Simon catapults over Riordan in poll ... Stunning rebound for businessman

S.F. Chronicle ^ | February 27, 2002 | Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer

[Gophack]

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon -- just two months ago a mere footnote in the polls -- has, for the first time, charged ahead of former front-runner Richard Riordan among likely GOP primary voters, a Field poll shows.

With just under a week to the March 5 primary, the poll shows Simon with the support of 37 percent of likely Republican voters to 31 percent for Riordan -- a stunning surge from last month, when Simon was 33 percentage points behind the former Los Angeles mayor. Secretary of State Bill Jones polled just 9 percent support while about 23 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed were undecided.

[Gophack]

GREAT news for Simon! GREAT news for all people in California, especially Republicans. We have a GREAT candidate who will lead our party and our state to victory!

Simon is beating Riordan ... Simon is ahead of Davis in a head-to-head match up. Davis might be SAYING NOW that he wants to run against Simon, but I think he always wanted to run against Riordan, just wanted to soften him up. Davis and his liberal Democrat cronies are underestimating Simon and his broad appeal.

One thing not mentioned in this article, but in the Field Poll, is that Simon is beating Riordan amoung WOMEN! Yes, Simon is up 10 points over Riordan in women. Take that!

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

Super Simon Ping!

[KC Burke]

I'm amazed the SFC didn't refer to Simon as "right-wing" or "conservative" and equally didn't characterize Riodan as "moderate". Can there really be some small hope for good journalism on the west coast?

[BibChr]

One thing not mentioned in this article, but in the Field Poll, is that Simon is beating Riordan amoung WOMEN!

But... that can't be! We ALL KNOW that THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THE UNIVERSE to EVERY WOMAN WITHOUT EXCEPTION is the ability to conceive and butcher as many babies, consecutively, as she can! And Simon doesn't hallow that blessed "right"!

< /acid sarcasm >

Dan

[Sabertooth]

Bumping Riordan's political carcass.

There it gooooooooooooooooooooooooes...........................................

[CounterCounterCulture]

Here's a graphic of the poll findings from the San Francisco Chronicle

[Dog Gone]

Simon is in an enviable position. Voters who don't pay much attention to politics (and that's most of them, unfortunately), are often attracted to the new face, especially if he begins surging in the polls. This story, for example, is likely to increase Simon's support because people like to vote for the winner.

I don't think Rudy's endorsement can be overstated as to its importance. It's the best thing that could have happened to Simon. Now, he's got the momentum just before the election.

For Riordan, this is The Perfect Storm.

[Gophack]

What this shows is that women are not 1) as liberal as everyone thinks (just some of them); 2) women who do consider themselves pro-choice also have opinions on other issues which can be conservative (like the right to defend themselves with a gun should some guy want to rape them or molest their children); and 3) maybe ... just maybe ... the hearts and minds of American women are changing to view abortion as wrong, even though they aren't willing -- yet -- to say it should be outlawed.

The fact is, most people -- women included -- vote for a variety of reasons, and abortion is usually not the most important issue. When abortion IS the most important issue, it is the PRO-LIFE voters who outnumber the PRO-CHOICE voters. And, those people who think that abortion is the most important issue and are PRO-CHOICE, they rarely, if ever, vote Republican EVEN when they have a pro-abort Republican to support. Why? because they are liberal across the board on guns, taxes, environment, etc., etc., etc and they would rather have any Democrat over the most liberal Republican.

Riordan insults women, and that's why Simon is doing so well. Women understand, even if they are not pro-life, that Simon is really a nice, compassionate guy and they respect his pro-life position on abortion, and are willing to look at the other issues that make him a good candidate for governor.

We're NOT STUPID!

Go Simon!

[Gophack]

This story, for example, is likely to increase Simon's support because people like to vote for the winner.

Excellent point!

[nickcarraway]

Definitely Simon. But Riordan does make his shirt sound pretty good. Maybe in 2010.

