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Posted on 12/03/2001 1:48:46 PM PST by Enemy Of The State
Collapse of communist rule seen in China
By Tim Shorrock
WASHINGTON - Ian Buruma, a former fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Institute for the Humanities in Washington, and whose writings on Japanese politics and culture and the European fascination with Asia have captivated readers around the world, has now taken on the vast and complicated subject of China and what he sees as the impending collapse of a half-century of communist rule.
In his new book, Bad Elements: Among the Rebels, Dissidents and Democrats of Greater China, the London-based Buruma describes the world of the Chinese dissident and political prisoner, from the perspective of political activists based in mainland China, Taiwan and Singapore as well as the United States. Based on interviews conducted over five years, he argues that the Chinese regime in Beijing will inevitably fall because of corruption and the erosion of communism as its ruling ideology.
"Strange things happen from Chinese dynasties near their end," Buruma writes in the opening paragraph of his book. "Dams break, earthquakes hit, clouds appear in the shape of weird beasts, rain falls in odd colors and insects infect the countryside."
It is an ominous picture indeed.
Ominous, but justified, Buruma said. "Nobody believes in the dogma any more," he told a Washington forum organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. "Communism is simply not enough to give the government any legitimacy."
Without an ideological glue to bind its rule to the people, Buruma said the Chinese government has resorted to traditional calls to preserve order and national interests and blatant appeals to materialism - namely, that its market-oriented economic policies can help "everyone get richer".
But that approach could, in the long run, present serious problems, because the free flow of goods and open capital markets often produce economic crises, such as the one that gripped most of East Asia just a few short years ago.
"A government without legitimacy is not well placed to cope with a crisis," he said. "Things could get very ugly indeed." The likelihood of unrest is strongest in rural China and among the urban unemployed, said Buruma, who has spent many years in Asia and studied in Japan.
In analyzing the ruling circles in mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, Buruma sees striking parallels in the intersection between politics and culture. Throughout greater China, he says, there is an assumption by the ruling parties that their special brand of politics - whether Marxist-Leninist in Beijing or free-market authoritarianism in Singapore - means that government is the guardian of Chinese institutions and tradition.
"The idea that strong authoritarian government is a barrier against chaos" runs strong in both China and Singapore, he said. And in Taiwan, the Kuomintang, the longtime ruling party made up of Chinese exiles who fled the mainland in 1949, "saw themselves as the true guardians of the Chinese traditions smashed by Mao [Zedong]".
"It's a kind of cosmic idea of politics that goes back centuries," Buruma said. Traditional Chinese rulers view themselves as "people who mediate between heaven and Earth" and protect Chinese ethics, culture and politics from outside forces. That makes it easy for them to criticize "dissidents as anti-Chinese".
Such thinking has profound implications for dissidents. "To be a rebel means not just being a political rebel but [being] a savior of Chinese civilization," he added.
In the long run, Buruma said, "the only guarantee of stability in China" is a "democratic, representative system".
Minxin Pei, a political scientist and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the "real challenge" for Chinese dissidents is to "find practical ways to institutionalize democratic traditions". Pei argued that while democratic pluralism is the preferred route to stability, there are dangers ahead as China approaches the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule. "The transition itself is fraught with upheaval," he said. "The current regime is poorly equipped to deal with a democratic transition. It hasn't really faced up to its misdeeds and atrocities over the past 50 years." As a result, Chinese-style glasnost "is likely to unleash a flood of recrimination and anger" that would be "destabilizing rather than enhancing stability", said Pei.
Part of the problem, he suggested, is that the Communist Party is in complete control of the Chinese state. "If the party were to collapse, there is a failed state, or there is no state."
Pei cast doubt on whether overseas Chinese dissidents have the political capability to become a force in a post-communist China. Because dissidents are uprooted from their mother country, he said, their "voices are muted" and their ability to sustain themselves as a political force are limited. At the same time, within the United States dissidents are divided into factions that rarely compromise, further limiting their political effectiveness.
"When a regime changes, they'd have to compete with other groups for power," he said of the overseas groups. When that happened in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, he noted, the "Soviet exiles returned but quickly disappeared".
Dimon Liu, a US-based author who is one of those overseas dissidents, argued that a rapid transition to democracy is possible in China. "Anyone who argues for a slow transition is not a true democrat," she said. "If you're going to make a transition, make it quickly."
I believe I just read recently that he plans to organize and establish a "national security council" similar to that of ours here in the United States and then he plans to be the Chairman of that council in order to maintain his grip within the party.
Now, if only we can have that same disbelief in Leftism take place in America!
This, if true, is wonderful news. Absolutely wonderful. I believe that the truest way to achieve maximum worldwide peace is the dissolvement of Marxism in all of its vestiges (socialism, communism, "third-way," etc.).
"At the same time, within the United States dissidents are divided into factions that rarely compromise, further limiting their political effectiveness.
Not to start a war, but, I find this statement to be the very definition of Libertarians here in the U.S. Stomp, complain, yell, or whatever, but as long as you are not in power, your message is virutally moot. Libertarianize the GOP has the right idea by his username. If only there were a way for the GOP and Libertarians to find common ground and work to achieve that common ground!
If this news about China becomes more mainstream, you can rest assured that our pointy headed intelligensia will say that the Chinese didn't perform communism the right way, just as they say whenever the failure of communism in the U.S.S.R. is brought up.
