Posted on 11/12/2001 5:48:58 AM PST by NC Conservative
I like your idea about putting bin-Laden in-between two of these pictures! Maybe with crosshairs across his ugly mug, eh?Here's the one I was talkin' about! !:
And we need to have plans to place organized/strong governmental control over the country. Perhaps this is a piece of the solution that's not quite ready yet.
Can we be assured that the Northern Alliance can hold Kabul? And why would we want the NA to go into Kabul uncontested/unaccompanied? Surely the NA is not the best pick for a new government. That would be swapping one type of tyranny with another.
Good thought. I don't think that the Pakistanis can be considered neutral. Uzbeks?
Turks and Indians would be much more interesting. But the Indians -- besides not being muslim -- would also not be considered neutral. Jordanians?
I believe that's a burr in my spur. Or is it a thorn in my saddle? I don't know. Forget it.
The media has a yen for creating controversies (at least for republicans). They doubt sound strategies. They doubt people of integrity that are making the tough decisions. When they want commentary they give the floor to the opportunists (read McVain and Bitten) and the perennially misguided (read most democrats). Like you I am not surprised at all by our successes in Afghanistan. As you said, GW spelled it out almost 2 months ago and guess what, it is working. Surprise, surprise!
Ruger makes a fine firearm.
This does seem to be an unexpected problem, doesn't it? The Taliban collapsed in the North far too quickly. They still hold the South, so the Pashtun aren't likely to agree to a unified gov't yet. And if there isn't a unified gov't, there's just oppression and killing from the other side (like we managed to acomplish in Kosovo)
The measure of success for Bush and his coalition now is not whether they can get rid of bin Laden and the Taliban, but whether they can install an Afghani gov't that has a chance of succeeding. That's been moving slower than the military action, but it must proceed with haste now!
The overall military strategy designed to drive the Soviets out was the classic guerrila one of death by a thousand cuts. General Akhtar never once sought to confront the enemy in a large scale conventional battle. He appreciated that ambushes, assassinations, attack on supply convoys, bridges, pipelines, and airfields, with the avoidance of setpiece battles was the way to win the war. At the start emphasis was placed on the need to strengthen the Mujahideen along with Durand Line (Pak-Afghan border). This was partly a necessity for the Mujahideen for the easy distribution of supplies, and partly for the security of the Pakistan frontier region, which was slowly built up into the guerrila's main base of supply area. As the war progressed, and the logistic flow increased, so activities deeper inside Afghanistan were stepped up until active operations were being conducted in all 29 provinces.[ Brigadier (Retd.) Mohammad Yousaf, S.Bt.,SILENT SOLDIER: The Man behind the Afghan Jehad,1991] from here
Well, the Taliban are not going to fight a frontal war. They're more likely to break up into smaller guerilla units and try to harass U.S. forces on the ground, and also continue fighting the united front. I think the large Taliban units that still remain on the ground will soon break up, partly because of U.S. bombing, and partly because they'll adopt new tactics to resist the U.S. Special Forces that we hear have already been inducted into Afghanistan.[October 20, 2001]Ahmed Rashid, Author of "Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia." As a correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review, Rashid has spent 20 years traveling with the Taliban and covering civil war in Afghanistan. from here
I know that our analysts are most certainly considering these possibilities, but we ought not to get too cocky about "driving out the Taliban." They may just be trying to reposition themselves for a different kind of war. The kind the Soviets found themselves in. The kind we don't want to have to fight. Once they fade into the shadows and begin fighting us as guerillas, hit and run style, it'll be a whole new ballgame. We need to destroy them completely, we need to destroy them now, before we find ourselves with base camps in Afghanistan, riding patrols, trying to install a government, while the Taliban bites our ankles on a daily basis.
As for a Taliban guerrilla war, I believe logistical support of a local population is essential to conducting successful guerrilla operations. The Mujahideen had that in their favor when they were fighting the Soviets, a foreign invader. In this case however, the Taliban will likely be looked upon as the oppressive foreign invader, partly because of its Pakistani and Saudi influences, and because of atrocities perpetrated on Afghan nationals while they held power. The Northern Alliance will likely be perceived as liberators and so will enjoy the support of the people. This could make it very difficult for the Taliban to continue operating as any more than a terrorist threat within Afghanistan. Although a terrorist threat is a serious problem, its small compared to well organized guerrilla armys roaming the countryside like the Soviets faced.
If the Taliban fade into the population, especially where they have support, across the border as well as at home, they may be difficult to root out. Also, they could receive support from the Pakistan side. The border is porous and corruption is rampant. There is already a vibrant underground economy in that region of Pakistan. then it would be up to Musharref to try to work his side of the border, while not inciting civil war. It would be a tricky situation. The map, below, shows (in blue) the Pashtun dominated region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. the red line, in the middle, is the A/P border.
As to the Pakistani problem; lets hope their president retains control. He seams intent on keeping us as an ally and may exert the pressure needed to keep things cool on the border. Though, it goes without saying, I wouldnt trust anyone over there further than I could throw him.
Great picture MeeknMing, I love it!
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