[jgorris]

...Riordan, despite his huge drop in support, still is viewed as having the best chance to broaden the party's appeal to women, members of minority groups and independents, the best experience to handle California's problems and the GOP's best bet to defeat Davis. ...

Still viewed as having the best chance by who?? Most DemocRats, no doubt.

LOL.

[nickcarraway]

In a race like this, don't the third-place candidate's votes collapse on election day?

[Gophack]

I think we're seeing that now, that Republicans are viewing this as a race between Riordan and Simon, and they don't want to "waste" their vote on Jones because he's so far behind ... I see those potential Jones' voters now coming over to Simon in droves. And, as Republicans have realized that Riordan is so bad on EVERYTHING, they are coming to Simon as well.

One point to make: while Davis' hit ads definitely helped bring Riordan's flaws to the forefront, if Simon hadn't positioned himself to receive the former Riordan support through running his radio and tv ads, those Riordan voted would have split fairly evenly between Simon and Jones, and Riordan may have still won. Simon was able to capitalize on Riordan's problems as highlighted by Davis AND Jones, because he had already introduced himself to the California electorate and people liked what they saw ... they just needed a reason to switch.

Go Super Simon!

[glennaro]

I think that news of Simon's lead over Riordan is not good for the California Republican Party. That is, I agree (for the first time on anything) with Gray Davis that Davis's real threat to re-election comes from Riordan, not Simon. That's why Davis is campaigning against Riordan (and, notably, not against Simon) in the primaries. And that is why the liberal press in California is giddy with reporting the news of Simon's lead.

While I would most certainly vote for Simon if he should run against Davis in November, I think that Simon's positions on many issues will cause a shift of a majority of undecided voters to Davis.

[helmsman]

Well, I have to hand it you, Gophack. You've been a major cheerleader for Bill Simon here on Freep since he was an asterisk in the polls. You kept insisting that he was the superior candidate, and it appears that you were correct. I only hope none of you out there get cocky, because I've seen political sure-things vanish in a mouse fart. People still need to go out and vote before we can rejoice over the political demise of "Dick."

[justshutupandtakeit]

Once the GOP candidate starts hammering Gov. GreyOut's incompetence, contradictions and lies I don't think the latter will win. Even at this point Simon beats him before concentrating fire on him. This can't plausibly be spun as good news for Duffus in any way.

[d14truth]

Don't forget to VOTE!!! on Tuesday, March 5--wouldn't be prudent--

[BlackElk]

Hey, you want to watch that. Being too optimistic can go to your head!

An IQ above room temperature leads to the inescapable conclusion that in a race between RINO riordan and Davis (term-limited, policy-challenged, IQ deficiency anemia, etc.) real Republicans vote Davis to preserve their party, preserve the slim chance that their state might survive (which it will not without a real Republican Party) and drive the RINOs into the Pacific even at the risk of water pollution.

The notion that only RINO can win is a bit passe now that Simon is leading Grayout and Grayout's track record cannot improve as to what he has screwed up in the first 3 1/2 years. RINO is dropping like a lead sinker. Time for Jones voters and Jones to come on home and finish off riordan.

The blood is in the water. Attack! Attack!

[CounterCounterCulture]

Riordan winning would cause many to stay home in November and kill the entire ticket. He is political poison and will not appeal to many on the left or the middle. When given the choice between a leftist Democrat pretending to be a moderate like Gray Davis and a leftist Republican boasting about his leftist credentials, the voters will go to the Democrat. Leftists trump neo-leftists. (See Dianne Feinstein vs Tom Campbell 2000)

[ElkGroveDan]

While I would most certainly vote for Simon if he should run against Davis in November, I think that Simon's positions on many issues will cause a shift of a majority of undecided voters to Davis.

Which issues. Skip over abortion since Lungren actually gained a percent over Davis on that one in 1998 according to the LA Times exit poll..... but which OTHER issues?