Our Galaxy Should Be Teeming With Civilizations, But Where Are They?

Project Phoenix ^ | 25 Oct 01 | Seth Shostak

[RightWhale]

It's sad to think that Humans might be the most advanced form of life in the galaxy...

At first it can be disheartening. But then a sense of optimism can come up, an understanding of a job that needs to be done. We could populate all that wasted space before the universe cools off much more. Of course ultimately even that will come to an end. Even stars go cold eventually. But we could have a busy and fun time for a couple million or billion years.

[PatrioticAmerican]

Where? Smart enough to stay the Hell away from here!

[Pres Raygun]

I heard the same type of arguments when I was in school for other solar systems. I had a prof who once told me we would never discover a solar system outside of our own. We see life in the most unusual places. Places we would die in seconds. This universe may be teeming with life that does not resemble us in the least. If they become tool builders the laws of physics dictates that RF is RF no matter who or what generates it.

Actually the authors of Rare Earth argue that simple life forms probably exist throughout the galaxy, but the probability of complex life existing anywhere in the galaxy other than on earth is extremely low. None of the discoveries of extra-solar planets made to date improve the probablitiy of complex extraterrestial life since all extra solar planets found so far are gas giants with either highly elliptical orbits or orbits in the habitable zone. Have you read Rare Earth?

[RadioAstronomer]

I read a recent article on SETI that suggested that the sun is actually at distance from the center of the galaxy that optimizes the chance of life. It went on to say that stars in the outer bounds of the MW are older and have the right mix of metals, carbon and the like to foster life. The implication was that other planets conductive to life are likely to be in or near our orbit around the nucleus of the MW. Another thing the article said was that the center of the MW is too active with young stars to hold life. Does that many any sense?

Yes and no. For our kind of life yes. Maybe for a different type completely unknown to us the center of the galaxy would be perfect. Who knows.

[Basilides]

Another explanation as to why we have not encountered any other civilizations, or why they have not spread out and eventually reached our neighborhood is simply that any civilization of sufficient advancement technologically will destroy itself before it can mature to the point that it has the unified agreement among its members to turn its collective energies to space exploration.

Why it destroys itself, or how, shouldn't be much of a stretch for us to imagine given the present course of events...

[clamper1797]

Our solar system is kinda out in the boonies (one of the spirals) in comparison to systems that are part of / or at least closer to the nucleus of the galaxy. If there are "other civilizations" ... there probably is a greater chance of finding one where the star density is greater. Unless of course that proximity to other stars exposes any pre-life molecules too a much higher radiation level which could preclude life .... as we know it. In which case ... if there is life out there ... it probably is so wildly different from ours, we may not even be able to see, hear, or otherwise detect their existence. And remember that man has only had the capability to communicate over light year distance for about 100 years (or less). That's 100 years out of 4.5 billion years of planet life. That is a pretty small window of opportunity. All we have to be is 100 years older than an other civilization and they can't hear us. All we have to be is 100 years younger than another not to hear them.

[Terriergal]

LOL!

[RadioAstronomer]

all extra solar planets found so far are gas giants with either highly elliptical orbits or orbits in the habitable zone

We are just starting to discover extra solar planets. I am not surprised at all that the giants are discovered first.

[Terriergal]

oooh! Ouch! But I hear ya!

[RadioAstronomer]

Why did you know that?

You found me out! ROFL!!!

[discostu]

I have heard that one. It's funny, those same people tend to wave God's omniscience around like a battle flag on other issues. But apparently, when it came to making life, God was the least successful experimenter ever known.

One thing I'd like to point out is SETI. A lot of people are talking about SETI's failure to find anything in 30 years. What most are forgetting is that SETI is only checking a very small percentage of the band width we know can function as carrier waves, only the bandwidth we actually use. Technically it's possible there could be a fairly advanced civilization on the "dark" side of the moon that's been there the whole time but doesn't use the same section of the carrier wave bandwidth we do. Much as I love the spirit of SETI it's actually not a very well designed experiment. There are only two ways SETI could ever prove anything conclusively: if they got a hit, or if they radically increased the scope of the experiment. Of course SETI already gets in more data than it can analyze in a reasonable amount of time, so increasing the scope would also increase the analytical delays. It's entirely possible SETI could realize it got a hit years ago but never analyzed that block.

[tortoise]

Every living thing in the entire universe is right here upon the Earth where God created it. Simple, is it not?

Apparently you didn't get the memo from God that stated the REAL situation with this. One has to wonder what you did to get bumped from the distribution list, if you were ever on it. But since you obviously weren't intended to be privy to the facts, I can't disclose any more. Sorry.

[W. W. SMITH]

you are right!! It is a IQ test and any others have allready flunked out. We seem to be well on our way to doing the same.

[RadioAstronomer]

only the bandwidth we actually use.

There is even a bigger problem than that. The galactic noise drowns out any possibility of getting a signal below 1Ghz and the Atmosphere above 10Ghz. So we are "stuck" between those two frequencies. A radio telescope on the far side on the moon would be ideal but I haven't the funds to put one there (at least this year LOL!)

[Timm]

Actually I don't think they (if they exist) even know we are here.

I'm one who thinks the misnamed "Fermi's Paradox" is a serious problem for the hypothesis that there are advanced extraterrestrial civilizations. (I say "misnamed" because the Fermi Question is not a paradox. It's a reductio argument against the view that advanced extraterrestrials exist.)

All it would take is one E.T. civilization in our galaxy to have reached technical sophistication several million years ago. This civilization could send little green explorers out in flying saucers, or build self-replicating robot probes. Either way, assuming the travelers only go v<.1c and supposing that it takes 100,000 years from the time the travelers arrive on the new world to the time a new robot or people vehicle is sent out (a very conservative estimate), the original civilization will have the entire galaxy populated in a little over ten million years.

Consider that the earth is about 4.5 billion years old, and the galaxy itself over ten billion years old. If, in fact, the conditions for the development of technical civilizations in our galaxy really are favorable enough for there to be some E.T.'s around sending radio broadcasts then why hasn't at least one flying saucer made its way to earth by now? Why isn't there at least one robot probe in our vicinity which has detected us?

I am skeptical of the premise of radio SETI, in other words. It's hard to understand the view that there are several advanced E.T. societies around transmitting messages of peace and good will but none have yet managed to show up in our neck of the woods in person or through their robot surrogates. I'm more willing to believe that we are the only technical civilization ever to exist in our galaxy than I am in that hypothesis.

[RadioAstronomer]

Apparently you didn't get the memo from God that stated the REAL situation with this. One has to wonder what you did to get bumped from the distribution list, if you were ever on it. But since you obviously weren't intended to be privy to the facts, I can't disclose any more. Sorry.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!

[sendtoscott]

Even from a strictly Christian perspective it's just plain unlikely that God would go through all the trouble of putting all that stuff out there and only put life on one out of the way rock.

Maybe, maybe not, but why would an omnipotent supreme being worry about 'wasted' effort?

[RightWhale]

So you do not believe earth micro organisms could survive in space for anything like the time it would take to reach another star system?

Sure I do. Microbial life is probably everywhere.

[boris]

"I postulate, we just haven't been found yet!"

Nope. There has been ample time, using a drunkard's walk, for every single star in the galaxy to have been visited multiple times. If there are several spacefaring societies, there should be a traffic jam.

Also we should observe their traffic--which we do not.

Finally, I commend the recent book Rare Earth to your attention.

--Boris