Global Recession Near, Some Economists Say

Washington Post ^ | September 26, 2001 | Steve Perlstein

[liberallarry]

".....There is little doubt that the scale of the destruction of economic value, combined with the loss of confidence, will precipitate one of the most severe global recessions in recent memory," declared David Folkerts-Landau, head of global markets research at Deutsche Bank, adding that only an unprecedented effort by industrialized countries to stimulate their economies could avert such a downturn."

[justshutupandtakeit]

There are no quotes from University of Chicago economists so this article can safely be ignored. Though it is POSSIBLE that even non UC economists can't miss on this one.

[liberallarry]

Is your moniker your answer? I had hoped for slightly better proposed solutions.

[razorback-bert]

It also needs to be able to reach - 90% of the population.

That would require the mileage of the

Interstate System

Mileage	Description
42,794.49	Includes original mileage authorized by former 23 USC 103(e)(1), Howard-Cramer additions authorized by former 23 USC 103(e)(2), and 1,500 additional miles authorized by former 23 USC 103(e)(3). This mileage includes toll roads and certain free roads incorporated into the Interstate System.
2,108.33	Mileage added to the System under former 23 USC 139(a) without Federal Interstate Construction funding.
12.00	Mileage added to the System under new 23 USC 103(c)(4)(A) without Federal Interstate Construction funding.
109.70	Mileage added to the System under Section 1105(c)(5) of the ISTEA, as amended, without Federal Interstate Construction funding.
--------------
45,024.52	Total Miles

[FightThePower!]

Why is it highly unlikely that we fall into a depression? Just look at the debt most people are in. In 1929 the average person owned 50% of his house and had no credit card debt. Now, the average family has $7,000 credit card debt and only owns 30% of thier house. If we see mass layoffs, who will be able to keep up their debt payments?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Give me a question and I'll give you an answer.

So far I have merely pointed out that the enormous costs of the Clintons has just started to be tallied.

With the liars in the media temporarily in retreat they are unable to hide the security destruction which allows terrorists free reign within the country.

In 1996 (so that they would be able to vote in the elections) O'bubba Ben Lying forced the naturalization of 251,000 new citizens who either had arrest records, unclassified fingerprints never resubmitted, or never submitted any fingerprints at all. All this OF COURSE was in violation of immigration law.

Random checks of those with criminal records showed that by two years later 20% had been arrested in this country for serious crimes. Thus, the Clinton criminal recruitment machine allowed thousands of criminals in to prey upon the Sheeple.

How many murders, rapes, armed robberies, assaults, manslaughters, burglaries are attributable to Clinton's assault upon the Laws? The costs of dealing with Clinton's Criminal Allies and Friends from just this enormity are in the Billions.

This is the Legacy of the worst president in American history and its relation to the WTC attacks has yet to be explored.

[liberallarry]

IMF slashes forecast for world economic growth. Another related article, this time from the Financial Times (England).

[liberallarry]

"....only an unprecedented effort by industrialized countries to stimulate their economies could avert such a downturn."

What sort of stimulus, if any, is likely to work? Is it needed? Do you agree or disagree with ANYTHING in the 3 articles?

[Benrand]

I'm sure Paul Krugman thinks so...but seriously, the lubrication that easy international passage gives markets is going to be affected. Inflation could be on the horizon. I wonder how this is affecting trade routes. We will always find ways to move product, but there will be some friction, IMO.

Plus, we're at war.

[justshutupandtakeit]

I am more in favor of tax cuts and interest rate reductions than increasing government expenditures. Though we will have little choice about increasing military expenditures.

Regulatory reforms, reducing the number of laws, reducing the bureaucratic burden is also important with the first and third particularly important for developing economies.

Ramping up security will be a big ticket item which would have a stimulative effect if not offset by expenditure reductions in other areas. Just the placement of federal marshalls on flights will be an enormous employment program with 35,000 flights a day in the U.S. The additional federalization of airport security will not be cheap either.

The article is mainly generalities with the quoted essentially mouthing the obvious. So there is not much there of substance to agree with or disagree with. It is obvious that there will be a depression in air travel, entertainment, tourism, aircraft manufacturing and all areas associated with air travel from catering to cleaning to airport business services and goods. It will be off at least 50% from now on

I note the article's lack of Noble Prize winners and its overemphasis on economists not on the cutting edge such as Dornbush and Sachs. The latter was one of those sent over to Russia by Obubba Been Lying to help with their privitization program and to introduce them to capitalism. Those of us who know something about the field of economics wondered why someone from Harvard would be sent to explain capitalism. Like he would know. Lol.

[liberallarry]

I notice you unhesitatingly use the word "depression" to apply to certain sectors of our economy. In particular, air travel. I wonder about spillover into the larger economy. One of the other respondents wrote

"... the lubrication that easy international passage gives markets is going to be affected"

That looks like an understated way of saying Big Trouble, especially if a second terrorist attack focuses on the same sector.

[justshutupandtakeit]

There is no question that the transportation sector is going to be massively affected. Just today it was announced that 10 arrests have been made involving hazardous waste movements trucking. The implications are that shipping costs are going to increase hugely.

Costing of flying and the nature of trips will also change. Now rather than get to the airport an hour before your flight you will have to get there two hrs. before that so since that is tripled the time cost to the passenger has dramatically increased. Now you won't fly when it takes you an hour to get to the airport, three to check in unless the distance of the trip is long enought to justify the time cost. Hence, bye/bye commuter airlines. And quick day flights.

Another little garland we can hand at the door of Obubba been Lyin' And the man behind the curtain in charge of increasing airport security ta daaaa - Al Gore.

Thank God in Heaven he didn't permit the theft of that election in Florida. Thank God we have (barely) a Supreme Court that respects the Constitution (some of it.)