Control of the house is based on who got to Gerrymander last. If the nation is even 53 /47 Democrat this year the Republicans hold the house. Back in the 1980s the nation could vote 55 /45 for Republicans and the Democrats still held on to the house. It is what Gerrymandering is all about What happened in the 1990 redistrictiong, was enhanced in the 2000 redistricting. It is bad for Democrats. They have been grouped into heavily Democratic districts. There are a large number of Democrats districts that are 70 / 30 Democrat. There is a larger number of districts that are 55 /45 Republican. And there are less that 30 that are very close. The Republicans only have to win a portion of the close ones. The Democrats have to win nearly all the close ones and some of the 55/45 Republican districts. They are not going to be able to do that.
Most voters in the middle don't have a clue about issues. The have impressions. Controlling impressions is how elections are won. The issues Morris talks about only motivate the activists on the left and the right. They vote the same in every election. They don't decide anything. The complex issues don't even figure in the middles decision about for whom they will cast a vote. The middle which decides the Senate, votes based on who has the image of trying to fix the problems. That is, when there are problems people vote for a united goverment to fix the problems. This is indeed, a year with problems. In every case where a popular president failed to carry the Senate you will find he did not have a clear plan about fixing problems or there were no pressing problems.
When there are no problems the public votes to divide government. When things are rosy they want divided government so nothing gets done. If the politicians can NOT do anything they can't screw the good timess up. When things are not so rosy, or the memory of not so rosy is still vivid, people want united government to fix the problems. If there are problems and the president is trying to fix them the public will elect the people he wants.
Those old enough to remember the co-operation the Democrats under Tip O'Neil gave Reagan understand why O'Neil did that. Had he obstructed Reagan in 1981, the Republicans would have won the house in 1982. It is not party based. It is an image of being united to fix problems that would keep the Senate for the Democrats. Daschle is far to stupid to understand that simple fact. His actions are very counter productive.
The memeory of the recent recession in 1992 resuled in a United governnemt for Clinton's first 2 years. A mess in Korea in 1952 Resulted in a United governement for Eisenhower. Peace and prosperity in 1986 resulted in a divided government.
Dachle has it backwards. He fails to understand what motivates voters. That is why he tries stupid things and then has to back track. He does not understand the rules.
Dick Morris knows exactly what is taking place. But,