMHO. But you never know what will happen in the meantime.

[Torie]

Maybe, but I don't think Debka has a clue. I think it over emphasizes the importance of this conference. I am not sure that Sharon knows what to do.

[monkeyshine]

Not just the conference... the impending attack on Iraq.

[monkeyshine]

While the Palestinian cause for independence has a modicum of legitimacy, their methods do not. Arafat and Saddam truly are an axis of evil, bred and trained in their methods by the late Mufti of Jerusalem Muhammed Al-Husseini, a nazi scumbag who orchestrated many mass murders against Jews, and recruited Palestinians to help Hitler, and encouraged Hitler to expand the holocaust into Palestine.

This cannot be minimized (which is why I repeat it often). For some reason Bush Sr. thought Arafat could be rehabilitated after we crushed Saddam in 1991. Maybe he thought Arafat would have learned his lesson vicariously through the humiliation of Saddam. Apparantly not. Arafat and Saddam are Nazi birds of a feather. If Saddam goes down, Arafat must go with him.

[McGavin999]

I think you are right Chris. Arafat showed his true colors during the Gulf war. Clinton treated him like a statesman and he must have been laughing his head off at the stupidity of Clinton. But this is a whole new ballgame and I don't think that Arafat has figured it out yet. He thinks his buddy Saddam will come to his rescue.

Amazing how he's played the Iranian Mullahs for fools and gotten away with it.

[Fish out of Water]

index bump

[Torie]

The Iraq nexus presupposes that these states will cooperate with the US otherwise, and that they are needed, and that Sharon really wants to lash out wildly, and that if he does, it will change the policy of Saudi and Jordan. The US will not support Sharon in just trying to get the Palestinian body count up to "intimidate" them, and I suspect that is the real reason he is not doing so, even if he were so inclined. When is the wall going to start going up again? That is the ONLY way out.

[sheik yerbouty]

Absolutely. the old bugger may yet have a stroke and go to his "virgins"

[Torie]

Arafat would go down whenever the West and Israel want him to go down. They clearly don't at present.

[monkeyshine]

How is a wall the way out? Is that peace?

The thing with the status quo is, Israel is free to go into the camps, to bomb the intallations, to target terrorists, etc. Once Israel builds a wall, or pulls out, they can't.

Yes, obviously they are keeping him around. For now. It suits their short term purposes. Does it suit the long term peace? Maybe after Saddam goes down, there will be the will to oust Arafat and a lack of resistence among the Arab states. If all sides truly want peace, then peacemakers need to lead, not warmakers.

[Torie]

The wall reduces the body count - on both sides. Bashing the Palestinians in raids seems to accomplish nothing of military value. It is merely a cathartic exercise. There are more constructive forms of therapy.

[monkeyshine]

Bashing the Palestinians in raids seems to accomplish nothing of military value.

I disagree. In the past, maybe this was so -- in a tit for tat way it only made each side angry... like poking a tiger.

But now it's getting serious. Israel is starting to make serious moves. If the reports of 60 dead in one day, and 100's surrendering, are true that means the IDF is accomplishing a weakening of the Palestinian will to fight.

As I said, Arafat cannot weaken himself through death and surrenders to the point that he loses his ability to maintain power. Surrenders and massive death has a morale weakening effect, and PA leaders will begin to question the wisdom of proceeding in this vein. That is the purpose, and it has tremendous military value.