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You're usually a good judge of regional politics. Do you think Reno will be a tough opponent.

Right now, I predict 50%-48% Jeb over Reno.

I would think Reno is very vulnerable in Florida although there are enough left wing wackos in S. Fla. that anything is possible.

Everyone is saying that Miller is a shoo-in for the special election, but I am beginning to worry a bit.

There are a lot of yellow dog democrats in this area who are conservative yet still vote democratic because grandpa did. I have noticed there are probably 50 Briese (however you spell his name) signs up in this area for every Miller one. I have also noticed a few Miller signs have disappeared.

I would be surprised the demoncrats are spending this much money unless they smell a possible victory. Possibly they plan a secret "get out the vote" plan since this election is not being publicised.

Unless the economy sucks, incumbent governors have a huge advantage absent their demonstrably screwing up. You need to factor that in. Jeb will win by 10% or so against Reno is my guess absent Reno finding some galvinizing issue. And the last election or affirmative action won't be it.