Arafat Races...[Against] Bush

Debka ^ | 3/5/02 | Debka

[monkeyshine]

There you have it, Sharon's (and Arafat's) strategy in a nutshell. Maybe Sharon is waiting for the assault on Iraq or the Arab league summit.

I don't think Arafat's ploy will work. I don't think Sharon can lose his seat just by having Labor walk out. Sharon is trying to appease the left though, as evidenced by his eliminating his demand for 7 days of quiet before negotiations. It's a concession to his left, and to Europe and the State Dept of the USA. They'll have to get a concession out of Arafat next. And besides, it doesn't mean that the violence will stop, it just means they'll negotiate under fire.

[McGavin999]

Arafat is playing with fire and he's going to get burned.

[DallasMike]

If not in this life, then perhaps in the next....

[monkeyshine]

More likely... after this life and for all eternity.

[section9]

Arafat is slowly but surely putting himself in a position where he will become, de facto as well as de jure, an enemy of the United States. Should he become openly hostile to us, we may just smite him down to set an example for the other Arabs.

We are not the Israelis. The Israelis are fine in the air, but they are simply not in our league in ground combat. Arafat can only compare us to the Israelis that he knows.

He thinks he will win. He underestimates the force of will possessed by George W. Bush.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[recalcitrant]

Why put off til tomorrow, what would be better done today?

Israel delays their final incursion on the sixty percenters, to their own peril, as does the USA in its final incursion into Iraq.

The time to strike with finality, IS NOW. Unilaterally. In tandem. With or without allies.

We need to be careful we don't let them kill or kidnap our "peace" envoy. To the radical muslims, such an act, would be one of supreme valor and courage. Never forget, Islam, is Peace^TM

Our muslim terrorist buddies are counting on us believing it.

[monkeyshine]

Arafat can't win through victory in this way. It's impossible. He can only win what Israel concedes to him.

And while the IDF may be no match for the USA, the PA is no match for the IDF. If Israel wanted to, they could crush the PA like a bug in short order. If Debka is right, 600 fighters surrendered today in one camp, after dozens were killed all around. Even they know they can't win -- and if the IDF can keep getting these kill/surrender numbers, it won't be long until the PA is defeated. Arafat cannot allow his forces to become so depleted that he risks his own seat in power.

[monkeyshine]

You are recalcitrant! Lol

Actually, it's better to have allies than not. The USA made it perfectly clear to NATO that we would take on Afghanistan alone. The Brits stepped up immediately and offered assistance. We are probably doing the same thing with Iraq -- saying we will go it alone, and giving them some time to commit to fighting with us.

When we go into Iraq, and it can't be too long now (a few weeks or months, probably after the Arab summit), Israel will make the big push.

Zinni, the Saudi plan, and Sharon's retraction of the "7 days of quiet" demand are all dilatory tactics, IMHO. But you never know what will happen in the meantime.

[Torie]

Maybe, but I don't think Debka has a clue. I think it over emphasizes the importance of this conference. I am not sure that Sharon knows what to do.

[monkeyshine]

Not just the conference... the impending attack on Iraq.

[monkeyshine]

While the Palestinian cause for independence has a modicum of legitimacy, their methods do not. Arafat and Saddam truly are an axis of evil, bred and trained in their methods by the late Mufti of Jerusalem Muhammed Al-Husseini, a nazi scumbag who orchestrated many mass murders against Jews, and recruited Palestinians to help Hitler, and encouraged Hitler to expand the holocaust into Palestine.

This cannot be minimized (which is why I repeat it often). For some reason Bush Sr. thought Arafat could be rehabilitated after we crushed Saddam in 1991. Maybe he thought Arafat would have learned his lesson vicariously through the humiliation of Saddam. Apparantly not. Arafat and Saddam are Nazi birds of a feather. If Saddam goes down, Arafat must go with him.

[McGavin999]

I think you are right Chris. Arafat showed his true colors during the Gulf war. Clinton treated him like a statesman and he must have been laughing his head off at the stupidity of Clinton. But this is a whole new ballgame and I don't think that Arafat has figured it out yet. He thinks his buddy Saddam will come to his rescue.

Amazing how he's played the Iranian Mullahs for fools and gotten away with it.

[Fish out of Water]

index bump

[Torie]

The Iraq nexus presupposes that these states will cooperate with the US otherwise, and that they are needed, and that Sharon really wants to lash out wildly, and that if he does, it will change the policy of Saudi and Jordan. The US will not support Sharon in just trying to get the Palestinian body count up to "intimidate" them, and I suspect that is the real reason he is not doing so, even if he were so inclined. When is the wall going to start going up again? That is the ONLY way out.

[sheik yerbouty]

Absolutely. the old bugger may yet have a stroke and go to his "virgins"

[Torie]

Arafat would go down whenever the West and Israel want him to go down. They clearly don't at present.

[monkeyshine]

How is a wall the way out? Is that peace?

The thing with the status quo is, Israel is free to go into the camps, to bomb the intallations, to target terrorists, etc. Once Israel builds a wall, or pulls out, they can't.

Yes, obviously they are keeping him around. For now. It suits their short term purposes. Does it suit the long term peace? Maybe after Saddam goes down, there will be the will to oust Arafat and a lack of resistence among the Arab states. If all sides truly want peace, then peacemakers need to lead, not warmakers.

[Torie]

The wall reduces the body count - on both sides. Bashing the Palestinians in raids seems to accomplish nothing of military value. It is merely a cathartic exercise. There are more constructive forms of therapy.

[monkeyshine]

Bashing the Palestinians in raids seems to accomplish nothing of military value.

I disagree. In the past, maybe this was so -- in a tit for tat way it only made each side angry... like poking a tiger.

But now it's getting serious. Israel is starting to make serious moves. If the reports of 60 dead in one day, and 100's surrendering, are true that means the IDF is accomplishing a weakening of the Palestinian will to fight.

As I said, Arafat cannot weaken himself through death and surrenders to the point that he loses his ability to maintain power. Surrenders and massive death has a morale weakening effect, and PA leaders will begin to question the wisdom of proceeding in this vein. That is the purpose, and it has tremendous military value.