[mrs9x]

I live in Charlottesville, and I think the problem for Warner is that he might have wider support than Earley (as indicated in the polls), but that support is much "softer" than the support for Earley. Most people I know who are voting for Earley know a lot about politics, hate dems, and would walk through a snake pit to vote for Earley. Warner's support, though, is more in the mushy middle. They only nominally follow politics, are swayed by sound bytes, but do not really care that much about which way the election goes. If these people stay home, look for an Earley win.

[cogitator]

Warner's support, though, is more in the mushy middle. They only nominally follow politics, are swayed by sound bytes, but do not really care that much about which way the election goes. If these people stay home, look for an Earley win.

Good points, and probably one of the reasons that Republicans outperform their poll numbers. The pollsters get "likely voters" on the basis of self-identification. When they ask Republicans, probably 95%+ of the "likely voters" vote. When they ask Democrats, it's probably 80% or so. When they ask independents, probably somewhat lower. So that weighs in the Republican favor. Two downers: good weather means less of an excuse to stay home, and Warner is supposedly pulling out every trick in the book to get his voters to the polls this time.

[cogitator]

Warner's support, though, is more in the mushy middle. They only nominally follow politics, are swayed by sound bytes, but do not really care that much about which way the election goes. If these people stay home, look for an Earley win.

Good points, and probably one of the reasons that Republicans outperform their poll numbers. The pollsters get "likely voters" on the basis of self-identification. When they ask Republicans, probably 95%+ of the "likely voters" vote. When they ask Democrats, it's probably 80% or so. When they ask independents, probably somewhat lower. So that weighs in the Republican favor. Two downers: good weather means less of an excuse to stay home, and Warner is supposedly pulling out every trick in the book to get his voters to the polls this time.

[rwt60]

I live in Albemarle County , next door to the PRC (Charlottesville) and I just voted. It was lunch time and I was the only person voting. I think I may have chosen the next governor since no one else was out there.