The Hill Face to Face: Interview with Debka.com

The Hill ^ | 10/10/2001 03:00 PM | David Silverberg

[captain11]

Face to Face 10/10/2001 03:00 PM
Debka.com
Participants:
Giora Shamis Chief Editor of Debka.com and a former reporter for The Economist.
Diane Shalem English Editor of Debka.com and a former reporter for The Economist.
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The Hill: Hello, I'm David Silverberg, Managing Editor of The Hill and today I'd like to welcome Giora Shamis and Debra Shalem of Debka.com for a half hour online chat -- our first international chat, since both are coming to us from their offices in Israel. Debka.com is a remarkable site with fascinating information about the Middle East and current operations, but none of it is sourced and it's certainly not verifiable by most readers. So to both of you: Why should we believe what you post to Debka.com? Giora Shamis: A. there is no compulsion to believe us - but if you are really curious about what is going on today, pick one or two items on our site and check them out over a period of time. AT the end of that process, you will either confirm our stories for yourselves - examples the rift in the Saudi royal house, the growing military tension on the Chinese-Afghan border, or as happens quite often lately, the big guys follow in our wake-sometimes with a different slant.
The Hill: What are your criteria for posting information to your site? How do you check up on sources? Giora Shamis: Most of our sources are active in the field -not official spokesmen. Because our network is broad, we crosscheck as exhaustively as possible and don't run a story until we are sure of its veracity. Of course, like anyone, we make mistakes.
The Hill: Obviously, with the kind of information you deal with, you'll be used by various parties for their own ends. How do we know you're not just recycling Mossad disinformation? Or anyone's disinformation, for that matter? Giora Shamis: Counter-question: Why are we always asked if we serve the Mossad? We serve no -one. We are an extremely independent organizatin and believe in giving the facts as hard as they come to the reader/viewer, treating him or her as though we are addressing the real decision makers.
The Hill: You've just reported that the Chinese have gone to full war status. Do you think there will be a direct conflict between the United States and China? Giora Shamis: No. We don't think so. But there is growing military tension because the Chinese feel encircled by the US-Russian and allied action in Afghanistan. It is also opportunistic. With the West pitted against Islam Beijing sees its chance of profiting on both sides before the conflict is over.
The Hill: You've said in a previous newspaper interview that you were asked not to run with some of the information you have. This request came from an American official, I believe. Have you had any other requests to hold back information? Giora Shamis: Not yet.
The Hill: Can you tell us something about your backgrounds in intelligence and foreign affairs reporting? Giora Shamis: Giora Shamis was chief foreign correspondent of the Foreign Report when it was run by The Economist, London. He covered most of the intelligence news of the Cold War. He also covered eight wars. Diane Shalem as radio correspondent, news editor and The Economist correspondent covered and wrote about five wars and the intelligence activity entailed.
The Hill: You've talked about your reporting successes, are there any leads that didn't work out? Giora Shamis: Yes, some. We never got to the true story of Jonathan Pollard. We can reach no conclusions about that affair based on the material available. We have still not got to the bottom of Israel's withdrawal from S. Lebanon last year. We don't know the real reason for that decision.
The Hill: Given your knowledge of the area and events, what outcome do you project in the current crisis? Giora Shamis: That depends on the duration of the US offensive in Afghanistan, its outcome,what happens to Pakistan and the Moslem republics of Central Asia. In the first stage, the outcome will be unclear, followed by a lull and then a resumption of hostilities, whose scale will depend on the scope of terrorist activity and the opening of new warfronts in the Balkans and Central Asia.
The Hill: As Israelis, what advice do you have for Americans who are experiencing the fear and uncertainty of homeland terrorism for the first time? How does one cope psychologically? Giora Shamis: That's a hard question. It is necessary to strengthen inner unity, starting with the family and community - which will happen inevitably in a healthy society. The president's campaign to build up the homeland front is the best way to go but it is a long and painful process. The big problem to overcome is fear and expert counselling on this is extremely helpful.
The Hill: In your reporting -- and here in the States, for that matter -- we're beginning to see greater focus on an emerging US-Russian alliance. Can you elaborate on that? How enduring do you expect this to be? How deep do you think it will it go? Giora Shamis: It will go very deep. Putin is very keen and believes it is the best way to rebuild Russsia's economy. One of the keys to winning the war against terror, as the President reiterates,is choking off the flow of illicit funding to terror. If the US and Russian join forces in this, for the first time in a decade, there is a good chance of the central government in Moscow regaining control of the movement of money in the country which is at present out of its control.
The Hill: Is Debka.com self-supporting? Where do you get your funding? Giora Shamis: Debka was started as a self-supporting venture with the private funds of the founding journalists. As it gained a circulation, it established a weekly electronic letter focused on intelligence and world conflicts called DEBKA-Net-Weekly which is growing fast. We also provide a customized service for individuals and corporations at special rates. The revenues cover Debka's modest outlay.
The Hill: Going back through history, one sees some parallels here to the start of the Thirty Years War, where a single act -- the Defenestration of Prague -- led to a religious conflict that drew in big powers and dragged out for 30 years. Do you think we're on the verge of that now, especially with Russia and China appearing to get involved? Giora Shamis: Yes. The danger of this is considerable. A pact between Russia and the US does not preclude unpredictable military and other crises. The Chinese factor needs watching. And the internal instability of MOslem countries could cause sudden convulsions.
The Hill: Given your backgrounds in war and intelligence coverage, how do you rate current American operations in terms of effectiveness, knowledge and likely success? Giora Shamis: The organization of military strength on this present scale is impressive. It will face its ordeal by fire when intelligence and ground forces go into action. This has not yet happened. So it is early days.
The Hill: You've reported on rifts in the Saudi royal family over allowing US operations on Saudi soil. By the time the operation is finished -- whenever that is -- will we see all the current Arab regimes still in power? Giora Shamis: Probably not. The dilemma of the Arab rulers is finding a balance between the need to build a modern state and he pressures of religious forces who oppose Western culture an values. In Saudi Arabia, some of the princes will remain in power; but factions of the royal family will be ousted. This will be the first time that a feud in the royal house will prove to be incurable.
The Hill: Will Arafat be overthrown for trying to suppress pro-bin Laden sentiment? Giora Shamis: He'll suppress it and won't shrink from harsh measures. He will live on for a time.
The Hill: Can Musharref survive? Giora Shamis: That is very chancy. He faces formidable difficulties and his regime is showing cracks.
The Hill: In reference to your previous answer: You spoke about new warfronts in the Balkans and Central Asia. Where? Bosnia? And what form are these new fronts likely to take? Giora Shamis: Bosnia, Kosovo,Bulgaria, Macedonia- all are possible warfronts. Either by means of prolonged terror wars like the one waged by the Palestinians, or clashes between local paramilitary forces or militias. The biggest danger is of the various factions merging into a regular army and eying West European countries. In Central Asia, we could see internal strife, but an Islamic revolution or coup in any of those republics could prompt war among them. In this region, we can't rule out intervention by Turkey, on the one hand, or Iran, on the other.
The Hill: What prompted you to start Debka? Giora Shamis: Two reasons: In 1999,we saw terror troubles on the horizon and we figured they would get worse before they got better. Then, we felt very much at ease in the Internet medium and believe that this is the best and most effective form of journalism today and the most direct way of communicating with an audience.
The Hill: The $64 billion question: Can the Northern Alliance overthrow the Taliban? Giora Shamis: No way, without subtantial help.
The Hill: What are the key indicators in the current crisis that we should be looking for? Giora Shamis: Signs of cracks in the Bin Laden-Taliban front or their modes of operation that betray their intentions - the same with the other parties involved.
The Hill: Does US-Russian cooperation give Russia a free hand in Chechnya? Giora Shamis: Yes - in the framework of the understandings between Bush and Putin.
The Hill: This is probably the question that President Bush is demanding of his intelligence and security chiefs right now: Will the United States experience more terrorism? Giora Shamis: Probably yes.
The Hill: Please give us two scenarios: 1) The United States achieves all its objectives. What does the Middle East and Central Asia look like as a result. 2) Osama bin Laden eludes capture and achieves his objectives. What does the world look like as a result? Giora Shamis: 1) This is unlikely - and we don't think the United States expects even to achieve all its objectives. 2) Put that in the past tense. So far, Bin Laden has achieved his objectives and eluded capture. This situation may be expected to go on for some months. The world therefore looks like a world at war.
The Hill: We have come to the end of our allotted time. Thank you both for your participation. Would you please give us a closing statement? Giora Shamis: We both thank you for the great honor of interviewing us in this very special way, which we enjoyed. We appreciate you very interesting and challenging questions and hope our answers made some small contribution to our mutual understanding of a very complicated situation. We believe that America's decision to go to war against terrorism is extremely courageous and one that will shape world history in the next quarter century. thank you very much for inviting us. Giora Shamis Diane Shalem

