yes, I think this is exactly correct.
Remember the scene in "Godfather" when Don Corleone tells his colleagues, "I am a superstitious man...and if anything happens to my son Michael, even if he is hit by lightning, I will blame someone in this room"?
I don't know how much influence Assad, Hussein, Abdullah, Qadaffi, and Musharref have over OBL-but I suspect it is more than we know, or can know.
I would announce that, in the event of a nuclear or subnuclear detonation within the United States, the US will retaliate with our strategic forces immediately and without further investigation against "all states which sponsor or tolerate terrorism".
But then, I am a superstitious man.