Our Galaxy Should Be Teeming With Civilizations, But Where Are They?

www.space.com ^ | 10/25/01 | Seth Shostak

[Dimensio]

* Jesus’ atoning sacrifice was a one-time event that covers aliens too. Oxford cosmologist E. A. Milne suggested that missionaries will eventually be preaching the good news to far-flung galaxies.

Marklar of Marklar: ...you marklar must go.
Missionaries: But you will burn forever in eternal hellfire!
Marklar of Marklar: Yes, yes, that's nice, thanks for stopping by.

[weikel]

Hello Marklar this is Marklar approaching Marklar

[null and void]

The fromage ate them...

[boris]

I would like to believe the universe is teeming with intelligent ETs.

However, the Fermi Paradox and its descendants, e.g., Rare Earth--I find persuasive.

Therefore I am forced to conclude that we are alone--at least in this galaxy.

This is disturbing in many ways. For instance, if we are the best the Universe can come up with...it's a pretty sorry universe!

It gives everything a horrible portent. If you and I are members of the only intelligent species in the Universe, every time we go to the toilet takes on terrific import...

--Boris

[Young Werther]

It's "Second star from the left and straight on 'til morning."

[Texaggie79]

Roger Murdock: "We have clearance, Clerance."
Captain Oveur: "Roger, Roger. What's our vector, Victor?"

[LJLucido]

Marklar of Marklar: ...you marklar must go.

All Marklar's Marklar are belong to Marklar.

[weikel]

That wav caused my winamp to crash no biggie lol.

[Texaggie79]

roger weikel

[widgysoft]

on vacation?

[Bogey78O]

Who's to say we aren't the first? We could easily establish the first intergalactic empire...bwahaha!

[SamAdams76]

Well look at it this way. In order to colonize the galaxy, the light barrier would have to be broken. Otherwise it would take thousands of (earth) years to move about the galaxy. Assuming that other civilizations would have a lifespan comparable to humans on Earth, trips of such length would be impractical.

On the other hand, if other civilizations were able to break the light barrier, then they would have been able to time travel also, meaning they would have been here already.

This also means that we never broke the light barrier or achieved time travel here on Earth with our own civilization. Not even millions or billions of years from now. Because if our civilization was able to time travel far off in the future, they would have already been here.

[Check6]

Let us suppose that you are walking through the forest and encounter an ant hill. It is an interesting ant colony, but an ant colony nonetheless. You feel no compulsion whatsoever to stoop down and attempt to converse with the ants. This might be the scenario played out as advanced civilizations cruise through our little part of the galaxy and pay us curiosity visits.

[Dog Gone]

Every civilization capable of reaching the stars is capable of blowing itself up or being hit by some space debris that effectively ends civilization or even the species entirely.

Alternatively, any civilization that reaches a suitable planet may discover that any life existing there is extremely toxic to their systems. Our best defense against a colonizing life form could be E. coli, for example.

[Texaggie79]

You watched the Mothman prophecies too?

[markfiveFF]

I did a library research paper for a library science course back in 1974 - on extraterrestrial intelligence. It was a scholarly report. This means that, in 1974, I was able to read and summarize everything that had been published to date on ETI.

Some observations:

Sagan was a Communist. Read "Intelligent Life in the Universe." Schlovskii and Sagan, 1964 (I am doing this from memory, so I may be imprecise) followed Soviet ideology.

Fermi was on the right track. The quote "Then where are they?" has been variously attrbiuted to 1939 and 1950. The Drake Equations point further along the way.

Robert Zubrin (in the 2002 April Analog) give one set of solutions to the equations. It is the wrong set.

The equations point to a range solution, not a single solution. My original calculations, using a log-normal distribution, suggested a maximum probability of one intelligent starfaring civilization in our near light sphere, (about 1 billion light-years in any direction) per billion years.

My newer upper range estimate would be about one civilization emerging per million years.

Sagan and Zubrin assumed (incorrectly) that the transistion from life t technological life is high probability. The Fermi paradox implictly states that it is not. Sagan-Zubrin focuses on possibilty. The Fermi paradox asuumes that we haven't observed alins because none are within observational range.

[RichInOC]

"Fifteen hundred years ago, everybody knew that the earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew that the earth was flat. And fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."

--K (Tommy Lee Jones), Men In Black

[1 FELLOW FREEPER]

The galaxies saw what Clinton did to the United States, and decided not to bother.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I Marklar your Marklar. Hey Marklar!