Bush/Cheney in 2004!
He knows that, if he leaves the GOP to run as a third party candidate, his political future is over.
He's doing a fine job representing his district, which is where he will stay.
If a Ross Perot or a Ron Paul were ever elected president he would find 100 senators and 400 plus congressmen allied against him. On top of that all the media would be allied with both major parties to take him down.
There is really only two viable options to change the direction of this nation. First the violent overthrow of the government and the second is to take over one of the two major parties.
It is impossible to go from 4 or 5 percent support to over 50 in an election cycle. The presidency with out at least significant support in the house and senate is worthless. But if a third party ever won the Presidency both the house and the senate allied with the media would block every move that was tried. The media would saddle such president with all the the blame. One term would destory his movement.
The only practical method of really changing things is to get very active in one of the two major parties and take it over. When that is done the loyalty of its congressional delegation can be used to further an agenda to which many members of the party are opposed.
The Democratic party of the 1920's was mostly conservative. It was dominated by southern conservatives. But from 1900 to 1932 the Democrats only held power for 8 out of 32 years. That losing record let FDR get the nomination. FDR was liberal but the Southern Democrats held their noses and voted for him. By 1970 the entire Democratic party was liberal and most conservatives had moved to the Republican party. The solid Democratic South became the Solid Republican South. In just this year the last of the liberal northern Republicans have moved to the Democratic party. Yes virginia the Republican party of Teddy Roosevelt was very liberal.
What the far right has never understood is that most people do not agree with them. They think that if only all the public knew about what they stood for they would join them in changing the government. The fact is most people know what they stand for and less than 5 percent agree with them.
Democratic candidate always ask how far right do I have to go to get enough of the center to win. Can you say NEW DEMOCRAT? Uh huh. The Republicans always ask how far left do I have to go to get enough of the center to win. Can you say COMPASSIONATE CONSERVATIVE? Un huh. Since an out of power party has no power, they always try to move positions so they can get a majority. Winning is the name of the game. If you lose nothing can be accomplished.
The far left often pulls out of the Democrat coalition forcing the Democrats to move to the right. The Right has never done more than flirt wiht the Republican coalition forcing them to go to the left to get more support.
The Ralph Naders, Alan Keyes, and Ron Pauls all know the score. They have studied the game. But there is fame and bucks in leading the suckers to into a game they can never win. Somehow there are always a few hundred thousand suckers who think they can win.
The worst thing that can happen to a splinter leader is for the party closest to him to win. When a Repubican wins Pauls and Keyes jump on him for failing to counter Gephardt and Daschle. When a party is in power the splinter group most like them is their most vicious attacker. If Gore had won Nader would be all over Gore. When political types do that it is pretty good evidence they are out for themselves and not their causes. The splinters on both sides are never part of an equation for victory.
One final thought I never write to convince the people I answer. In this kind of post they are always committed to the wild goose chase of eternal failure. I write to the reader who really wants to make a change. To make change, the only course of action is to get into one of the major parties and work to change it to your views. If you work hard to elect a candidate, that candidate will think long and hard before voting a way you don't want. He or she will often go against their own beliefs to satisfy those that elect them. It is the way our government works.
People who play on emotion, while ignoring the rules, never ever win. They do cry and threaten a lot...but they NEVER EVER WIN and they have ZERO ifluence on policy and law.
Think about it. To make things better, you have to chose a mehtod that works.
Instead of bombing the crap out of the Taliban, he favored issuing rewards for private citizens to go get bin Laden.
There are many other examples of eccentric votes and suggestions that would be raised which would torpedo any chance of success.
He's a good man. He's principled and not afraid to stand up for his beliefs. But he's not the kind of man that America wants for its President.