Hard to Handicap in California

The New York Times ^ | 03/02/2002 | The editors

[Pokey78]

A very Californian thing has happened in the election campaign for governor of California. Former Mayor Richard Riordan of Los Angeles, the early favorite to win the Republican nomination, looks as if he might be upset in the primary election on Tuesday by an inexperienced conservative who is believed to have little chance of winning in November. Some describe the election as a test of whether Republican moderates can succeed in California politics, as well as a test of whether President Bush made the right choice in deciding to promote Mr. Riordan's candidacy. Actually it is a test of whether predictions are possible in California politics.

Mr. Riordan must have looked like a sure winner to the White House, which went out of its way last year to recruit him. He surely thought of himself as a winner. Until recently, he spent most of his time attacking the incumbent, Gray Davis, who is unpopular and is seen as having bungled energy and budget crises. Mr. Davis has also failed to erase the image of terrorism show-off that he acquired when he warned of attacks on the state's bridges, even as federal officials called his fears "uncorroborated."

Among professionals, Mr. Davis is considered one of the country's most prodigious fund-raisers. He hasn't even given his Enron money back. He has already spent nearly $8 million for ads attacking Mr. Riordan, clearly hoping to influence Republican primary voters. The governor thinks he has a better chance of defeating Mr. Riordan's main opponent, Bill Simon Jr., a wealthy conservative son of the former Treasury secretary.

One ad quotes former Gov. George Deukmejian, a Republican, attacking Mr. Riordan for alleged lack of character. Mr. Deukmejian still has not forgiven Mr. Riordan for giving money to his Democratic opponent years ago. Even for California, the situation is bizarre: a Democratic governor paying for ads featuring attacks by a former Republican governor on a Republican candidate for governor on the ground that he gave money to Democrats.

With Mr. Riordan engaged in a last-ditch fight, handicapping the race is risky. But already some people are saying that if he loses, his biggest mistake will not turn out to be that he portrayed himself as a moderate. Rather, it is that he snubbed his conservative base, viewed the nomination as an entitlement and displayed only a casual knowledge of the state. He also did not reckon on Mr. Simon being a reasonably articulate, vigorous and attractive candidate.

Mr. Davis, however, could turn out to have made an even bigger mistake. No sitting governor has ever tried so hard to influence a primary election in the opposing party since the 1960's. Back then, Gov. Edmund G. (Pat) Brown desperately wanted the G.O.P. to nominate the most conservative candidate, so he attacked the moderate candidate relentlessly even before the primary. Sure enough, the conservative ended up winning that race. His name was Ronald Reagan. He did rather well the following November. And a few Novembers after that.

[Cicero]

as if he might be upset in the primary election on Tuesday by an inexperienced conservative who is believed to have little chance of winning in November.

Freepers should keep in mind that when the NY Times gives advice to Republicans, it is never with friendly intentions.

This story virtually duplicates the one that ran yesterday in the Washington ComPost. These liberal opinion leaders are both VERY anxious to tell everyone that Simon doesn't have a chance of winning. Frankly, as someone who thinks that Riordan would be a disaster, I find that encouraging. Why would they be saying this unless they really thought that Simon was a threat?

[McGavin999]

I think California is ready for a conservative governor. They are in terrible shape finacially and if someone doesn't step up to the plate now they'll be paying 25% sales tax, their property taxes will be more then their house payments, and as to income tax..........well you can imagine what that'll be like.

I still say that California will be the next target for a terrorist attack.

[LenS]

My god, an NYT editorial mentioned Reagan without foaming at the mouth. The apocalypse is nigh!

[Pelham]

Riordan would indeed be a disaster. Makes you wonder what is wrong with Dubya's "advisors"- Rove, I suppose- everybody out here knows Riordan has been a big fundraiser for lefties, including Clinton. Unfortunately Simon sounds plenty evasive and hardly an enthusiastic conservative. Better than Riordan, but that's not saying much. Once again the pickings are slim.

[Thud]

Easterners have never understood California politics. I wouldn't give any weight to what the NY Times says on the subject.

Riordan's mistakes in his primary campaign were so bone-headed that I doubt he could take Gov. Davis in the general election. My focus here is on campaigning expertise, not ideology. Riordan's campaign was poorly organized and run, and had minimal strategic direction.

Simon's campaign was excellent. His general election campaign will have enough money and he has a very loyal base.

Gov. Davis is a better campaigner but the non-Hispanic voters would like to ditch him given any reasonable alternative. Simon's general election strategy should present that image - a reasonable alternative to Davis.

Simon's problems in the general election are structural - demographic and ideology. First, he starts out a million votes in the hole just because he is a Republican without favorable name recognition among Hispanics (which was Riordan's _only_ strong point as it turns out, and that means nada in the GOP primary). Simon has to get at least 30% of the Hispanic vote in the general election to have any chance at all.

