Posted on 12/05/2001 6:04:50 PM PST by Fusion
European intelligence officers believe Albanian insurgents are preparing to renew their war with the Skopje government in an attempt to solidify their hold on the newly liberated zone of Northwestern Macedonia. Some two hundred former members of the Kosovo Liberation Army infiltrated Macedonia from Albania during the last week and are establishing positions above the insurgent capital of Tetovo. These shadowy fighters, operating under the Albanian National Army (ANA) banner, claim they will not permit the central government to reclaim this territory without a fight -- however their appearance may also signal increased political tension and maneuvering in Albania.
David Evans, a former SAS member and current ex officio Balkan adviser to the Blair government expresses concern over these recent developments, "These are veteran fighters returning to Macedonia, units reconstituted from Albanian special forces that fought in Kosovo in '98 and '99." Evans continues, "Their appearance at this time, while we are having gunfire every night near Tetovo, sends a strong signal that violence orchestrated from Prishtina and Tirana will soon resume."
The ANA has mystified western intelligence analysts since their appearance late in the war. This splinter group of the KLA has proclaimed their desire to unite Albanian inhabited areas within a loose confederation of Greater Albania. Their spectacular assault on a Macedonian army convoy as peace negotiations were stalled, demonstrated a much higher level of coordination and sophistication than earlier insurgent attacks.
Ali Butka served as a member of the government of then Albanian president Dr Sali Berisha in the mid 1990s. The Tirana engineer fought with Albanian partisans as a teenager in World War II and is considered a leading authority on Albanian nationalism movements and guerilla tactics. Over coffee in a Tirana cafe he explains why the West will turn a blind eye to the coming insurgent offensive, "You must understand what America has invested now in Albania. With Nano maneuvering behind the scenes against the government, the US must satisfy Berisha. The liberation of Macedonian lands by the KLA, or UCK, or ANA satisfies in a strange way both Nano and Berisha. Both can thus claim victory."
The current struggle for power in Albania between the old Socialist guard of Fatos Nano and the young revolutionaries of Prime Minister Ilir Meta is well known. Is it possible that this fight, combined with a greatly strengthened Sali Berisha platform of Gheg revisionism could return Albania to civil war as in 1997?
Jeanette Miller is the US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) representative for the Balkans. The striking brunette has been a constant visitor to Tirana during the past year and is not concerned, "Sure, we have a good deal of US money invested in Albania now. You can go to our website and see that, so of course we are interested in continued political stability. However if you believe Nano will win this internal power struggle then you are mistaken. Meta is in firm control -- there will be no upheaval in Albania."
Perhaps Ms Miller is correct. However Evans feels differently. He says, "There will be war in Macedonia again which only strengthens Berisha's position. Nano learned a great deal in prison about manipulating power, if his base is threatened he could collapse the Meta government in a week. The resulting vacuum will result in civil war next year in Albania. This new war on terrorism has made the US so focused on Afghanistan that they are once again clueless in the Balkans."
Reading the Balkan tea leaves is always difficult when it comes to understanding the competing Albanian nationalism agendas. However there is little doubt that a civil war next year in Albania would be catastrophic for the US position in Kosovo as American foreign policy mistakes made during the Clinton administration would be further exposed to the harsh light of renewed Gheg-Tosk warfare.
What is known is that with the current internal battle for power in Albania, Fatos Nano has as much reason as Dr Berisha to want continued fighting in Macedonia. Fighting that will force Meta to side against the insurgents when he bows to international pressure to do so. This will not be popular in Albania.
Thus the infiltration last week into Macedonia by a reinforced company of Albanian special forces loyal to both Nano and Berisha becomes even more significant. With gunfire increasingly ringing out each night in the Albanian sector of Macedonia it becomes clear that the ANA fights not only for the liberation of Tetovo and a Greater Albanian state -- but also brandishes the gun for an old guard in Albania proper.
Like an advanced pawn on the chessboard, the ANA now with a strategic value far beyond what appears to the novice player at first glance. Suddenly a few hundred veteran fighters with the ability to alter the entire geopolitical balance in the region as their fight magnified far beyond the borders of Macedonia. Once again the West has been fooled as it now appears they must eventually sacrifice Macedonia to keep a barely functional, but extremely strategic, Albanian state from collapsing once more into anarchy.
I wonder what Arta Dade thinks. She has served with Nano a long time and was also Meta's teacher at the university before going into politics. When Nano topples Meta I strongly advise him to consider her as the new Prime Minister
Somebody's hoping everybody's forgotten is all.
Future historians will refer to this as the Fourth Balkan War as it spreads to Kosovo and Bosnia this summer. (Fusion, 05/10/2001)
VRN
VRN
HAHHAHA... this was so funny! Glitter anyone?
Who's trembling now??
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