The mess that happened in Afganistan with the NA was largely due to Russia's installation of a ruling group that was totally un-acceptable to the Pashtuns. Civil war resulted and then Pakistan encouraged the Taliban to have a go at it. I don't think this senario will repeat.
You believe the NA will take the back seat I have a bridge to sell you. They did the heavy lifting. Russia comes out of this whole thing in the best position, not surprisingly. Bush is busy gushing about what a buddy Putin is, and the russkies are busy kicking ass and using the situation to their advantage. I would say overall game set and match Russia. They got a hell of a lot and WE are the ones who spent the billions getting them there.