Posted on 01/21/2002 2:42:23 PM PST by Dog Gone
WASHINGTON, Jan 22, 2002 - With important midterm elections less than a year away, I would in past years be moving all around the country in search of insights. But now, as an armchair observer, I turn to those regarded as political experts to help me out.
The Washington Post's David Broder and Dan Balz - who almost continually are on the campaign trail, interviewing and observing - tell us that "the political landscape is marked by concern over an economy in recession, threats of additional terrorist attacks at home, and uncertainty about the next phase of the war on terrorism abroad."
These veteran reporters then come up with this conclusion: Control of the House and Senate is at stake and there are too many variables to make a prediction on how it is going to end up.
Then I phoned that fine pollster John Zogby, who has a reputation for "calling 'em right." He tells me his polling has given him a pretty clear perception of what lies ahead. "The next few months could be critical for the president," says Mr. Zogby. "His numbers could evaporate as quickly as his father's."
Zogby says his polls indicate that Mr. Bush's sky-high standing with the voters could take a decided dip if he doesn't quickly put through domestic legislation that is acceptable to the millions of Democrats who have swelled the president's approval rating. And, says Zogby, a president whose popularity goes into a sharp decline in the months leading up to the November elections could well shape a political atmosphere in which Bush's influence on the outcome (the coattails) would diminish if not end entirely.
When asked which party's candidate they would vote for in the congressional elections, voters are telling Zogby they're split. That shows movement toward the Democrats. Right after the Sept. 11 terrorist attack, the Zogby poll gave the Republicans a 2 percent edge.
Indeed, at that time, Zogby told us at a Monitor breakfast that this Republican margin would "probably" increase as the war continued - a result of the president's wartime popularity.
But Zogby admits it hasn't turned out that way. Indeed, on the day I was talking to him, the pollster said the president had fallen 5 points in his latest poll - from 85 to 80 percent - still very high "positives" but below the 90 percent rating he had been drawing for some time.
So here's how I, from the sidelines, see this muddled political picture, in which 36 governorships, 34 Senate seats, and all 435 House seats will be on the ballot: This global war will continue with increased and hotter engagements as time goes on, certainly if Bush carries out the intentions he voiced in that first speech to Congress following the Sept. 11 attack - that he would also go after those who "harbor" terrorists.
It is my opinion that in this continuing war, Bush's approval will remain high and his popularity will rub off just enough in the elections to help him hold the House and keep the Democratic majority slim in the Senate. Those Bush coattails will also help keep a majority, though a smaller one, of GOP governors.
I agree that Bush might lose a lot of support if he doesn't deal properly with domestic problems - particularly the economy. We saw the president's father losing his war-related popularity almost overnight by failing to convince people that he was trying to do something about growing joblessness.
GW is showing that he is well aware of his father's mistake, which cost him reelection. He's working hard to enact an economic-stimulus program and that effort, of itself, tells the voters (despite sharp criticism from the Democrats) that he's doing something to end the recession.
A compromise on the legislation is likely. Such an outcome should still leave an impression with voters that Bush is trying to help them.
I would refer back to this poll question from theFox poll January 10,2002
35. Do you agree or disagree with those who say Democrats would rather use the economic downturn as an election issue than work to improve the economy? 1. Agree 52% 2. Disagree 30 3. (Not sure) 18
Furthermore, Bush Sr. alienated much of his base when he reneged on his infamous "Read my lips - No New Taxes!" pledge - the centerpiece of his campaign.
Zogby essentially tells us that President Bush will lose support if he does not satisfy the "millions of Democrats" who have moved into his camp with some "domestic legislation" which is just an euphemism for enlarging government and raising taxes. This would be a disaster for President GW Bush and I'm sure he knows it.
He's got the support of the American people for the way he has handled the 9/11 crisis. The American people - including most Democrats, are behind Bush for the long haul so long as we continue the war on terrorism.
Exactly. Bush does not have to move to the left this year. For one thing, he's not up for re-election, and if his approval ratings drop down below 60%, that is still quite high.
But I don't think we have to worry about it. Bush starts out insisting on what he truly wants, and only then makes what concessions he needs to in order to get as close to it as he can. He doesn't posture in order to get votes.
Additional threads about the upcoming election with predictions....
1. Any politician that will put some money back into their
pockets.
2. Any politician that will make every attempt to keep government
out of their personal lives.
3. Any politician that will attempt to downsize the bureaucracy.
4. Any politician that will attempt to downsize the government payroll.
5. Any politician that will attempt to keep government out of
any aspect of their ability to help themselves financially.
6. Any politician that will demand and give accountability of
his office and those he is involved with.
7. Any politician that will be honest regarding his or her
participation in dubious dealings.
8. Any politician that supports civil rights and Constitutional rights,
and does so in a manner that excludes no-one.
9. Any politician that does not seek to decrease or interfere with
the basic principle and methodology of the Social Security System.
10. [and because this is Massachusetts] Any politician that can
actually drive across the Chappaquiddick bridge while intoxicated.
IOW, take his "advice" with, at most, a grain of salt. In fact, ignore it. The man's a drooling twerp.........and I couldn't care less about the supposed "accuracy" of his polls (which, by the way, haven't been nearly so accurate as is purported).
re:
".....In fact, it can be argued that we wouldn't be in the situation
we are in now had we taken Sadaam out back then......
Saddam's son, who is now paralyzed and near death, would have been
placed in charge at that time, had Saddam died. That son would have been
worse that Saddam. Not removing Saddam was explained well, at that
time, but downplayed and distorted by the liberally biased media.
Re:
.....Furthermore, Bush Sr. alienated much of his base when he
reneged on his infamous "Read my lips - No New Taxes!" pledge
the centerpiece of his campaign........."
I'm so damned sick of that propaganda. Bush Senior had no choice,
but to compromise with the democrap majority in House and Senate.
If the so-called "conservatives" got off their collective asses and elected
a majority, Bush would have had the control he needed.
The democrap BS is sickening enough to take, without having it
continually repeated by those claiming to be "conservatives".
UGH.
Generic House Ballot Test
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: Jan. 11-14, 2002. N=885 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4. | ||||||
|
. |
||||||
| "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district [rotate]: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate?" | ||||||
| Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.)/ Undecided |
||||
| % | % | % | ||||
| 1/02 | 46 | 43 | 11 | |||
| 12/01 | 48 | 43 | 9 | |||
| 11/01 | 45 | 45 | 10 | |||
| 6/01 | 45 | 49 | 6 | |||
|
|
||||||
I concur that his liberal leanings are self-evident. And he himself admits that his predictions were wrong in this very article.
But I'm not entirely willing to discount his current results. As far as giving his advice to Bush any weight, I don't. His powers of prediction of what the population will want in the future are no better than anyone else's, and his are colored by Democrat leanings.
So the Rats are pulling out their "secret Zogby weapon". The man who is always touted for "getting it right", but who laid down the cover for the DemonRat fraud in the 2000 election. It looks from this article that Zogby is expanding his enterprise from polling into political consulting.
Also, "taking out Sadaam" would not have allowed for his son to take control.
Same way Clinton did.
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