If Riordan gets the nomination, he'll clearly have trouble securing the votes of the conservative wing. They'd rather have Davis get the nod than to vote for Riordan. I question the wisdom of that, but I don't doubt it.
The only way Riordan wins is if he gets a sizeable amount of Democrats to vote for him. But, that's probably true of whomever the Republicans nominate, because you don't have the votes by yourselves.
The political equation is whether more Republicans would turn out to vote for Simon in the General Election, and in what numbers. I don't think it's a stretch to guess that Simon would get less Democrat voter support than Riordan would.
BTW, I hope you check out the postings I made on precisely the topic of your thesis.
California is so big, so vast, and with such different interests, that this isn't just a few thousand conservatives that stay home, but millions. California has thumbed it's nose at conservatives -- people who believe children should be taught abstinence, that gay marriage is wrong, that abortions should be reduced -- and conservatives, therefore, don't vote (many, not all of course!). California is really 6 or 8 different states. You can't compare us to any other state.
Conservatives CAN win, it's more a matter of personality and vision and leadership than any one issue. Riordan could never win, because the Democrats are far more loyal to their party than Republicans are to theirs. There is a small swing constituency among Democrats, and the decline to states, and the fact that REpublicans turn out in higher numbers than Democrats ... that's what gives conservatives the potential.
You are making the erroneous assumption that there is a static universe of voters in each election who change their minds and switch back and forth between parties depending upon idealogies.
That is not what happens. That is not how offices change hands. The fact is that just over half of all eligible voters ever bother to vote, half of all conservative, half of all liberals, half of all, gunners, homeschoolers, prolifers etc.
When elections (even landslides) are won by less than 10%, imagine what would happen if every single conservative voted in an election? We would sweep every office on the ballot. That's how you make a difference and that is how governors' offfices and senate seats change hands. A candidate comes along that piques the interest of one or more constituencies. Interested supporters then register to vote and turn out in droves on election day.
What has happened in California in recent years is that conservatives have been disillusioned by the candidates at the top of the ticket. Now imagine what would happen if we had a Reaganesque candidate as our nominee in November. Imagine that.
Imagine that his name is Bill Simon. Imagine indeed. Now wake up. Its not a dream. Lets get him the nomination and the press folks' jaws will be hanging on the floor this fall, as they were in 1994 when Newt took over the House of Representatives. Wouldn't that be nice?