Posted on 11/03/2001 11:55:35 AM PST by butter pecan fan
FIRST DRAFT, 11/03/01 - SUBJECT TO REVISION.
On the morning of September 11, I was just getting ready to go in to work when the phone rang. It was one of our neighbors. "Did you know that two airplanes just flew into the World Trade Center in New York?"
No, we didn't. At the time, we didn't have our TV on. Neither did my wife's parents, who were doing repair work on a rental property and didn't hear the news until hours later.
In the days since then, I've pondered how I might set up a system to instantly alert myself if something really major and threatening should happen: a nuclear event, a mass aerial anthrax attack, a major dam attack or a coordinated series of bomb blasts in major cities. In such an event, immediate notification =could= make a life-or-death difference.
My first idea was to create a computer system which would periodically scan major news web sites for key phrases in the top news items (such as "nuclear plant"), and automatically trigger a phone call to my home, any time of day or night when such phrases were found. Doable, but there were three major drawbacks to such a plan. First, a lot of work to set up. More importantly, too much delay between the start of a major event, its appearance in the online major media, and the triggering of the phone call. And most importantly of all, too inaccurate. Who wants to be awakened at 3:30 a.m. by the news "More Troops to Protect Nuclear Plant"?
I would now like to propose an "instant alert system" for major threatening events which will overcome all three of those problems, a system which I'm tentatively calling "FReepAlert."
Here's an example of how FReepAlert could work:
4:36 a.m., Central Standard Time: A sleeping FReeper in Illinois is awakened by a phone call from her husband, an early-shift law-enforcement officer in Joliet. It appears that one of the region's nuclear power plants is under sudden and ferocious terrorist attack. Law enforcement and military units are en route.
4:38 a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" begins to activate the FReepAlert network by dialing the phone number of "2old2worry" in Philadelphia. At the same time, she boots up her computer and connects to an online police scanner.
4:39 a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" gives up on "2old2worry," who left less than 10 minutes ago for work and doesn't have a cell phone in his car. Undaunted, she dials the number of "HillaryforDogcatcher" in Los Angeles, and rouses her from a sound sleep. She also posts a brief message in the FreeRepublic "Breaking News" section: "SCANNER SAYS ILLINOIS NUCLEAR PLANT UNDER ATTACK."
4:43a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" hangs up the phone and, being close to the power plant, begins to prepare for possible evacuation. It is seven minutes since she received first notification of the event from her husband, and her job is essentially done. She has activated the network.
4:41 to 5:00 a.m: The initial chain set off by "BeenThereDoneThat" alerts 5 more people. Thirty-two early-bird FReepers spot the news online. Six of these, being close nuclear power plants of their own in other parts of the country, tune in to local police scanners. Three others are part of FReepAlert. All three of these activate different portions of the FReepAlert chain from that already activated by "BeenThereDoneThat."
5:02 a.m: A FReeper monitoring a police scanner in California picks up a report of a terrorist attack on a nuclear power plant there. He immediately posts the news online.
5:08 a.m.: People on the East Coast are starting to wake up, since it's just after 6:00 a.m. there. However, most have not turned on their TV, so they don't see CNN's brief initial report that a power plant in Illinois appears to be under attack. It is twenty-two minutes since BeenThereDoneThat received a phone call from her husband. More than 50 FReepers have received phone calls (only 3 of whom would've heard the news on CNN), and dozens more have already learned the news online. Several more FReepers spot the CNN news and activate other portions of the FReepAlert chain.
5:10 a.m.: Two minutes after the first news breaks on CNN, 150 FReepers learn the attack in Illinois has been successfully repulsed. At least 6 terrorists are dead, and 3 police officers have been killed or wounded.
By 5:16 a.m, just over 70% of FReepAlert chain members have now been informed, as opposed to only 6% of the American population. This ratio is the same for FReepers in the State of California, where it is 3:16 a.m. Several FReepAlert members in Southern California are preparing for possible evacuation should that become necessary.
Almost none of the State's non-FReepers residents are aware of the attack in their State, since 99% are asleep; and in any event, the news has yet to break on CNN. It will be hours before some of these learn what's going on. A few who don't hear for hours will be local FReepers; though not part of the FReepAlert chain.
5:18 a.m.: CNN reports that law enforcement officers appear to have the Illinois power plant situation "under control." Multiple units are in pursuit of several terrorists who are fleeing in a green minivan.
Meanwhile, eleven armed terrorists enter the restricted area of a nuclear power plant in California.
The network will basically be defined by three things: A) Alert Rules; B) the way the network is set up, and C)the Alert Procedures.
A) Alert Rules.