[captain11]

On the Oct 8, 2001 FR thread "Who runs the Debka myth mill?", valhallasone poses legitimate questions about DEBKA. At a minimum, DEBKA elicits a range of FR opinion. This Oct 10, 2001 interview provides the best background I've seen to date.

[spycatcher]

Thanks for the info, Dekba gets slammed hard round here. Maybe we ought to give them a chance to report on the anti-terror war and see how they do.

I think they were the first to report the Saudi Royals bolting their own country

[Always Right]

I think they were the first to report the Saudi Royals bolting their own country

Debka is the first to report a lot of things, unfortunately most of it doesn't turn out to be true.

[captain11]

I've given them a hard time myself--their "above the fold" Web formatting certainly leaves something to be desired. IMHO, the problem with DEBKA is that their overall signal-to-noise ratio seems low. In their defense, I'd say some of that derives from being well ahead of the pack, which naturally leads to more mistakes, plus they're a small operation. My sense is they're worth following and more legit than the current FR consensus, though caution is definitely necessary. There are multiple attributes to any news source, and DEBKA seems to trade timeliness and uniqueness for somewhat less reliable information. It's a lot easier to get it right when you're the 1,014th to report it.

[WaterDragon]

I've only been stopping in to check out Debka.com for a couple of weeks. It's an interesting site. Let's wait and see if it gets things right as often as Drudge.

[Don Joe]

If nothing else, this raises questions about the agenda of whoever it was that started the rumor that Debka was run by two teenagers.

[spycatcher]

Yeah, they could actually use two teenagers to redesign their website. At least the front page headlines!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Just checking on Debka.