Posted on 12/19/2001 7:40:21 AM PST by RCW2001
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key forecasting gauge for the U.S. economy rose for a second straight month in November, signaling a possible economic recovery in the first half of 2002, a private research firm said on Wednesday.
The Conference Board reported that the U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5 percent in November -- the largest rise since a 0.6 percent increase in May -- after a 0.1 percent gain the previous month.
The November rise was slightly above the expectations of Wall Street economists who had forecast a gain of 0.4 percent.
The leading economic index has risen in four of the past six months, which suggests that "the recession could be losing steam," the board said in a statement.
It said that if monthly gains continue to be seen in the index "an economic recovery in the first half of next year may be possible."
Conference Board economist Michael Fort, however, warned about reading too much into one report. "Despite the gains in the last two months, more declines may be in store in the near future as the recession continues its course," he said.
"If the economy is poised for recovery as early as spring 2002, the current improvement in the (index) will likely be sustained after New Year's," he added.
The coincident index, which gauges current economic trends, fell 0.2 percent in November after a 0.3 percent decline in October, the board said.
The lagging index, which measures past trends in the economy, was down 0.7 percent last month after a 0.6 percent drop in October.
Six of the 10 components that make up the leading indicators index were positive in November, led by initial jobless claims, the interest rate spread and stock prices.
The remaining four were negative, led by vendor performance and the average workweek.
The October index was revised downward from a previously reported 0.3 percent gain.
Right on! This is good news. If you want to get technical about it, one has to remember that the tax cut is going to be inplemented over a period of 10 years. This past year it was reduced by about 1% in each brackets and it will do the same next year and so on. This is another argument for those leftists in the democrat party that the tax cut should be frozen and so on.
For the most part I find that most people are optimistic and feel that things will turn around next year; even my friends who have recently "been relieved of their professional duties". Next year we are going to be talking abou the "Bush Recovery".
I like that! Lets start using it aften!
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