Clear rules must be established for what is and is not a FReepAlertable emergency. The key question is, "Does this information indicate there the likelihood of an immediate and serious threat to people in various parts of the country, or to large numbers of people (many hundreds, or thousands) in a single area?" Threats could be divided into "daytime" and "24-hour" categories, based on the seriousness, immediateness, prior knowledge and credibility of the news threat.
Examples:
|
Threat |
Seriousness | Immediacy | Prior Knowledge | Credibility | Alert Level |
|
With no prior warning, news comes from a Tennessee hospital of a *confirmed* case of smallpox. |
High |
Fairly low |
None |
High |
Daytime alert, since people may need to make preparations, and need to do so before a possible general public panic. |
|
News of a confirmed case of smallpox 24 hours after suspicions first reported. |
High |
Somewhat low |
24 hours |
High |
No alert needed, because of the 24 hours prior knowledge |
|
Suitcase nuke explodes in downtown Seattle at 2 a.m. |
Very high |
Very high, esp. with public panic |
None |
High |
24-hour alert. |
|
DEBKAfile reports hundreds of thousands of soldiers massing on the Russia-Afghanistan border. |
Moderate, for Americans |
Not terribly immediate |
None |
Very low, since DEBKAfile is not considered by most of us to be a credible source... also, there IS no Russia-Afghanistan border... :-) |
None. |
I would propose to list several such examples for FReepAlert members, representative of the kinds of scenarios most likely to occur, and include clear criteria for FReepAlert members to decide whether an unlisted threat is a 24-hour alert, daytime alert, or no alert. Only 24-hour alerts would be passed on between the hours of 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.
B) How the Network Will Be Set Up.
The network could be described as a chain, or perhaps more accurately, as a ring. The ring structure means that any major alert given should be able to travel the entire length of the chain and return home, at which point, of course, alert notification would end.
The chain would obviously be broken if a member is not able to reach the next member in line. However, as shown in the example we started with, there is an easy way around this.
Each member of the chain will possess contact information for the next 4 members in the chain. I won't bore you with the math, but if there's a two-thirds chance of getting straight through to any given member, then you stand a 98.8% chance of being able to immediately pass on an alert. On average, you would expect more than 50 links to be completed before the chain would break down. The reliability of the chain would be even stronger at night, when most people are home and reachable in a major emergency.
The daytime hours, are also the hours when FReepers will be more available to pay attention to the news. In reality, then, you wouldn't expect major portions of the chain to be broken for long, because someone somewhere in the next section after the break would pick up the news and restart the chain.
In fact, as explained in the example, in a major crisis several sections of the chain would go active all at once, with the chains of alert dying out when they hit a section where the news has already been heard.
There's also a way make the chain even more reliable (and blindingly fast) in the event of a major middle-of-the-night emergency (such as a nuclear reactor core meltdown). To do so, the FReepAlert "host" (probably me, but this could alternately be someone centrally associated with the FreeRepublic web site) would be notified as part of the first alert. The host would then activate several sections of the chain simultaneously simply by making 5 or 6 phone calls to people at different points in the chain. Using this method with the example scenario above, instead of "more than 50" FReepers already notified by phone by the time a major network first breaks the news, hundreds could already be aware of the situation.
To protect against potential abuse by telemarketer types, no member ( host excepted for reasons detailed below) would possess contact information for more than 4 other people. Any abusing telemarketer could be dropped from the chain upon complaint to the host. So too could a "Chicken Little" who needlessly and repetitively proclaims the sky is falling at 3 a.m., based on dubious reports.
The host would possess a more extensive list of contact information, for several reasons. One is the need, assuming the network reaches a reasonable size, to be able to activate several sections of the ring at once in a major crisis. Also, he would always need to know the latest members to join simply in order to complete the loop and make the network into a ring instead of a one-way chain. When a new member joined, the host would also need to send out the list of 4 contacts for that member.
The host, being located at the "seam" where the loop reconnects onto itself, would be the only member to have a list of contacts which would change when a new member joins. All other members would keep the same contact list for as long as they were part of FReepAlert, which makes the alert system stable and easy to use.
C) Alert Procedures.
I will need to work up a simple, clear draft list of alert procedures which each member will agree to. Briefly, you can get a rough idea of likely procedures from the examples above:
* keep your contact list in an appropriate, findable location or locations.
* if you become aware of a threat, assess its seriousness, immediateness and credibility, as well as how much people are already aware of it.
* if it looks like a major 24-hour alert, and it's the middle of the night, phone the host.
* contact the next person in the chain, and also post a message on FreeRepublic.
* if you can't contact the first person on your list, go to the next one, until you get through.
* once you've contacted the next person, that person will take over and call the next.
* if one of your contacts gets skipped over in the chain (for example, the first person wasn't home), then try to call that person or persons later, because the chain has moved on without them and they won't hear unless they hear from you.
