Posted on 03/08/2002 8:58:11 AM PST by dittomom
Napolitano's perch in governor's race a wobbly spot
March 08, 2002
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Democratic Attorney General Janet Napolitano is the frontrunner in the governor's race. But from now until the election, she'll be a woman walking a tightrope.
At this stage of a campaign, the relative position of the candidates is best discerned not by reading polls, but by watching their behavior.
The photo op for Betsey Bayless's announcement was her reading a book to schoolchildren. The book: The Tortoise and the Hare.
The allusion to the current secretary of state's uphill battle with former Congressman Matt Salmon for the Republican nomination was clear, particularly since, in this particular version of the story, the tortoise was female and the hare was male.
Salmon, for his part, is ignoring his primary opponents, except for nervous glances over his shoulder at Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Instead, Salmon is taking pot shots at Napolitano for a variety of sins, from not caring enough about Christmas to allegedly mismanaging the tax refund case estimated to cost the state at least $300 million.
Napolitano, for her part, is ignoring both her primary and potential general election opponents.
In fact, she is pretty much ignoring the governor's race entirely, except for building a campaign infrastructure.
Thus far, Napolitano has been pretty successful in running not against other candidates, but against Arthur Andersen, Qwest and security gropers at the airport.
There are reasons for Napolitano's frontrunner status. She's intelligent and capable, and has competently handled some big issues, such as the alt-fuels fix and the Arthur Andersen settlement.
Napolitano might be vulnerable on the tax refund case, but, in the final analysis, she was the lawyer, not the client.
Nevertheless, Napolitano is largely untested as a campaigner. In her attorney general race, she only had a short general election campaign against a wounded and broke Republican opponent.
And there is at least some indication that Napolitano might be prone to incautious campaign commentary or quips.
For example, in taking credit for the Federal Aviation Administration requiring same-sex airport security searches, Napolitano told the Tribune newspapers that it wouldn't have happened without her. "I mean," she was reported as saying in reference to FAA officials, "it's a bunch of guys."
Now, if a man had said something comparable about women, the politically correct police would peck him to death. But men famously don't get it, so Napolitano will likely skate on this one. But perhaps not on the next.
More importantly, institutional factors favor the Republicans in the long-haul. Republicans have a 5 percent registration advantage statewide, a margin that tends to grow in actual turnout during off-presidential elections. Moreover, party identification tends to be more important in low-budget campaigns, as this one is shaping up to be.
Which means Napolitano has to minimize activities and positions that accentuate traditional party differences. And there are no more traditional party differences than on taxation and government spending, which the state budget crisis will put front and center in the governor's race.
This will be uncomfortable for all the candidates, since there is no good news to share. At least in the short-term, programs will have to be cut or taxes raised. All the candidates will duck these unpleasant choices to some extent.
But they pose the greatest danger to Napolitano. Her traditional base wants government spending greatly increased, not cut. Yet Napolitano needs to avoid confirming taxpayers' suspicions that Democrats are itching to get into their wallets.
Perhaps that's why, in a speech Wednesday to the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, Napolitano was pathetically vacuous on the issue.
She bravely favored a tax structure to serve the 21st century economy, and promised to bring together the best minds in the state to craft one for her.
Napolitano was only slightly more forthcoming in response to press questions afterward, allowing that she did favor revenue bonding for school construction and disliked the education rollover.
But, other than that, her basic response was: Get back to me after the election.
In the meantime, she has a tightrope to walk.
Reach Robb at robert.robb@arizonarepublic.com or (602) 444-8472. His column appears Sundays, Wednesdays and Fridays.
ARIZONA FREEPERS - Is it just me, or isn't Janet Napolitano (or Napoli-Reno, as Charles Goyette calls her) vacuous on just about ALL issues?
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