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To: Tymesup
The calculation you link to in post 25 assumes that the probabilities are independent. While the witnesses are independent, what they are watching is not. For example, 10 people claiming a magician pulled a rabbit out of a hat doesn't mean that it actually happened that way.

To the extent that many independent witnesses report seeing a magician pull a rabbit out of a hat tends to refute a hypothesis that there is not one scintilla of evidence of a rabbit. True, they might not be able to put together the entire, correct, detailed scenario of how the magician did it. But should the NTSB (National Tricks and Subterfuge Bureau) categorically state the "card trick theory" is favored and that was no evidence of a rabbit at any time, and that therefore the witnesses must have been drunk, you may reasonably suspect that something is up.

This would appear to be the case with the missile theory and TWA 800 - except that there are also the matters of Mach 2 debris exiting the plane just before breakup, and the red residue and misrepresentation in court about it, and a secret evidence room for the FBI, and shrapnel removed from the victims, and some mysterious, fleeting radar hits prior to breakup, and the nose gear doors being blown inward and being among the first things off the plane, and fist-sized holes in some first-class seat-backs ... and the fact that aviation fuel puts out matches, and so on.

40 posted on 12/23/2001 9:04:06 PM PST by coloradan
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To: coloradan
Let's also not forget that:

The Navy originally denied they were in the area.
The Death on the High Seas Act was suspended so that families of the victims could collect more damages.
Boeing received a large contract shortly thereafter, enabling them to buy one of their competitors.
Monica Weaver and Larissa Uzupis, two teenagers who died in the crash.

42 posted on 12/24/2001 1:25:35 PM PST by Tymesup
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