For many years, military experts noted that China's leaders like Mao spoke bombasitcally but were actually very cautious in their use of military power. But China has become more "assertive" in recent years. In 1974, it seized severl of the Parcel Islands in the South China Sea from Vietnam. In 1979, it broke its still frequently-reiterated promise never to be the first to resort to arms when it attacked over the north Vietnamese border. In 1988, the Chinese sank three Vietnamese ships in the Sprtatlys area. More than seventy-five Vietnamese sailors were killed or missing. SInce then, CHina has gradually occupied addional islands in the Spratlys. In 1994, There was an episode in the Yellow Sea involving a Chinese submarine and American ships. In 1995, China sent an armed naval force that seized Mischief Reef from the Philippines. In 1996, it fired missiles off the coast of Taiwan in an attempt to intimidate the residents of the island during the presidential elections there--a bit of saber rattling taken seriously enough in Washington for the Clinstone administration to respond. During the Taiwan episode, China warned the United States to stay out of the Taiwan Strait, which is an international waterway.
China in short is willing to use military force outside of its borders in what seem to be at least probing efforts, attempts to guage what the response of other countries will be, how strong their political will is, and who, if anyone, will come to their aid. It chose Vietnam as a target in part to see whether the Soviet Union would retaliate. In the Mischief Reef incident, it seemed to be testing whether the Philippines closest friends--its treaty ally, the United States, as well as its neighbors among the ASEAN nations would resopond. SO far, the attacks have been minor, but they have also demonstrated China's determination to exptend its power deep into the strategically crucial South China Sea. A quick look at a map will show the enormous thrust forward that CHina would gain by controlling the islands that it claims in what is effectively an island waterway that connects most of teh contries of Southeast Asia and governs the most important sea routes from Japan to the Middle East and Europe. Mischief Reef is in the southeast part of the South CHina Sea, about 800 nautical miles from the nearest point in undisputed CHinese territory, Hainan Island, but about 135 nautical miles from the nearest Point in the Philippines, the coast of Palawan Island. Fiery Cross Reef, in the Spratly Islands, where CHina now has built early warning radar installations, is even further south.
Hong Kong offers naval vessels free access to the best deep water ports in all of Asia, one poised at the northern entrance of the South CHina Sea. As part of the agreements for the handover, the British paid for constructions of a new naval base at Hong Kong's Stonecutters Island, with four hundred meters of deepwater frontage capable of taking even aircraft carriers. Some British analysts believe that CHina plans to turn Stonecutters into a major southern naval base, from which it could extend its control over the entire South China Sea.
Increasingly, China is looking abroad, not only to Russia, but now also to western European countries, to purchase advanced military hardware that will rapidly increase its power porjection capabilities. The latter half of 1996 witnessed an upsurge in such deal making, very likely propted by the PLA's failure to intimidate Taiwan with its military excercised and missile tests early that year. The fall of 1996 saw widespread reports that CHina was close to aquiring the aircraft carrier Clemenceau from France, reportedly with completely upgraded electronics and radar systems. Although years will pass before the CHinese Navy assebles all the other ships needed to constitute a modern aircraft carrier task force, the aquisition of the Clemenceau, particularly one with up-to-date electronics. would be a milestone.