Why Hillary Can't win in 2004(Even before the bombing)...but John Edwards can.

Electoral College | Oct 21 | Dan from Michigan

[Dan from Michigan]

Dem leans - 206. Now to Hillary.

Could Hillary keep her base, and then take 64 votes?

In the Northeast, there are 25, Penn and NH.
In the South, there are 68, Florida, Tenn, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Arkansas
In the Midwest, there are 65, Ohio, Mich, Iowa, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri,
In the West, there are 29, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, New Mex.

I think Hillary would have trouble taking ANY of those states.

Now Edwards? That's a different story.

[fire and forget]

Thanks for the analysis. It's a keeper.

[SamAdams76]

Good analysis but you give Hillary too much credit. I doubt she can win any states outside of the liberal Northeast.

She barely won the senate seat in New York despite the fact that it was being vacated by a fellow Democrat and her GOP challenger (Rick Lazio) was a virtual unknown who entered the race very late in the game, after Giuliani dropped out. Giuliani would have creamed her had he stayed in the race. But destiny had a different fate in mind for Giuliani. He was meant to be mayor of NYC at this time.

Based on the reaction Hillary got last night (from an audience of city workers), Hillary wouldn't get elected for any public office in new New York today.

[PhiKapMom]

You left our the solid Middle of America -- Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota! Are you saying that we are already in the win column for GW (which we are)? Couldn't help myself!

Believe that ms. clinton will never allow Edwards to get the nomination in 2004 because that would block her for 2008! Just my opinion. I expect Sen Kerry of MA to be their nominee!

[Miss Marple]

Barring my preferred method of defeating Edwards, which is sending a Special Ops person to his home to replace his shampoo with Nair, there is another thing I am thinking.

I think that it is quite possible that he is the person who leaked information about the war to the Washington Post. He is on the intelligence committee, and right before this happened he was all over the television posing as an "expert" on intelligence. Now he has disappeared. I also note that Senator Bayh backed President Bush on his clamping down on information (this was in The Indianapolis Star today.) Bayh is also a rival of Edwards. Ha!

IF we can somehow show that Edwards is an opportunist (which he is) and is careless wih secrets, he can be negated. Then we will have to worry about Bayh.

[RightOnline]

Edwards is an empty suit; another Clinton (with a bit more character.........but still a moron). He's a trial lawyer, folks. His beliefs are full-on Socialist, Big-Government, Tax 'Em Till They Bleed, elitist crap. It's to our eternal shame that North Carolina sent this blow-dried twit to Washington. He won for one reason and one reason only..........and it's the ONLY reason his name is being floated about for the likes of Gore's VP or future Prez candidate: he's telegenic. Whoopty-s**t, right? Well.........believe it. 'Tis the era, folks. That's all it takes.

I pray to GOD that the US has wised up (especially since Clinton) to phony little preening pricks like Edwards.

[KQQL]

If Hillary runs, she will run with Eddy Edwards.
Eddy Edwards is Clintons friend and he can win few southern states for the RAts if W is in pits by 2004.e,g

N.C, TN, AK, VA( If Warner wins, this will be a battle ground), LA, and WV.

[Junior_G]

Isn't John Edwards that fraud that says he talks to dead people?

[GraniteStateConservative]

The one problem is that Edwards will be running against Bush during wartime and he has no experience to assume the "leader of the free world" role.

I think he's a viable VP candidate, though.

Of course, a lot will depend on how beatable Bush looks in November of 2003. If he looks like a lock, they might run Gore just to totally flush him down the toilet. That way he would have lost 2 elections and the Democrats would be free to run whomever they want in 2008 without any ghosts of Gore.

I think a dark horse is Joe Biden. His chances are hurt some if the GOP takes the Senate in 2002, but he has mucho seniority in the Senate (he was elected in 1972) regardless. He also was hurt by the plagiarism, but I don't know if anyone will remember or care about it.

John Kerry is the most out-in-the-open candidate, but the Dems have to win a Southern state, and I don't see how he could do that.

Another interesting thing is that Bush has the option of picking a new VP in 2004. It would not be surprising or shocking for Cheney to retire (as it would have been for Bush I to drop Quayle in 1992-- as was discussed some). That gives Bush the chance to totally neutralize the "we want change" independents in 2004. There are people that just like change and would gravitate (even if it's just a flirtation) to the party out of power. They like the excitement of it being "new." Bush could steal that thunder with a new VP (especially if he picked someone like Rice). If this occurs, electoral projections can really change.

[Dan from Michigan]

That's where the IF comes in. Hillary can't take any swing states, and would probably lose West VA. Illinois and Minnesota would be tough for Hillary, despite being originally from Illinois. Oregon and Wash St would be toss ups for here, but I think Kalifornia would go to Hillary.

[Dan from Michigan]

John Kerry(Not Bob for those that get confused) is tough to figure out. He's a Nam Vet, but also a 'piecenik'. He's also from Mass, and that's usually a negative to the Midwest and South.

If Kerry is it, I don't know what to expect.

My money is still on Roy Barnes, Georgia Governor. Governors become presidents.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Hillary got 3.44M votes and Gore got 3.77M votes. That's a really big difference. That means she did 91% as well as Gore. If you extend that nationally, she only wins 45.5% of the national popular vote-- which gives Bush a serious landslide.

[deport]

Dan thanks for the details and I hope your logic is correct. But I believe that what we will see in 2004 will be very different than what we have today. I think the economy is going to be a major player and of course this "terrorist" thing is far from over. Thus I believe the dynamics will be very different and the players at the fore front may be entirely different.

[Dan from Michigan]

Bayh is one scary SOB. He's an ex governor, an empty suit, and can win Indiana of all places. Bayh will sell in Michigan and Ohio.

Edwards I think will run. He'll have a tough re-election in NC, and I think may have an easier time running for the presidency, and running for senate.

I just hope Edwards fouls up.

[deport]

You saying fast Eddy will win his appeal and thus not be serving time in prison?

[jackbill]

On the same note, Edwards can do it.

How many people in this country would vote for a guy with a wart on his lip?

[Dan from Michigan]

I think it's more than. If I remember right, Lauch Faircloth PO'ed the gun owners there, and dodged debates making himself look like a coward, and despite it all, it was a nailbiter.

I hope you have some up and coming GOP'ers in NC. Edwards needs to be taken out.

These Empty suit, TRIAL LAWYER, slick haired, and fast talking RICH DLC Democraps REALLY PO me. I'll take 100 Boniors over 1 Edwards or 1 Waxman.

[Dan from Michigan]

Too many people would. Too many idiots would fall in love with his hair.

[RightOnline]

Let's just say that Faircloth could write a book on how not to run a campaign; a theme that could serve many, many Republicans considering taking up writing for extra income. Edwards was slick; Faircloth came off (as you said) as evasive.........hell, damned near invisible. However, trust me when I tell you that Edwards won because of his ads; his appearance on the Boob Tube. The camera likes 'im.........but it wasn't kind to Faircloth. Now, Faircloth was no prize......but he was infinitely preferrable to a sleazy schmuck like Edwards.

Never overestimate the intelligence of the public, as a man far wiser than me once pointed out.

[PhiKapMom]

Looks to me they are in the same position we were in 1996 -- not very attractive candidates with a lot of experience. I would guarantee that Kerry couldn't win in the general election, but the way the RATS do their convention and primaries, he would win if the clintons got behind him. Never even thought of the GA Governor. Should be an interesting primary as the clintons try to leave the door open for her in 2008!

BTW I don't understand Kerry either!