The right-wingers here can claim all they want that Hispanics shouldn't be that way, but they are thanks to Pete Wilson, and wishing won't make the Hispanic million vote margin Davis has go away. Any campaign by Simon which doesn't focus on Hispanics will lose, assuming he avoids the early fools' mate by Davis I posted on elsewhere.

Ideology only makes things worse. California is a liberal state. The non-Hispanics might swallow a reasonable conservative for the sake of getting rid of Davis, but Simon just doesn't have a track record in office of getting along with liberals (which President Bush did while he was governor of Texas), because Simon doesn't have _any_ track record in elective office. I wish he had at least one term as a state legislator.

So I have no confidence that Simon can win. Davis has and will make serious mistakes as Governor, but he hasn't and won't as a candidate for Governor.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Simon will win in November, and handily. This is a re-run of 1966, only the Democrats have been even more disastrously inept than back then. Who'da thought it would be possible, but it is. Simon's a bright, likeable, accomplished, principled, photogenic guy who will steamroller the isolated, paranoid, drab, visionless, horrendously incompetent, creepily crypto-fascist Gray Davis. Simon's message of limited government, individual liberty and bedrock conservative principles will resonate well with Californians.

Expect the past two decades' diminishing trickle of GOP voter turnout to turn into a happy flood. A candidate like Bill Simon comes along once in a generation.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

You're wrong. We have a long, hot summer between the primary and the general election. Every flicker of the lights will drive voters away from Davis. Meanwhile, Simon has the wherewithal (and the deep pockets) to get his message out effectively. He'll have Giuliani and GWB to help, too. But most of all he has Gray Davis... a laughingstock.

Simon can't win over Davis for the same reason Reagan couldn't win over Carter.

[Thud]

So you discount the Hispanic vote.

Elections are won by counting every vote.

[Gophack]

You're right, we should never listen to the predictions of the liberal press. At least they somewhat acknowledge that with this line:

Actually it is a test of whether predictions are possible in California politics.

Gray Davis never intended to knock out Riordan ... he didn't think that was possible. He wanted to weaken him in the primary and trounce him in the general before Spring was even over. Now that Simon is ahead, he said that was his stratgy all along. If Riordan won the primary, the election would have been about RIORDAN and all his flip-flops, gaffes and mistakes (DWP, supporting criminals, etc) instead of about Davis' failed energy, education and budget policies.

Now, with Simon, who has far fewer negatives than Riordan, the election WILL be about Davis, and if he tries to make it about Simon, the strategy will fail.

Regardless of what the RINOs and political pundits and liberal media have repeatedly told us over the past eight months, Richard Riordan is the WORST choice for Republicans even putting his liberal ideology aside. Simon is our BEST choice to take out Gray Davis.

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

Simon's problems in the general election are structural - demographic and ideology. First, he starts out a million votes in the hole just because he is a Republican without favorable name recognition among Hispanics (which was Riordan's _only_ strong point as it turns out, and that means nada in the GOP primary). Simon has to get at least 30% of the Hispanic vote in the general election to have any chance at all.

Actually, Riordan strengths among Hispanics was another myth propagated by the liberal media and Riordan's Democrat campaign team. According to the field poll, in match-ups against Gray Davis, Riordan was ONLY getting 35% of the Hispanics to Davis' 49%. And Simon? He was receiving 30% of the Hispanic vote against 49% for Davis.

I think this means that half the Hispanic voters are die-hard Democrats who will never vote for a Republican right now. One third (probably the Hispanics up here in conservative northern California) are Republicans or conservative Democrats but their voting propensity is lower ... we need someone like Simon to motivate them. The other 17-20% are up for grabs. It will benefit the Simon campaign to find out where they live and target the region with a message that resonates ... I would place my money that these toss-up Hispanics are in the Central Valley.

IMHO

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

Unfortunately Simon sounds plenty evasive and hardly an enthusiastic conservative.

I don't think so. I think Simon sounds like a movement conservative. Have you ever heard him answer a question about guns? He's totally, 100% committed to protecting the 2nd Amendment. He was endorsed by Gun Owners of California because he is hardcore on guns. And, he has a commercial up and running that mentions protecting the 2nd Amendment. Since when does a statewide candidate in California do THAT?

Bill Simon might sound less enthusiastic because he is an outsider. He's not a career politician who is used to speaking in front of political crowds every day. HOWEVER, I heard him on the radio in early January and again this last week and the difference is startling: he has really come a long way in his speaking style, and I was very impressed. He didn't say "um" or "uh" once (which I personally hate) and he had a firm grasp of both the budget crisis Davis' free-spending created and the energy fiasco, as well as responding to the gun question.

Bill Simon IS a movement conservative. Just because he doesn't stand on the street corner beating his chest doesn't mean he's not one of us.

Go Simon!

[Dog Gone]

looks as if he might be upset in the primary election on Tuesday by an inexperienced conservative who is believed to have little chance of winning in November

You agree with the New York Times. However, both of you ignore the Field Poll released this week which has Simon beating Davis in a hypothetical matchup.

