You're exactly right! This budget debacle is only going to get worse after around May 1, when the state starts to get a good idea about tax receipts. Receipts are going to be lower than they expect and that's when the blood is going to start to flow.
Unfortunately, for GOP Assembly candidates running against Dem incumbents, this will make for excellent political fodder but the vast majority of these incumbents are in safe districts. The GOP will be extremely lucky to knock off one or maybe 2 incumbents. At least the Dems won't be successful in achieving a super-majority status. In other words, I think most Dems are going to be willing to take political risks i.e. raising taxes. At the very least, they will allow others to do their dirty work such as the initiative to raise the sales tax by 1%.
Realistically, the only chance the GOP has to make a difference in state gov't is the governor's office. Unfortunately, DICK will be the absolute worst standard-bearer for fiscal matters. Simon is our only hope but he really has an uphill climb against DICK.
You are right. We won't get the majority anytime soon with this Democrat reapportionment, but if we nominate a conservative for Governor, we can motivate our people to go to the polls in November. The REAL problem with liberal Dick Riordan is that if he wins the primary in addition to him losing to Davis, he'll alienate our conservative base and we would be jeopardizing several assembly contests. In an average to good year, we'll have 30 assembly seats. If Simon wins, I can see 32. If Riordan wins, we'll be LUCKY to have 28.
Simon does have an uphill battle simply because of name ID. I thought he did fairly well in the debate, but he needs to be a little more comfortable and less rigid. It was an inspiration that he came out strongly for his beliefs -- it shows that he means what he says and says what he means. THAT, my friend, will go far.