* if you change your contact information or decide to drop out, let the host know so he can alert the 4 people behind you who have your information, and prevent future weaknesses in the chain.
I would propose to proceed by taking comments and input (NOT contact information!) at this time concerning the FReepAlert idea, its design and operation. Then this proposal will be edited based on some of that input, and clearer rules and procedures set out.
Once I have a sense that people are reasonably happy with the design of things, I would begin taking contact information for those who would like to participate.
FReepAlert can be set up as a functional network of practically any size, from two participants to thousands. In the event of a major crisis, terrorist or otherwise, FReepAlert could literally be a "life saver".
If enough people judge the post to be significant, perhaps it could even be upgraded to the Alert column/box, as the situation develops.
I always worry about Santa Barbara, however, ever since an incident back in the 70's when I met a UCSB student who was here on visa from Morocco and heavily involved in revolutionary activity and gun running. I learned that much later, of course. Any college town needs to be on alert for activities counter to the well-being of our nation. The cynical side of me wonders how many of them are provided cover by sympathetic professors and ignorant students anxious to support their cause. The person I refer to above was actually elected student body president! Hmmmm. Makes ya think. Gives me a friggen headache! :(
THERE WAS A RAWA SPEAKER AT THE UNIVERSITY A FEW DAYS AGO
(RAWAs are political leftist militant Afghan women and their friends.)
You are right in the middle of a hotbed of political activity!!
Here are some good links to RAWA photos and info....
BTW, last night I was listening to O'Reilly (just caught the tail end of a conversation). He was speaking with a guy who was the recipient of a whole lot of flack from a city council member who objected to him putting up a flag and leading the Pledge of Allegiance at a City meeting. Turned out to be in Santa Barbara!
Also, I want to add something about the incident back in the 70's. I was a mere ignorant then....had not yet, to my knowledge, reached the infidel title. However, these guys who were here on student visas, and their friends, were driving around in mazerattis and made a habit of frequenting bars, etc, and picking up on young girls. They would befriend them and offer them expense paid trips abroad to stay in villas in Morocco. No strings attached. I learned later that they would carry luggage that contained concealed weapons. I doubt whether anyone who chose to go on one of these jounts had a clue. My point is, however, that this has been going on for a long time, and we have been dupped into participation in ways we will never fully comprehend, imo.
The activities are fully and well concealed as our communities become infiltrated and "worked". Back in the 70's I was home one day minding my own business when this acquaintance came to the door and asked if I could keep a piano for him. I looked out and saw a piano on top of a convertible car! lol. I said I would do it because I loved pianos and did not have one. A couple months later I heard a knock on the door and the guy was back to collect the piano. It was loaded up on the top of another convertible car and they drove away. Later, when I learned from the news about some arrests in Europe, it dawned on me that the piano was probably concealing something....I have no clue what. I hardly knew these people and the behavior seemed odd to me, but I chalked it up to them just being from a different culture. We are raised in America to be tolerant and accepting. We don't think like some others do. Most of us don't have an imagination wild enough to understand or comprehend some of what goes on around us because it just wouldn't occur to us outside of a movie theater! It's time to wake up, America!
Hey, I saw that guy! He said “Channel 12” had video of the event, but I couldn’t find any Channel 12 in Santa Barbara. Do you have a local cable Channel 12?
Yes, don’t keep any pianos for anyone now.
I would give some serious consideration to a "phone tree" in each area code or geographical location, so the phone # actually appears (I have anonymous/unavailable caller ID block), to beat the incessant telemarketing calls.
If you don't have an ID, you don't get through. Having the call(s) originate in the area code of the FReeper would get around that.
This being said, I am 100% back of it, Live just outside Philly, PA, have a scanner and ham radio, among other things ;-).
Count me in on this and for development/implementation help if required.
Keep the Faith for Freedom
MAY GOD BLESS AND PROTECT THIS HONORABLE REPUBLIC
Greg
FReepAlert would be mostly telephone-based, for immediate, confirmed notification (important in knowing the chain will go on), but obviously if the forum is up it greatly strengthens communication, because people who've received an alert can log in and meet others who are also monitoring the situation.
One key element I didn't really cover yet is that contact information would include 2 or 3 different phone numbers in order of preference, and members would be asked to keep a copy of their contact list in their wallet, purse, car or some combination of the above as well as at home near their phone. Easily done, since contact list will be distributed by email - just print out 1 or 2 extra copies when you print the original, and stick one in your billfold, give one to the wife, etc.
A sample contact list might give:
first name of FReeper
home number (normal hours: 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 a.m.)
work number
cell phone number in case not reached at work or home.
With such a scheme, and so many who have cell phones, you can see why it's NOT a stretch to think FReepAlert members might be reachable at least 2/3rds of the time.
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