The Register-Guard
Posted on 02/03/2002 2:03:25 PM PST by ThreePantherEightyDuce
Drought washes out: This year's snowpack is the best in February since 1974
By SCOTT MABEN
The Register-Guard
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Mother Nature has delivered Oregon from one of the driest years on record to a year of ample mountain snowpacks, swollen rivers and the promise of full reservoirs this summer.
Skiers, boaters, anglers, farmers and hydropower generators are seeing a swift return to normal conditions. If wet weather continues during the next two months, Oregon's brief bout with drought will be history for sure.
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 Tom Finegan of the Natural Resources Conservation Service checks the depth of snow on the Willamette Pass near Salt Creek Falls on Monday. He measured 6 feet of snow. Western Oregon and much of the state east of the Cascades are in full recovery from the drought. Photos: THOMAS BOYD / The Register-Guard |
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"It's very good news," Fox said. "The water supply for the next six or seven months is looking very good, especially in the Willamette system."
Western Oregon and much of the state east of the Cascades are in full recovery from the drought, said George Taylor of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University.
"We're pretty much looking good everywhere, including places that were really bad last year - the Klamath and Rogue basins," Taylor said.
Already healthy by the end of December, snowpacks got a big boost from the January storms. Statewide, the "snow-water content" - the amount of water stored in the snowpack - is 143 percent of the 30-year average. A year ago, it was 62 percent of average.
The Cascades are doing especially well. The snow-water content is 160 percent of average in the Willamette Basin and 181 percent on Mount Hood. Even the snow in the Klamath Basin, parched last summer and the site of a bitter water war, has a snow-water content that is 119 percent of average.
The spring and summer runoff is expected to fill most reservoirs in the state, including popular Detroit Lake east of Salem.
"Everything is looking very good this year," said Julie Ammann, a hydrologic engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Reservoir Control Center in Portland. "We show good odds of refilling our projects this year."
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 Tom Finegan digs steps into the snowbank so he can snowshoe into the observation site to measure the snowpack on the Willamette Pass near Salt Creek Falls.
Finegan climbs out of the shed that holds the instruments that show precipitation and snow density on the Willamette Pass. |
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At this point, officials haven't yet declared an official end to the drought, but they acknowledge that it may be only a matter of paperwork.
"I do not know of any water shortages anywhere in the state," Fox said.
The snow piles up
On the Willamette Pass near Salt Creek Falls, Tom Finegan plunges a long, hollow aluminum tube down through the layers of snow until he hits earth. Then he pulls it up, drawing a core of snow 6 feet long.
Finegan, with the Dallas office of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, carefully weighs and measures the sample to gauge what's in store for rivers and reservoirs this year.
"There's a lot of ice in there," he says, knocking the core out of the tube.
That's a positive sign. Layers of ice near the bottom of the heap mean the snow is dense, holding plenty of water, and cold, meaning it will melt gradually and feed streams over a longer period.
But the big news this day is the large amount of snow compared with last year. At 4,000 feet, there are 20 inches of water suspended in time, awaiting the big thaw.
A year earlier at the same location the snow held only about 9 inches of water; the average for late January is 12.7 inches.
Automated snow survey stations dotting the Cascades relay the same story. The snowpack is registering two to three times the snow-water content of a year ago.
At Marion Forks, southwest of Mount Jefferson and upstream from Detroit Lake, the snow-water content is 2 1/2 times the average, with a foot more water than usual. At another measuring station nearby, the snow's water content is a whopping 20 inches above average.
Skiers are delighted
The heavy snow has brought booming business to the state's ski areas, which saw skier numbers dip sharply last winter due to poor snow conditions.
Willamette Pass already has seen 3 feet more snow this year than the total snowfall for the entire 2000-01 season, said Randy Rogers, director of skiing. Last weekend, the midmountain snowpack hit 100 inches - a rare benchmark, Rogers said.