Taiwan is a matter of national dignity. It has nothing to do with what political party or system rules China. When the US sold China to USSR by allowing Mongolia to split from China in Yalta in WWII, Chiang Kai-Shek even thought about negotiating with Japan to end the Sino-Japanese war so that the Red Army would have no reason to enter Manchuria.
Not likely. Its against the Chinese constitution and Jiang won't be able to do so. The CCP's doctine is "the party commanding the gun".
The person Jiang has tried to place in the leadership belongs to "gang of princelines", but Hu Jintao was from the "faction of youth league".
>>It is likely that Jiang will trey to keep his post as commander of the PLA, as Deng did, but uncertain whether he will be able to do it. Deng was a soldier, Jiang is a politician. The complaint against him here is that he is too soft.
If Jiang gives up the post as CCP's head, he can't keep the post as PLA commander. The complaint against him is not only his weakness but his failure in dealing with the Sino-US relaitions, especially after the embassy bombing and EP3 inccident.
The UN and the western nations refused to recognize PRC for over 20 years. The US recognized ROC in Taiwan with merely 20 million people as the sole and legitmate government representing China (with 1 billion people) for 30 years.
nicely said.
the issue is not if communism crumbles in china, the issue is whether or not the current leadership can invoke free market change as fast as those on the east coast desire. as an aside, if communism crumbles, i see some provences becoming autonomous.
That is the most bogus BS answer ever given. I am an advocate of arming Taipei with nuclear weapons, enough to destroy everything in the PRC, (which Taiwan never has belonged to). There is no such thing as one China. It is a fairy tale. 'one China' means 'preserve and don't challenge the CCP'.
There is though one communist party, and those jerks don't like competition. THAT is the problem.
It has everything to do with political system to everyone except people who make excuses about why they should go ahead and try to conquer Taiwan. It has most to do with the absolute arrogance of the CCP thinking they ARE China.
It is a matter of national pride only to the communist party who want to be able to say that they conquered everyone. "Pride" has a lot to do with it. Thats true. They are too prideful to do what is right so instead they fight.
I am telling you, China will be humilated if they don't starting thinking like civilized people.
Quit being uneducated. The only real reason the CCP has anything to do with Taiwan is #1 face, which the ccp lacks. #2 to save their own necks from the competion of a better political system...that sort of creates 'instablility in China', at least to the absolute rulers of the ccp that is...
When the US sold China to USSR by allowing Mongolia to split from China in Yalta in WWII, Chiang Kai-Shek even thought about negotiating with Japan to end the Sino-Japanese war so that the Red Army would have no reason to enter Manchuria.
Chiang Kai Shek was pissed off at America over all kinds of stuff. He blamed America, at least partially for the ongoing civil war... which I think he was right. With friends like John Paton Davies and the Dixie Mission who needs enemies.
There won't be any mercy at all if China does not get off of their national arrogance and start to look at Taiwan as equals, and not people to be conquered for the political good of the ccp.
That nationalistic bulls#t ideology is going to get you humilated and there will be no one to blame but yourself.
Deng did that because of the demand from the old communits revolutionaries who didn't trust the young leadership. Five months after the Tiananmen inccident Deng relived himself of the post, which implied that the president must also be the supreme commander of PLA. Since Jiang couldn't even place his men in the new leadership, I don't think he can keep the military post.
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They heard too much propaganda and not enough truth about what really happened in history. They don't learn what the British were thinking when they attacked. They don't learn about what the Taiwanese believe in. They don't learn about American thought.
The only thought that counts is what the ccp says is right. When you start looking at things honestly, with facts, and from BOTH sides of the ball, then you will finally realize how stupid China looks on the world stage.
No one except the CCP and some of its ardent followers believe the CCP's version of history. No one believes in the political beliefs.
The more you talk the way you do, Lake, the more foolish you look.
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No one said it will be easy. It might not be Jiang who does anything.
The masses are ignorant and uneducated. Thats the problem. If you have a white face, they don't care...you are bad or some 'invader'. They don't want to think, or reason, or find out why, they just want to act out or cause trouble.
They have not learned the European side, the Australian side, the American side, the Canadian side, the Taiwanese side, or anyone else's side of the arguments; yet they KNOW they are 100% right all the time. And if you don't believe that they are 100% right all the time too then you are 'anti-China'.
An uneducated activist who won't look at things objectively and try to really learn and understand, but rather opts for violent protest is dangerous.
THAT is China's problem. And there are people who exploit that...
Well, they ARE educated. Many of them were even educated in the US, like the authors of "China can say no".
>>They don't learn what the British were thinking when they attacked.
The British certainly don't know what the Chinese were thinking when they forced China to signed the unequal treaties after the Opium War.
>>you will finally realize how stupid China looks on the world stage.
Jiang is being criticized for that by both leftists and rightists.
As far as change going on right now... I don't know... There is definately a power/ideology struggle going on for sure. This week it appears one way, but next month who knows. In government time, 10 or 20 years is fast. So in other words when you say 'right now' do you mean 'right now as in today' or 'right now as in this era'? I think today might be silent, but this era is full of a big power struggle.
Apparently they had enough people aligned to bring up the whole 'capitalist in the party' thing, but IMO the other side started to take their perverbial guns out and literally threatened to cause problems...
So the idea was shelved.
I don't think it has gone away, it is just that timing is everything. Plus in China, open change makes people nervous. A case of cold feet is what I think it is...
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