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To: Trust but Verify
I don't beleive he has any of this stuff. If he did, why would he be trying to build nuclear weapons? Why go to all that trouble if you have ready-made ones?

I agree. Plus, why fly planes into WTC when you have nukes already. Why not just set all 20 off at once on 20 different cities. No way does he have 'em, or else he would've already used 'em by now.

148 posted on 11/18/2001 4:37:50 PM PST by Migraine
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To: Migraine
"I agree. Plus, why fly planes into WTC when you have nukes already. Why not just set all 20 off at once on 20 different cities. No way does he have 'em, or else he would've already used 'em by now."

How is it that the people who are so confident in their ability to predict his moves now weren't able to predict his moves before 9/11?

I'm sorry, folks, but this strikes me as little more than whistling in the dark. Trying to predict the moves of a madman is generally conceded to be an exercise in futility. Trying to apply Western thought to a middle eastern madman is even more futile.

The guy is unpredictable. Part of being unpredictable is the practice of doing the unexpected. Part of doing the unexpected is the practice of doing things that someone who analyzes the situation would conclude to be NWIH events.

I've seen countless people assert that "if he had them, he would have used them by now". Well, I'm sorry, but that assumption holds no water. Even normal countries and militaries don't behave that way. Terrorists are insidious. And, they tend to up the ante as they go. It's real hard to up the ante if you start out with your big guns.

Then, there are other questions, like for instance, what if he had them, but didn't have the codes, or the tritium, or some other critical component before 9/11, but does have them now?

There are so many variables, so unknowns, and so much element of the unpredictable that the only logical conclusion one can draw is that anyone who boasts of his confidence that "it can't happen" really is just whistling in the dark.

Whistling in the dark has a noted tradition of providing a measure of comfort to the whistler. But, that comfort is one based not on reality, but on "fantasy management". If one whistles in the dark, and nothing untoward happens, the result is no more a product of the effort than the famous "babies and storks" statistical example. Coincidence is not evidence of causation.

Anyway, my point is that we don't know if OBL has nukes, but there is a growing body of evidence that suggests that it is entirely possible that he does. And, the evidence is coming from multiple unrelated directions. If he has them, and if they are in working condition, then it remains to be seen when and if he will use them. And no amount of armchair psychoanalysis of the middle eastern madman will produce a reliable prediction of his actions, other than by coincidence.

178 posted on 11/18/2001 6:10:03 PM PST by Don Joe
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