IMO, Gary Carter is belongs in the HOF, but shouldn't have gone in on the first ballot (and still hasn't gone in, obviously). The difference is that while he was a great catcher and has solid HOF credentials, he isn't Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella or Johnny Bench.
Similarly, I thought it was a sham a few years back when George Brett and Robin Yount went in together as first-ballot picks. Brett, I believe was clearly a first-ballot pick while Yount -- if he went in at all -- certainly didn't have the overwhelming numbers to put him in immediately. Have you ever wondered why Yount went in on the first ballot and Dale Murphy and Jim Rice, among others with similar credentials, are still on the outside looking in?
Because Yount had 3,000 hits. Yet, he was a .285 career hitter and only broke .300 six times in twenty seasons in the bigs. Despite his hit total, he probably wouldn't have been on my first ballot. He's a classic example of how longevity can get you to Cooperstown. So, I agree with you.
For my money, the most deserving player who isn't in the Hall is Bert Blyleven. He's only the fourth-leading strikeout pitcher of all time, but despite two Series rings (two more than Yount) he spent the majority of his career on poor teams and didn't win 300 games (stopped at 287).
He's also the only inactive member of the all-time top ten in Ks who isn't in the Hall. It's time.
I don't know about Dale Murphy, but Jim Rice was notoriously unfriendly to reporters (message to borderline HOFers -- be nice to the press, as they'll be one day be filling out the HOF ballots with your name on them.)