So the New York Times is guilty of either deliberately lying or lousy reporting. I'm not sure why you ignore it.

[Thud]

Everybody who can count thinks Simon has no chance against Davis. The only reason the polls don't show that yet is that Simon is a political unknown - you'd look good against Davis because no one knows about your secret letch for Roseanne yet.

But I could tube Simon in three weeks given an $8 million budget, and Gary South is a lot better at that than I am. Boxer did to Matt Fong that fast.

And if Simon doesn't show some foresight here, that could happen by the end of April.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Well that comes perilously close to a flame. I don't discount anyone. And I have found that Hispanics are not necessarily wedded to the DemocRats, nor are they a monolithic bloc like some other ethnicities. (Can't say "minorities" since that's one thing they aren't nowadays.)

Statistically, the performance of GOP candidates tracks perfectly with GOP turnout. The GOP has been outnumbered in California for decades-- that's nothing new. But give us a reason to go to the polls and we win. On the other hand, give us warmed-over Socialist Lite candidates or bitter, calculating career politicians with a sense of electoral entitlement, and we won't.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

But I could tube Simon in three weeks given an $8 million budget, and Gary South is a lot better at that than I am. Boxer did to Matt Fong that fast.

Well, you're right about that. But there's a key difference: to the dismay of many on this board, Fong didn't fight back.

Meanwhile the political world presents few bigger sitting-duck targets than Gray Davis. Meanwhile, Boxer is safely ensconced in her D.C. offices, and most folks only hear about her in her commercials every six years, so only Freepers are intimately aware of her negatives. By comparison, Gray Davis is a laughingstock. And Simon, if he's smart (and he is, he is) will keep it that way.

I don't disagree that Simon risks being defined by Davis-- especially if he doesn't define himself, and fast. But in this case the candidate will return the favor. About time.

[Thud]

California Hispanics are wedded to the Democrats and, as a group, haven't figured out yet that Simon is a Republican. When they do his poll standing will take a fatal lurch downward.

At this point Simon's worst personal weakness is lack of experience in elective office - he doesn't have a track record of being a reasonable guy and therefore a reasonable alternative to Gov. Davis. A consistent pro-Hispanic record in office would somewhat neutralize their visceral hatred of Republicans. A record in office of being able to get along with Democrats would somewhat neutralize the ill effects of being a conservative in a liberal state.

Gov. Davis' campaign will caricature Simon as just another misogynistic gringo anti-abortion gun nut (linking the last two together), IMO successfully to at least some degree, because Simon hasn't proved the contrary with a record in office. He plain hasn't held elective office.

And I think Gary South will try to paste that image on Simon with an expensive hit campaign right away rather than waiting until the summer. I'm sure Simon's people are aware of this but don't know if they have the money to counter it fast enough.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Well, Thud, you're just brimming with optimism aren't you. Not that I'm a fan of smiley-face happy-talk, but there's such a thing as taking plain-spoken pragmatism clear into the realm of habitual pessimism. Lighten up! The news could not be better for the primary for anyone who dreams of a free Golden State and remembers full well California's shocking electoral catharsis of 1966... a cleansing that mushroomed into a historic national inflection-point fourteen years later. I guess our fundamental point of disagreement is that I believe it can happen again.

Seems to me our discussion boils down to a matter of opinion, of belief:

o I don't see non-urban Hispanics as being wedded to the DemocRats. You do.

o I see a turnaround in the dwindling percentage of GOP voters actually going to the polls; you don't.

o I think this will reverse the dominance of the DemocRats in the general election; you don't.

o You see Simon as Schundler; I see him more as a Reagan or Ventura, riding a tide of disgust into a landslide victory in a state that conventional wisdom declares is indelibly DemocRat.

o You don't see Simon-the-outsider as being capable of avoiding a branding as just-another-eeeeevil-Republican. I do.

o You equate the political capital of the laughingstock Davis with the invisible Boxer. I disagree.

o You even say Simon can't afford to mount an image-making campaign early on. I guffaw at that and happily underscore that Simon's campaign is breaking the molds and will continue to do so. Simon was on my radar screen for more than a year, as my posts here will show, and I'm delighted--but not surprised--by his performance. Net sum: the base is energized in a way I haven't seen for two decades. And about this election-- to paraphrase Serpenthead: it's the base, stupid.

Obviously we're each making little headway with the other when it comes to matters of argument like those. So what can we agree-to in terms of constructive advice and criticism? Your caution that Simon must define himself early on or risk being defined by the DemocRats was a valuable and constructive contribution. Do you have more?

[Gophack]

Statistically, the performance of GOP candidates tracks perfectly with GOP turnout. The GOP has been outnumbered in California for decades-- that's nothing new. But give us a reason to go to the polls and we win.

You are absolutely 100% right!

Simon is the reason!

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

Simon was on my radar screen for more than a year, as my posts here will show, and I'm delighted--but not surprised--by his performance.

We're soulmates!

Go Simon!