"Right now, we have as much snow on the ground as we've ever had in January," he said. "We definitely have enough now to last us well into April."
The ski area plans to operate through April 7, when skiing traditionally begins to drop off.
The quality of the snow is getting raves as well as the quantity of snow. Cool temperatures have consistently produced the powder that skiers love.
"Every week somebody says this is the best they've ever seen it," Rogers said.
"Night and day" is how Mike Anderson, lift operations manager at Hoodoo, describes the difference from last year. "This year we've had not only so much more snow, but so much better snow," he said.
December was one of the busiest months ever for the Santiam Pass ski area, Anderson said.
At Mount Bachelor near Bend, the snowpack hit a season high of 12 feet last week - more than twice what was on the ground a year ago. In another measure of the dramatic change, the deepest Bachelor's snowpack reached last winter was 7 feet, 3 inches, in mid-March. This season, the snow reached that depth four months sooner.
The mid-January storms dumped 7 feet of snow on the mountain in 10 days, to the chagrin of grooming crews.
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 In late May 2001, Detroit Lake was nowhere ready for its usual influx of recreational boaters. This year's spring and summer runoff is expected to fill the popular reservoir east of Salem. Photo: JAMES SHIPLEY / The Register-Guard |
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Rivers are running high
With all the snow from the first half of winter and more on the way - the snowpack usually peaks around April 1, then begins receding - rivers are expected to run high this spring.
The water supply forecast from the National Weather Service calls for spring flows of 108 percent of average for the McKenzie River, 112 percent for the Rogue and 119 percent for the Willamette.
That's good news for hydropower generators, irrigators and whitewater enthusiasts.
"It's shaping up to be a better than normal water year," said Barry Norris of the state Water Resources Department. "We're so far ahead of where we were last year, it's not even close."
But Norris and others cautioned that a swing in the climate could turn the wet trend around, and said it's a bit premature to declare an absolute end to the drought.
"There's an outside chance things could turn out dry for the rest of the year," he said. "But it's not likely."
Norris sits on the state drought council and heads that group's water availability committee, which met Jan. 25 to assess the water outlook. The committee acknowledged that signs of drought have all but washed away in most areas.
However, the panel will wait until March 22 to make a recommendation to Gov. John Kitzhaber on rescinding drought declarations for 18 counties in Southern and Eastern Oregon.
Fox, who also is on the drought council, agreed it's best to wait and see what happens through the rest of the winter.
"If all of the sudden things turn dry, we'll have below-average streamflow for the spring and summer," he said. "If things continue wet like they are, we should have above-average streamflow. Not much above, but just above."
State and federal officials also are on guard against a "pineapple express," a burst of warm, moist air that can produce heavy rains and melt some of the snowpack. Such a weather system hit the Northwest six years ago this week, causing floods that turned into Oregon's worst natural disaster in 32 years.
"If we get an early, warm rain, you could lose a significant amount of the snowpack pretty quick," Finegan said.
The Willamette Valley is even more vulnerable this year, Fox said, because snowpacks are heavier and at lower elevations and the rivers are higher than they were before the 1996 floods.
The National Weather Service says Western Oregon can expect temperatures slightly above average through April. As for precipitation, there's no indication of an especially wet or dry spring.
"It probably will continue to be on the normal side of things," National Weather Service meteorologist Clinton Rockey said. "And it may be a nice, warm summer."
Filling up the reservoirs
As long as rain and snow continues to fall in normal amounts into the spring, most reservoirs should fully recover from the drought and the normal winter drawdown, federal officials say.
"We're catching up," Fox said. "Slow but sure, we're catching up."
One exception is the enormous Owyhee Reservoir in Eastern Oregon, near the Idaho border. Critical to Malheur County farmers, the reservoir may refill only halfway. But, because it holds a two-year supply of irrigation water, that would be enough to get through this year's growing season.
The Corps of Engineers began refilling flood-control reservoirs in the Willamette Basin on Friday. In Lane County, those include Hills Creek, Lookout Point, Fall Creek, Blue River, Cottage Grove and Dorena lakes.
