[ChemistCat]

"Authorities will act quickly to isolate and treat those with symptoms, and any outbreak will not be widespread. You can see a great model for this in how outbreaks of Ebola are handled. They're quickly isolated and the transferrence does not go far. "

This works FINE for natural outbreaks of disease in not-so-mobile societies. A society like ours with an extremely mobile population has never before been hit with a DELIBERATE and INFECTIOUS bioagent. Anthrax and Ebola simply are not comparable models, anthrax because while it was deliberately introduced into our society it is not contagious, and ebola because it has never been introduced into a culture with interstates and dozens of busy airports.

You are more optimistic than I am both about how a bioattack may be launched and how our government can distribute smallpox vaccine. They have a lot of agents here. Anthrax, in my opinion, has never been a serious attack--it was just a test of American resolve ("will they nuke us if we use bioagents? maybe not if we do it incrementally.")

[John Jorsett]

This works FINE for natural outbreaks of disease in not-so-mobile societies. A society like ours with an extremely mobile population has never before been hit with a DELIBERATE and INFECTIOUS bioagent. Anthrax and Ebola simply are not comparable models, anthrax because while it was deliberately introduced into our society it is not contagious, and ebola because it has never been introduced into a culture with interstates and dozens of busy airports.

I wasn't suggesting that Ebola is going to be employed here, I was using it as an example of how outbreaks of infectious diseases are handled. Ebola is an unlikely threat due to the difficulties of making, transporting, and dispersing it. As I made clear, mobility isn't going to be an issue in smallpox, since those infected will become immobile before they're infectious. Terrorists may be able to infect a number of people somehow, but it won't go much beyond them if the authorities act as they should, isolating the victims, innoculating emergency response personnel and anyone else in the vicinity. They'll employ innoculation both in the danger zone and in 'rings' about it, much like a firebreak. They will probably limit travel in and out for those not immunized.

As much as a threat this is, I don't see it turning into a pandemic. At least, not with smallpox. For other diseases, I might have a different opinion.

[NetSurfer]

Statement for the Record by Richard Preston Before The Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism & Government Information and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

Chemical and Biological Weapons Threats to America: Are We Prepared?

This is from April, 1998. Contains information about blackpox. One section in particular caught my attention:

In a military release of smallpox, the victims would be receiving extremely high doses of smallpox, far higher than in a natural outbreak, and we can suspect that many of the victims would be developing blackpox and having smallpox bleedouts. Blackpox is even more contagious than so-called ordinary smallpox.

I know from our correspondence that you have also read Preston's fact-based novel The Cobra Event and wanted to mention it in this posting, in case there are other FReepers out there that might read this post and want to check it out. Also worth reading is The Demon In the Freezer, which discounts the notion that only the US and Russia have access to smallpox.