Posted on 03/05/2002 9:51:27 PM PST by Taylor
Poll turns up surprising views on Bush and more There's good political news for George W. Bush, some relatively surprising good news for Al Gore, but a real shock in store for many Beltway big shots -- from Hillary Rodham Clinton to Tom Daschle. The ''Super Poll'' results are in.
Yes, it's still two years away from the early Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, when the Democrats will try to select someone to take on Bush. But you can bet that these next few months will be critical in determining who makes the commitment to run and the issues they will embrace.
Past results suggest that an averaging of the caucus results in Iowa and the primary vote in New Hampshire provides the best overall indicator of who will ultimately win a Democratic nomination, Bill Clinton's 1992 selection being the only recent exception.
Given that information, the ''Super Poll'' of both Iowa and New Hampshire voters was conducted Feb. 19-26 for InsiderAdvantage.com, the political/governmental news leads Web site, by The Marketing Workshop, a marketing firm that has conducted hundreds of political surveys for candidates and national newspapers.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percent, reveals two amazing results:
First, Gore, despite having gained pounds, grown a beard and wandered into the ''political desert,'' has a rock-solid level of support among hard-core Democrats in the first two states that will decide the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination.
Second, and perhaps an even bigger story, is the emergence of a huge ''Bush Democrat'' contingent that, at least so far, dwarfs that enjoyed by the man for whom such a term was first invented -- Ronald Reagan.
In a head-to-head ballot test among most likely Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic voters, the ''Super Poll'' showed Gore with almost 35 percent of the vote. Trailing far behind, in order, were: Dick Gephardt, 11 percent; John Kerry, 11 percent; Hillary Clinton, 10 percent; Joe Lieberman, 9 percent; Daschle, 8 percent; and John Edwards, 2 percent.
For Gore, it is clear that a huge number of Democrats want to see him get his ''rematch'' in the race that they presumably believe he should have won.
The better-known Democrats, such as Gephardt, Daschle and Lieberman, must consider the possibility that a presidential bid against Gore would be successful only if a great amount of blood were to be spilled through a divisive, negative campaign.
And Hillary Clinton, who arguably enjoys the highest name identification of all of the Democrats placed on the survey, shocked the experts. Usually high name ID is a big plus in any poll. And being the only female in a male-dominated poll almost always guarantees strong results. No such case for Clinton, who, despite both advantages, barely scratches.
The Democratic nomination seems to be Gore's if he starts his efforts before a newcomer, such as Edwards of North Carolina, pulls a Jimmy Carter and creates early grass-roots support, then an increase in name identification.
And whoever takes Gore on should know that neither terrorism, nor education, nor health care is a major concern among these Democrats. Once again, ''It's the economy, stupid.'' But with a difference this time: while in the ''Super Poll'' the overall concern about the economy outpolled other issues 3-to-1, the most likely related concerns of Enron, unemployment and Social Security were hardly mentioned by the respondents.
But even if Gore should run for and win his party's nomination, the ''Super Poll'' suggests an unprecedented tidal wave of hard-core Democratic support for President Bush. When asked ''How likely are you to not vote for a Democrat in 2004 and re-elect George W. Bush as president?'' at least 15 percent of the respondents said ''very likely,'' with another 21 percent saying they were ''somewhat likely.'' These are truly amazing numbers given the fact that those responding are proven Democrats. What makes these numbers even more amazing is the fact that so few of the Democrats who responded considered safety and the current war on terrorism to be a significant issue.
In other words, Bush has gone beyond being a ''wartime wonder.'' The poll even indicates that there exists little if any gender gap between those who would cross party lines to support him. His re-election seems to hinge on his ability to keep the economy at least as strong as it is in the winter of 2002. If he can do so without making any major blunders, the legions of ''Bush Democrats'' may make the ''Reagan Democrats'' of the 1984 election appear tame in number.
There is one bit of bad news for the GOP from the poll. It appears that Bush's popularity has not yet transferred to other Republicans. Democrats were leading both Senate contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
I sure hope you are right. I sense it too but I certainly don't want to count my chickens before they've hatched. If all these people really like Bush they should vote in Republicans in November!
I to know just what that huge number is; and the wording of the question asking about a "rematch".
I also want to know how many in this "hugh number" are: --- still living---in prison...and actual American citizens.
Hope you are right...my money is on Sununu as well.
Well, as you can imagine, both California senators had their stupid statements. However, I struck up several conversations with dems who had written statements to both senators, telling them they should be ashamed to allow Clinton to stay in office. We exchanged several messages and I was shocked to have them tell me that California deserved better senators and they were very embarassed to see how these democrats were acting - and these people were democrats.
There is a hard-core base democrat who is not anything like the ultra left-wing group which hangs with the Clintons. And ... these people will vote for Bush - because they are the ones who also voted for Reagan. Although they may disagree with how to run the government - they believe in all the basic things we believe in - honesty; integrity; morality, etc.
This group of democrats is being ignored by the Daschle group; but I believe this action will come back to haunt them. And ... this action will cause these dems to take to the polls and get rid of the whole mess of them.
Sometimes, we do. Sometimes, despite a lifetime of brainwashing from all sides (school, family, friends), our ability to think independently asserts itself. When the Rats nominated slimeball Klintoon in 1992, I realized that I could never, in good conscience, vote rat again. I have seen the light!
This is because the majority of Americans either somewhat dislike her, or totally DESPISE her.
I very recently posted a long, seven-point essay explaining why Hillary cannot win the presidency in 2004 (or ever), but FR's search engine is so bad I can't find it now.
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