West of Eugene, Fern Ridge Lake - a popular destination for boaters and sailors - already is about half full. It fills mostly from spring rains and runoff from the Coast Range.
However, fans of Cougar Lake on the McKenzie River will have to find someplace else to play this summer. The Corps of Engineers plans to nearly drain it for a construction project aimed at improving water conditions for fish. The reservoir will be drawn down the next two years as well.
Wildly popular with boaters, Detroit Lake was too low to support its usual level of recreation last year. The mild winter kept the reservoir from rebounding, and the Corps of Engineers decided to take it down even farther to aid threatened salmon.
Stumps and mudflats filled the summer playground and longtime residents said they'd never seen it go so low.
"It got pretty bad financially for everybody," said Tee Berthel, owner of the Repose and Repast Bed & Breakfast in Detroit. "The impact was greatest on the marinas, of course, because they were totally shut down. But the rippling effect on the lodging industry was tremendous."
This year the water is expected to reach the boat docks and campgrounds again.
"It looks like the water supply will be normal and we won't have to take extreme measures to meet salmon flows," said Ammann, of the Corps of Engineers.
Local business owners are encouraged by the winter weather, Berthel said. But they still worry that federal officials may again lower the reservoir during the busy summer season to benefit fish runs in the Willamette.
"I know we've had just tons and tons of rain and snow pretty constantly since November," she said. "But we're still not out of the woods as far as the lake issues go. The drought was a catalyst but was not the only thing that caused problems last year."
SNOWPACK
Water content in snow, percentage of historical average (vs. one year ago)
• Statewide:
143% (62%)
• Willamette Basin: 160% (64%)
• Mount Hood: 181% (69%)
• Klamath Basin: 119% (50%)
• Deschutes Basin: 133% (64%)
- U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service, Department of Agriculture
SKI AREA SNOWFALL
Accumulated inches of snowfall, measurements vary based on length of ski season at each area
• Willamette Pass:
Snowfall to date:
266 in.
Last winter: 230 in.
10-year avg: 320 in.
• Hoodoo:
Snowfall to date:
329 in.
Last winter: 255 in.
10-year avg: 340 in.
• Mount Bachelor:
Snowfall to date:
275 in.
Last winter: 162 in.
10-year avg: 356 in.
- Willamette Pass, Hoodoo, Mount Bachelor
PRECIPITATION
Percentage of historical average, Oct. 1, 2001, through Jan. 29, 2002
• Willamette Basin: 125%
• Hood River-Lower Deschutes Basins: 119%
• Rogue-Umpqua Basins: 117%
- National Weather Service
WATER SUPPLY
FORECAST
Percentage of historical average, based on projected volume of basin runoff
• Willamette River at Salem:
119%
• McKenzie River at Vida: 108%
• Rogue River at Raygold: 112%
• Columbia River at The Dalles:
95%
- River Forecast Center,
National Weather Service
More energy and drought coverage:
I have been reading about the water bank proposals, where farmers can sell water they don't intend to use, and about the next species being filed on for ESA protection; so the struggle is far from over.
I loved this quote: "Both the Bonneville Power Administration, the federal power marketing agency in the Northwest, and the Eugene Water & Electric Board expect there to be enough water this year to meet customer needs and have surplus power to sell on the spot market.
At this point, officials haven't yet declared an official end to the drought, but they acknowledge that it may be only a matter of paperwork."
Translated, this means that the enviral Nazi Nannies who work for the drought agencies, are not really to give up their power quite yet. Maybe if the spring thaws flood out their offices and them, they will declare the drought is over.
The most depressed people in Napa are the Drought Nazis, who try to control our water use. After a dry winter 2000, spring and early summer, they were ready to tell us no showers, no lawns/gardens and we could drink water only on even days. We have had a drought breaking early winter, and they are out of power and a job!
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