With all due respect, this is nonsense. The liberal domination of the media, coupled with the propaganda machine of the Democrats in Congress, will GUARANTEE that prevailing public opinion will blame Bush and the Republicans for ANYTHING negative that happens to the economy prior to the upcoming election.
If you'll recall, Bush the Elder went down in flames over a minor, transient downturn in the economy that was corrected well before the election. Not only did the media refuse to report the improving economy, but they trumpeted Clinton's lie that it was "the worst economy in years". Enough people bought this propaganda that Bush was toast. It could happen again quite easily.