Slim to none if the current pope has anything to do with the selection. There is much speculation that the next pope may be South American or African, however... and who and who isn't "papabile" is always fodder for conversation in Vatican City.
I'm almost certain that the next Pope will be Italian. JPII was elected thanks in part to a three way split of competing Italian candidates. Konig, a German cardinal, "campaigned" for JPII who was an outside favorite and got him elected with the help of "Germanic" and US votes.
This time around a conservative Italian cardinal will be elected.